This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for May 16: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 2-1 (+1.02 units)
Season 46-52-1 (-7.87 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
Road Favorites - NA
Home Favorites (Largest) - Dbacks -400 vs Rockies, Dodgers -300 vs Angels, Phillies -225 vs Pirates, Cubs -215 vs White Sox
Totals - White Sox/Cubs 11.5, Dbacks/Rockies 9.5, Dodgers/Angels 9.5
Giants/Athletics 7.0, Rays/Marlins 7.5, Brewers/Twins 7.5, Astros/Rangers 7.5
Weather Conditions and Their Impact on MLB Betting Odds
Warmer weather for outdoor games tonight with temperatures in the 70-80 degree range along with low pressure and high humidity.
+ (high scoring), - (low scoring)
+++ White Sox at Cubs - 15-20 mph winds blowing out, mid 80s
+++ Guardians at Reds
+++ Cardinals at Royals - 15 mph winds blowing out, 80 degrees
--- Athletics at Giants - 55 degrees
--- Mariners at Padres - 59 degrees
MLB Line Movement
White Sox/Cubs 12.5 to 11.5
Dbacks -22, Brewers -22, Guardians -22, Cubs -20
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/15/25)
Top 7 (Mets, Twins, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, Padres). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 7 (Angels, Marlins, Dbacks, White Sox, Nationals, Orioles, Rockies). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bets and Predictions
The Orioles have been near the bottom against left-handed pitching, and they face one of the best pitchers in baseball (19th in WAR) in MacKenzie Gore. The lefty recently faced the Orioles on April 24th, going 6 innings and allowing 2 earned runs with 8 strikeouts and 1 walk.
Cade Povich ranks 121 out of 150 in WAR for starting pitchers with at least 20 innings. Neither team is playing great baseball with 2-8 records in their last 10 games. But the strong left-handed pitcher in Gore is where I will lean to in this game. I always look at the Nationals F5 only due to their bullpen being one of the worst in baseball.
MLB Best Bets: Nationals -0.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
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Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Insights
The Dodgers have a dominant 17-4 record with a 165 wRC+ split at home against right-handed pitching. They have averaged 6.62 runs per game at home and 8-2 to the OVER on their team total in their last 10 home games.
The Dodgers feast on bad pitching and the Angels are going with Jack Kochanowicz who has a 5.23 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His road splits are even worse with a 6.33 ERA and 12:8 K:BB in 21.1 innings.
Much like I wrote about in yesterday's pick with the Dodgers team total over, this is an optimal situation with the Dodgers against a pitcher that allows too much hard contact and too many baserunners.
MLB Best Bets: Dodgers OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
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Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
The Detroit Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball and their offense has put up 5.6 runs per game (7.8 runs per game in last 10). They are especially strong against right-handed pitching and face Bowden Francis on Friday evening. Francis ranks dead last in starting pitchers in WAR with at least 40 innings pitched.
The Tigers are 7-3 to the OVER on their team total in the last 10 games.
MLB Best Bets: Tigers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
MLB Picks Recap
- Nationals -0.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +114)
- Dodgers OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Tigers OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
