This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
NCAA Baseball Tournament: Regionals Best Bets Today
One of the main things I love about the tournament - regionals especially - is the chaos. The only predictable thing is the unpredictability. I feel like this year has seen the most upsets and one seeds going down in recent years, it's actually insane. I can't say I'm totally surprised though because this season has had the most vulnerable hosts and "top of the field" that I can remember, so it was bound to happen. But it's who some of these teams have been losing to that's the real shocker.
I've been ice cold this weekend trying to stay ahead of the curve with predicting upsets, but I was only able to get a few down unfortunately. The current slate on books are the elimination games, which means the loser goes home, and the winner has to face the 2-0 team and beat them twice to advance.
When you lose the first game, digging out of the 0-1 spot is EXTREMELY hard as you have to win four games in a row. A few teams are capable of it though. Once the 2-0 vs. 2-1 matchups are declared, the lines should be coming out for those starting later in the day.
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Sunday Regional Best Bet:
Oklahoma State +145 vs. Georgia
Initially, this was the matchups I projected for Saturday in the 1-0 spot. The fundamentally flawed Cowboys and Dawgs fell victim to the more fundamentally sound Duke Blue Devils. They should start a support group. Also it doesn't hurt that Ben Miller and his ridiculous mustache has been in college long enough that he could have gotten a nursing degree as he finishes up his SIXTH year of school. Kid thinks he's Van Wilder.
Anyway, instead of the the tasty 1-0 duel, it's an elimination game. Even better. For either team to win this region, they have to win three games in two days. That's why you DON'T WANT TO START 0-1. And that's why you don't pitch off game one unless you're absolutely sure you're going to win. OK State was my upset pick in the region at 10/1 as I saw UGA as a vulnerable host like 95 percent of the top seeds. Turns out I was only half right to this point.
The Cowboys have been slippery with their starting pitching decisions, but I believe it should be ace Harrison Bodendorf today as they've used Mario Pesca and Hunter Watkins already. Sean Youngerman is another possibility, but I think you have to go with the ace against an offense like UGA today. The Hawaii transfer has been one of the top arms in the country this season with his 2.77 ERA and 100 K/27 BB ratio in 87.2 IP. He did get roughed up against Kansas last week in the Big12 tournament, but before that, he had only surrendered five earned runs in his last 46.2 innings. It's been an unreal second half run for Bodendorf.
The Dawgs lineup has been mortal towards the end of the season. I mean they hung a 20 piece on Binghamton the other day, but it's really been a weird site for them. They've scored five or less runs in seven of their last 11 games dating back to May 3rd against Mizzou. This has been one of the top offenses all year, but now is not the time to go cold. The bread and butter is the long ball as their 140 lead the nation.
Georgia burned Leighton Finley and Brian Curley already out of the starting rotation, so who they opt to go with is a bit a of mystery as there's been a lot of moving parts this year. My best guess is likely JT Quinn who has been splitting reliever/starter duties. Quinn will likely be the opener and "just see how long you can go" guy. It's a 2.25 ERA and 43 K/15 BB ratio in 32 innings. He has yet to go past four innings in any outing either.
The reason I bet against UGA in this regional coming into the weekend was because the pitching is uncertain. OK State's lineup is a boom or bust group with a lot of swing and miss, but a ton of power. Nolan Schubart is one of my favorites. He went to tater town on Saturday. The positive thing is this pitching staff only has a few lefties, none are really that good, so the left/right split shouldn't kill them here.
Even if I didn't pick the Cowboys in this region, they shouldn't be a +145 dog with a pitching advantage.
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