This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We had a great showing in Thursday's article, leading to one of my biggest cashes of the season. What's funny is that the small slate made me only want to stack one team, and narrowing it down like that was the key to that solid payday. External variables play just as much of a factor as anything in DFS. With that said, we have seven games making up this Monday card and some fascinating options to dissect.
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Pitching
Clarke Schmidt, NYY vs. LAA ($8,700)
The Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball, and a breakout season from Schmidt is a major reason why. The righty had a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in limited time last season but has backed that with a 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this year. He's been even better recently, with Schmidt sporting a 2.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate across his last eight starts. Schmidt also scored at least 13 DraftKings points in all of those and should easily reach that in a home matchup with LA. The Angels rank 23rd in wOBA and dead-last in K rate (29 percent), with Schmidt entering this matchup as a -210 favorite. In a start against them less than a month ago, Schmidt spun six scoreless innings.
Ryan Pepiot, TB vs. BAL ($7,600)
Much like Schmidt, Pepiot has been one of the best pitchers in the AL over the last month. The Rays righty has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of 13 starts this season, registering a 1.78 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 rate across his last four starts. Pepiot also scored at least 21 DraftKings points in all of those, while scoring 17 or more DK points in both meetings with Baltimore since last season. This O's offense is much worse than the one we saw last year, with the Orioles ranked 25th in runs scored and 28th in K rate.
Top Targets
We recommended two high-end pitchers, so we will approach this article differently. I'll list some of the top options we want to use, but I'll save the write-ups for the Bargain Bats. Pairing those cheap bats with the expensive arms will be much easier, and it's the most helpful way to approach this slate from a lineup construction standpoint. With that in mind, here are some of the expensive bats we're willing to pay up for:
Aaron Judge, NYY ($6,500)
Shohei Ohtani, LAD ($6,300)
Cal Raleigh, SEA ($6,000)
Trea Turner, PHI ($5,800)
James Wood, WAS ($5,700)
Kyle Schwarber, PHI ($5,500)
CJ Abrams, WAS ($5,400)
Julio Rodriguez, SEA ($5,100)
Fernando Tatis, SD ($4,900)
Bargain Bats
Jasson Dominguez, NYY (vs. Jose Soriano) $3,700
The Yankees' lineup is stacked with superstars, but Dominguez is a sneaky option in the bottom half of the order. The former top prospect has been turning around his season over the last month, providing a .345 OBP and .776 OPS across his last 27 outings. That's closer to the .373 OBP and .822 OPS we saw in the minors, and it's just a matter of time before he creeps even closer to those numbers. Facing a righty with a poor WHIP should keep Jasson headed in the right direction, with Dominguez generating a .350 OBP and .837 OPS against right-handers since 2023. We'll talk about Soriano's unsightly WHIP later on!
Jake Meyers, HOU (vs. Mitch Spence) $3,700
It's nearly impossible to fill a Yordan Alvarez-sized hole, but Meyers has quietly been a key contributor for the 'Stros. The outfielder has been hitting fifth or sixth every day, with Meyers maintaining a .296 AVG and .763 OPS. That's all you can ask for from such an affordable player, but it looks even better since Meyers has a .395 OBP and .858 OPS across his last 39 outings. We didn't even mention that this outfielder has a .369 OBP and .773 OPS against right-handers this year!
J.P. Crawford, SEA (vs. Lucas Giolito) $3,500
Crawford has always been an underrated real-life player, but he's developed into a DFS darling this season. The shortstop has been hitting leadoff in Seattle, sporting a .295 AVG, .410 OBP and .811 OPS this year. That's not far from what we saw two years ago, but the splits are even more stupendous. Crawford has compiled a .331 AVG, .429 OBP and .861 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. He also has a .538 OBP and 1.131 OPS across his last 14 fixtures, while facing a pitcher with a 5.45 ERA and 1.54 WHIP!
Gavin Sheets, SD (vs. Ben Casparius/Shohei Ohtani) $3,400
Sheets finally saw a full-time role with the ChiSox last season, and it's clearly allowed the slugger to be more comfortable at the plate. In his first season in San Diego, Sheets is hitting fifth against right-handers. It's easy to understand why, with the slugger sporting a .281 AVG, .342 OBP and .869 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. We don't mind that Sheets squares off with a pitcher making his first start, with Casparius collecting a 4.80 ERA and 1.39 WHIP between Double-A and Triple-A as a starter. There is some talk that Ohtani will make his debut as a pitcher, but we expect Casparius to pitch more innings.
Stacks to Consider
Houston Astros at Athletics (Spence): Jeremy Pena ($4,500), Jose Altuve ($3,900), Christian Walker ($3,700), Meyers ($3,700)
The 3.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP from Spence are surprising, but we don't trust it. We're talking about a guy who had a 4.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across his final 21 starts last season, and he will get bitten by the nightmarish Sacramento park. That's been one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball this season, with Spence posting a 6.16 ERA and 1.53 WHIP there. That's terrifying against a resurgent Houston lineup, with the 'Stros scoring 5.3 runs per game across their last nine outings.
Pena is the first player we have to recommend when talking about the Astros because he's been their best bat as their leadoff hitter. The shortstop is on pace for over 20 homers and 30 steals while amassing a .328 AVG, .380 OBP and .871 OPS. Altuve is the veteran starting to get hot, accruing a .359 AVG and 1.022 OPS across his last 20 fixtures. As for Walker, this slugger has been struggling mightily, but his .774 OPS across his last 18 fixtures is a sign of things turning around. This slugger has a .465 SLG and .790 OPS since 2022!
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels (Soriano): Judge ($6,500), Jazz Chisholm ($5,100), Cody Bellinger ($4,600), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500), Dominguez ($3,700)
The Yankees have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, and they're a safe stack against anyone. The Bronx Bombers rank second in OBP and third in runs scored. That's no surprise when evaluating the talent, and those numbers creep even higher in a tiny park like Yankee Stadium. All of that is horrifying for a subpar pitcher like Soriano, posting a nightmarish 1.50 WHIP.
Judge is the best option on every slate. The MVP is amid one of the best stretches in MLB history, providing a .464 OBP, .722 SLG and 1.187 OPS since the start of last season. Chisholm just returned from an injury, but he has an .816 OPS against righties this year. Bellinger also has the platoon advantage against Soriano, accumulating a .881 OPS across his last 30 fixtures. Goldschmidt is quietly having a bounce-back season in NY, generating a .369 OBP and .822 OPS.
