This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
This is a fascinating slate to dissect. All of the top-notch pitchers seem to have challenging matchups, but the lower-end pitchers aren't bad enough to fully stack against. That should make this a fun slate from a lineup construction standpoint because there are millions of ways to approach it. That's why we're going with two under-the-radar pitchers, so let's go ahead and start there!
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Pitching
Chad Patrick, MIL vs. PIT ($8,600)
We could use almost any pitcher against the Pirates right now. Pittsburgh has been the worst offense over the last two months, sitting 25th in K rate, 26th in OBP, 29th in wOBA and dead-last in runs scored. That's terrifying against a breakout rookie who had a 2.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP before struggling against Atlanta and Chicago in his last two starts. Those are tough offenses to navigate, but we're willing to overlook it since Patrick allowed three runs or fewer through his first 13 starts. He also has a 10.9 K/9 rate across his last six outings. Not to mention, Patrick has a 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home this season, entering this matchup as a -200 favorite.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI at CWS ($7,300)
The numbers from ERod are far from impressive, but some positive regression is right around the corner. The 5.93 ERA and 1.62 WHIP are hideous, but he's allowed four runs or fewer in 10 of his 12 starts. The two stinkers were against the Dodgers and Mets, with Rodriguez registering a 4.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 rate in the other 10 outings. That's more in line with his 3.88 xERA and 4.05 FIP, which point to a future turnaround. The beginning of that should happen against the White Sox, with Chicago sitting 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season.
Top Targets
Seiya Suzuki, CHC (vs. Matthew Liberatore) $5,200
The Cubs have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, but there's not enough discussion about how special Suzuki has been. The outfielder is flirting with a career high in dingers at the halfway point, providing a .519 SLG and .828 OPS. That's backed by an impressive .347 career OBP, but what we really love are Suzuki's splits. Suzuki has a .410 OBP, .718 SLG and 1.128 OPS against southpaws this season. Stacking Chicago is easy with Kyle Tucker ($6,200), Pete Crow-Armstrong ($5,900) and Ian Happ ($4,000) all rolling right now. We don't mind that strategy against a struggling southpaw, and Liberatore has amassed an 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP across his last four starts.
Manny Machado, SD (vs. Mitchell Parker) $4,900
Manny is quietly having another magical season in San Diego. The perennial All-Star is on pace for 25 homers and 15 steals, generating a .373 OBP and .876 OPS. A ton of that damage has happened recently, with Machado maintaining a .394 OBP and .940 OPS across his last 48 fixtures. Machado also has the platoon advantage against Parker, posting a .363 OBP and .945 OPS against left-handers this year. That should be easy to duplicate against Parker, and we'll dive into his averages in the Stacks To Consider section.
Bargain Bats
Alec Burleson, STL (vs. Ben Brown) $3,800
The Cardinals have been better than most would have expected, and the insertion of Burleson into the three-hole has been a major reason why. The outfielder has a .314 AVG and .852 OPS, but has been even better recently. Burleson has a .357 AVG, .611 SLG and .996 OPS across his last 36 fixtures. He also has the platoon advantage against Brown, with the Cubs righty compiling a 5.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Lars Nootbaar ($3,700) and Brendan Donovan ($3,700) also have the platoon advantage against Brown.
Sal Frelick, MIL (vs. Pirates Bullpen) $4,000
Anytime you can find a leadoff hitter atop a quality lineup at $4K, you need to use him. That's what we have with Frelick because he's been moved to that optimal lineup spot over the last two weeks. He's earned the promotion via a .371 AVG and .836 OPS across his last eight games. We didn't even mention that he's on pace for 30 steals, which should bode well against a bunch of Pirates relievers on a bullpen day. If you want to stack Milwaukee, Christian Yelich ($4,600), Jackson Chourio ($4,400) and Rhys Hoskins ($3,700) are all good pairings with Frelick.
Stacks to Consider
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz): Jarren Duran ($4,600), Wilyer Abreu ($4,200), Abraham Toro ($3,300)
Boston has one of the weakest lineups in baseball without Rafael Devers, but there will be some great chances to stack them from a DFS standpoint. All of these guys remain way too cheap, and we definitely want to use them against a pitcher like Kochanowicz. The Angels righty has a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP while posting an ugly 6.8 K/9 rate.
If you want to stack the Sox, Duran has to be the first player in your build. The All-Star is having a down season, but it's hard to argue with an .804 OPS over the last three years. In addition, Duran has an .862 OPS against righties in that span while recording almost all of his steals and dingers against them. As for Abreu, he has an .834 OPS against righties this year, while picking up multi-hit games in both outings since his return. Toro is the cheap option of the bunch, tallying a .841 OPS against right-handers.
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals (Parker): Fernando Tatis ($5,000), Machado ($4,900), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300)
The Padres have one of the sneakiest offenses in baseball, and they're particularly dangerous against lefties with these stud righties atop this lineup. Let's start with Tatis, as the superstar sports a .875 career OPS while showcasing one of the best power-speed combos in the sport. We already talked about Manny's superb splits, but Boegarts has the platoon advantage as well. X has been slow to get going, but he has a .400 AVG and 1.053 OPS across the last week.
The main reason we want to stack San Diego is this matchup with Parker. This lefty is amid the worst stretch of his career, collecting a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP across his last 10 starts. That includes games against Colorado, Miami and Texas in his three most recent starts, so this will certainly be a step up in competition.
