This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
The Thursday waters can be murky from a DFS standpoint, and this slate will be one of the dirtiest. We have just six games in total, and four of them are during the day. While we have two night games, all of the big prize pools will be during the day. That leaves the options extremely thin, especially since there aren't really any aces available. With that said, there are two talented pitchers in pristine spots, so let's start there!
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Pitching
AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL vs. WAS ($10,200)
Some short stints at this level have limited Smith-Shawver's ability to break out, but it feels like we might finally be there. The righty is coming off the best two-start stretch of his career, compiling a 0.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in that span. He's also allowed three runs or fewer in all six starts this season, scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in four straight fixtures. The form should be easy to duplicate in a home matchup with Washington, and he threw 5.1 scoreless innings against the Nats in their last matchup. That's why he enters this game as a -230 favorite.
Nick Martinez, CIN vs. CWS ($8,600)
Martinez has been a different pitcher since joining Cincy, maintaining a 3.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP since signing with the Reds last season. He's allowed five hits or fewer in three of his last four starts, posting a 2.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in that span. It's always scarier to recommend Martinez in Great American Ball Park, but this matchup should nullify any of those concerns. The White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since the start of last season. That's why Martinez is a -220 favorite in this magical matchup.
Top Targets
Marcell Ozuna, ATL (vs. Trevor Williams) $3,500
Ozuna's power numbers aren't what we've become accustomed to, but we're encouraged by his new-look plate discipline. The slugger has a career-high .424 OBP this season en route to a .868 OPS. That pairs beautifully with the power we've seen over recent years, with Ozuna obtaining a .364 OBP and .916 OPS in the two years prior. The matchup against Williams is wonderful too, and we'll dive into that in the Stacks To Consider section. Not to mention, Ozuna has a .371 OBP in 35 plate appearances against the righty.
Gunnar Henderson, BAL (vs. Chris Paddack) $3,300
Henderson got off to a slow start in his return from the IL, but he's been stellar since then. The 2024 MVP candidate has a .300 AVG and .906 OPS across his last 25 games. He's also scored at least 28 FanDuel points in three of his last five outings, which looks even better since Henderson has a .285 AVG, .555 SLG and .909 OPS against righties since 2023. Those sensational splits should bode well against a pitcher like Paddack, who has posted a 4.94 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last three seasons.
Bargain Bats
George Springer, TOR (vs. Zack Littell) $3,200
Springer is having an excellent season in Toronto, and it feels like no one is taking notice. The former All-Star has been at the heart of the Blue Jays' lineup, amassing a .404 OBP and .908 OPS in a bounce-back season. Those are his best numbers since 2021, but we're talking about a guy with a .350 career OBP and .820 OPS. It's not like Littell is a pitcher we need to fade, with the righty registering a 4.40 ERA.
TJ Friedl, CIN (vs. Bryse Wilson) $3,000
Friedl has remained affordable all season, and it's difficult to understand why. This guy has been the everyday leadoff hitter for one of the sneakiest offenses in baseball. That premier lineup spot has led to Friedl providing a .289 AVG, .380 OBP and .802 OPS across his last 33 fixtures. That's over a month of dominance, and we didn't even mention that he has a .366 OBP and .793 OPS against righties this year. Wilson is also one of the worst pitchers on this slate, and we'll talk about that in the next section.
Stacks to Consider
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Cincinnati Reds vs. White Sox (Wilson): Elly De La Cruz ($3,800), Matt McLain ($3,000), Austin Hays ($3,200) and Friedl ($3,000)
Many people might not realize this, but Cincy has developed into one of the best offenses in baseball. The Reds rank 13th in OBP and eighth in runs scored this year. What we really love is that they face a bad pitcher in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. Wilson toes the rubber for the ChiSox, sporting a 5.83 FIP and 1.73 WHIP this season.
If we stack Cincy, De La Cruz has to be the first player in our build. He's top-three in fantasy points since the beginning of last season, posting even better splits against righties. As for McLain, the infielder has 21 homers and 24 steals across 123 career games, establishing himself as one of the best per-game producers in DFS. Hays is also having a breakout season in Cincy, compiling a .366 OBP and .951 OPS.
Atlanta vs. Washington Nationals (Williams): Matt Olson ($3,100), Austin Riley ($3,300), Ozuna ($3,500) and Alex Verdugo ($2,800)
There's no question that Atlanta has played below expectations this season, but this talented offense is starting to turn things around. This has been a top-five lineup for a handful of years, and they're averaging 4.8 runs per game across their last 24 outings. That positive regression should continue against Williams. The Washington righty has a 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP this season and has yet to record a quality start through eight outings.
Olson has struggled along with the rest of the lineup, but he's too good to be this cheap in a matchup like this. The first baseman has a .360 OBP, .516 SLG and .876 OPS over the last three seasons and has the platoon advantage against the righty. As for Riley, he has a .326 AVG and .889 OPS across his last 33 outings. Verdugo is the bargain option as the leadoff hitter, providing a .346 OBP and .746 OPS against righties since his signing.
