Adam Frazier

Frazier hit a modest .238 last season, marking the second time in three years that he's finished the year below .240. That's an issue for a player who's averaged just eight homers and eight steals per 600 plate appearances over the course of his career. When the hits fall as they did in 2021, when a .339 BABIP helped him to a .305 average, he contributes enough in that category to have broader fantasy appeal, but when his BABIP drops to .268 like it did last season, he doesn't do much outside of deeper formats. Expecting much more than last year's career-high 11 steals in his age-31 season seems unwise, as does expecting him to suddenly hit for even passable power. His 1.5% barrel rate and 23.8% hard hit rate both sat in the second percentile. Between his contact and defensive versatility, Frazier still has enough to offer MLB clubs, but he does so little else that it's no surprise the Orioles will be his fourth team in the last three years.

Through July 25, Frazier posted a .324/.388/.448, prompting the Pirates to deal him to the Padres where his versatility would fortify a roster with playoff intentions. Frazier slashed .267/.327/.335 after the trade, but still finished with a career high average and on-base mark. Frazier's calling card is contact has he fanned only 10.8% of the time, a career low. Frazier needs to put the ball in play as often as possible since he generates some of the weakest contact in the league with a 2nd percentile average exit velocity and 3rd percentile hard-hit rate. The Padres dealt Frazier to Seattle which does no favors for his limited power but could aid steals. He's more likely to match his career high 10 swipes set last season than his personal best 10 homers in 2018 and 2019. Frazier's allure is a solid batting average floor. Note he begins the 2022 only eligible at second base but could pick up outfield.

Frazier was able to produce at close to a league-average level with the bat in 2019 even as he played through injuries, complementing his plus defense at second base. The defense remained excellent in 2020 and in fact Frazier ranked in the top 10 in all of baseball in Outs Above Average, but the offense declined significantly. He nearly doubled his HR/FB rate from the previous season and continued to put bat-to-ball at a good clip (15.2 K%), but his offensive rate stats dipped across the board regardless and Frazier was caught stealing three times in four attempts, making him an ugly 20-for-37 on the basepaths in his career. The batted-ball numbers offer no reprieve; Frazier was in the bottom 7% of the league in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. With Pittsburgh, Frazier should continue to play every day, but he's merely an injury-replacement option in mixed leagues.

Aside from garnering more playing time, Frazier's 2019 season was a near carbon copy of his 2017 campaign. Oddly, 2018's slugging bested them both, despite the increased offensive environment in the bookend years. Frazier's 97 wRC+ rates him a tick below average and his five stolen bases don't change that. That said, the batting average stability Frazier offers (.278, .277, .276 the past three seasons) can aid a fantasy roster stocked with homers and steals, but a bit deficient in the BA department. Frazier's calling card is an 85% career contact rate. His average exit velocity is 13th percentile, but a low 30% flyball rate and above-average speed help maintain a BABIP a tick above league norm. Better served as a reserve swinging between second and corner outfield, Frazier is ticketed to see regular keystone at-bats. He's mixed viable with the proper roster composition but is best suited for NL-only.

Frazier showed two abilities in the minor leagues: strong bat-to-ball skills and a willingness to steal bases. The latter was on display in 2017, but disappeared in 2018 despite nearly identical on-base percentages and batting averages. The disappointment in steals was offset by a gain in his power, as he had the first double-digit homer season of his professional career. He doubled his home-run-to-flyball ratio despite little change in his average exit velocity or launch angle. Statcast data shows that his 2018 numbers overachieved based on the quality of his contact, so a repeat of the double-digit homer total seems unlikely. Perhaps fewer home runs will lead him to attempt more steals in 2019, but this is otherwise a compiler skill set -- a player who gives you some contributions across the board but not enough in any one category to push the needle. There's some additional value in his positional flexibility.

Frazier turned in a decent sophomore season after a promising 2016 season between Triple-A and the big-league level. He posted high on-base percentages and batting averages throughout the minors and did the same in his rookie season over 160 plate appearances. Last year, the OBP remained good but the average slipped a bit. Despite the nine steals, he is not an efficient basestealer. He was caught five times last year and that comes on the heels of a 21-for-37 showing between Triple-A and the majors in 2016. In fact, he has been successful just 58 percent of the time over his entire career. Given the breakeven rate for steals is around 70 percent, Frazier seems likely to get a restrictor plate from the front office, and he instantly becomes a replacement-level player with an empty batting average. In short, this is roster filler.

The Pirates are grooming Frazier for a super utility role in 2017. The 25-year-old saw time at second base, shortstop and in the outfield last season, though he only qualifies in the outfield in leagues requiring a 20-game minimum. While he's not particularly strong defensively, he's shown an ability to hit for average wherever he's played. Frazier batted .333 for Triple-A Indianapolis in 2016 and holds a career .300/.363/.378 line in the minors. His triple-slash with Pittsburgh was almost a mirror image. Fantasy owners won't find power -- he's hit a combined five homers in four pro seasons -- or speed -- he's never stolen more than 17 bases -- but Frazier's a strong bet to hit for a high batting average.

If one focuses on what Frazier cannot do, his below average power and fringe average speed will quickly become apparent. Admittedly, those are two pretty big aspects of a hitting prospect’s fantasy value. However, for dynasty league owners who play in deeper leagues, or prefer a general glass-half-full mentality, there are three things he can do quite well that should garner attention. First, he played primarily shortstop (58 games) and center field (29 games) last year at Double-A Altoona — two of the most valuable defensive positions in baseball. This speaks to his athleticism. Second, he has a plus hit tool, although this skill typically only manifests itself in singles and doubles, as just 10 of his 318 career hits have been triples or home runs. Lastly, he posted a 42:34 K:BB in 423 plate appearances last year, demonstrating one of the best such rates in Double-A. Shortstops with Frazier’s hitting ability and advanced approach are quite rare, but his lack of a high ceiling also cannot be debated.