2025 Stats
W-L
0-2
ERA
4.61
WHIP
1.98
K
17
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Smith-Shawver has entered the post-hype phase of being a prospect. He surprisingly made five big-league starts as a 20-year-old in 2023 and cruised through three levels of the minors. However, he was less outstanding over 20 starts at Triple-A in 2024, which, combined with an oblique injury, limited him to one MLB start in the regular season and one emergency start in the postseason. Smith-Shawver has always had good fastball velocity (96.2 mph average in 2024), but the pitch lacked the same caliber of movement that it had in 2023, which led to him giving up 20 home runs in 87 innings at Triple-A. He walked 11 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2024 and 15.2 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2023, so it's not a given that Smith-Shawver will throw enough strikes to start. He's just entering his age-22 season, so it's too early to give up on the athletic righty, but 2025 is his last option year, so he'll need to show sharper stuff and more consistency to continue to be viewed as a rotation piece in Atlanta. Read Past Outlooks

Moving to Triple-A
Atlanta optioned Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Though Atlanta won't welcome Spencer Strider (elbow) back from the 15-day injured list until next week, Smith-Shawver will head to the minors now, with the team electing to proceed with Bryce Elder as its No. 5 starter. Smith-Shawver went 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.98 WHIP while issuing eight walks and striking out 17 over 13.2 innings, but an elevated .447 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB% suggest that he likely would have been due for some positive regression. The 22-year-old could be back in the majors quickly if Elder struggles, or if another rotation spot opens up due to injury.
Though Atlanta won't welcome Spencer Strider (elbow) back from the 15-day injured list until next week, Smith-Shawver will head to the minors now, with the team electing to proceed with Bryce Elder as its No. 5 starter. Smith-Shawver went 0-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.98 WHIP while issuing eight walks and striking out 17 over 13.2 innings, but an elevated .447 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB% suggest that he likely would have been due for some positive regression. The 22-year-old could be back in the majors quickly if Elder struggles, or if another rotation spot opens up due to injury.
Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
83
Last 10 Games
83
Last 5 Games
83
How many pitches does AJ Smith-Shawver generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does AJ Smith-Shawver generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2025
-39%
BAA vs LHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2023vs Left | .233 | 27 | 14 | 21 | 6 |
Since 2023vs Right | .237 | 14 | 7 | 18 | 3 |
2025vs Left | .265 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
2025vs Right | .435 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
2024vs Left | .000 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
2024vs Right | .300 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
2023vs Left | .240 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
2023vs Right | .116 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-13%
ERA at Home
2025
-31%
ERA on Road
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2023Home | 3.70 | 1.27 | 24.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 |
Since 2023Away | 4.26 | 1.53 | 19.0 | 10.4 | 4.7 |
2025Home | 5.79 | 2.14 | 4.2 | 11.6 | 5.8 |
2025Away | 4.00 | 1.89 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 |
2024Home | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024Away | 0.00 | 1.15 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 |
2023Home | 3.20 | 1.07 | 19.2 | 5.9 | 3.7 |
2023Away | 7.94 | 1.24 | 5.2 | 11.1 | 4.8 |
Minor League Left/Right Pitching Splits (AAA)
Since 2023
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2025
-77%
BAA vs RHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2023vs Left | .208 | 82 | 35 | 50 | 11 |
Since 2023vs Right | .202 | 77 | 33 | 50 | 13 |
2025vs Left | .400 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
2025vs Right | .091 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
2024vs Left | .205 | 52 | 27 | 33 | 9 |
2024vs Right | .225 | 52 | 13 | 36 | 11 |
2023vs Left | .188 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 2 |
2023vs Right | .171 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 2 |
Stat Review
How does AJ Smith-Shawver compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
2.13K/9
11.2BB/9
5.3HR/9
1.3Fastball
94.6 mphERA
4.61WHIP
1.98BABIP
.441GB/FB
1.40Left On Base
82.6%Exit Velocity
85.2 mphBarrels/BBE
12.5%Spin Rate
1741 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
32.8%Swinging Strike
13.2%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
The second-youngest pitcher to make five-plus starts in the majors last year (only Eury Perez was younger), Smith-Shawver has an impressive combination of youth, size and stuff. He dominated over three starts at High-A and two starts at Double-A before spending the bulk of his age-20 season going back and forth between Triple-A and the majors. The 6-foot-3 righty sat 93-96 mph with his plus fastball while touching 98 mph in the big leagues. He has touched triple digits in the past, but command and control have been lacking at times, so he may have dialed back his velocity in favor of more control during his 25.1 innings in the majors. Smith-Shawver threw his mid-80s slider 22 percent of the time while throwing his upper-70s curveball and fourth-pitch changeup each over 10 percent of the time, so it's a true four-pitch mix. All three secondary offerings can flash plus, but his breaking balls are more consistent than his changeup. He missed over two weeks with shoulder inflammation in the second half but returned to make four appearances in September. All told, he tallied 87.1 innings across four levels, so we can hope for around 140 innings in 2024 with good health. The main thing to keep in mind with Smith-Shawver is that he is still developing and could be far from a finished product. His command, secondary offerings and sequencing could all improve over the next couple years.
More Fantasy News

Solid in no-decision
Smith-Shawver did not factor into the decision in Saturday's 5-4 win against the Rays, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Falls to 0-2
Smith-Shawver (0-2) took the loss Saturday against the Marlins, allowing three runs on seven hits and three walks over 4.2 innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Short outing vs. Padres
Smith-Shawver (0-1) took the loss Sunday against San Diego, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks over four innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Set for rotation spot
Smith-Shawver is expected to begin the season in the Atlanta rotation, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Could be part of initial rotation
Smith-Shawver was bumped from his Grapefruit League start Thursday and will pitch instead against the Rays on Friday, a move that suggests he's being put on schedule to start March 31 against the Dodgers, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Might be trade chip
Atlanta could consider trading Smith-Shawver this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Among Atlanta's top three pitching prospects in Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Cam Caminiti, it sounds like Smith-Shawver might be the one the club is most willing to part with. The 22-year-old made one spot start in the majors in 2024 but spent most of the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 4.86 ERA and 104:40 K:BB over 87 innings.
Among Atlanta's top three pitching prospects in Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Cam Caminiti, it sounds like Smith-Shawver might be the one the club is most willing to part with. The 22-year-old made one spot start in the majors in 2024 but spent most of the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 4.86 ERA and 104:40 K:BB over 87 innings.