Harrison Bader

There have been flashes of fantasy upside over the course of his first seven major-league seasons, but Bader has yet to truly put it all together at age 29 and is coming off one of the worst years of his career. He stole 20 bases in 23 attempts between the Yankees and Reds in 2023 but posted a miserable .274 on-base percentage across 344 plate appearances. That is an incredibly low OBP for a player who tends to rank in the 85th-to-95th percentile in sprint speed. Bader plays tremendous defense in center field, but he almost seems allergic to drawing walks and struggles to make hard contact against right-handed pitching. Given that most people and pitchers are right-handed, it's difficult to project how he is ever going to break into the ranks of reliable fantasy outfielders. Find steals elsewhere.

Bader had a .256/.303/.370 slash line through 72 games before he suffered a foot injury in late June, and the Cardinals shipped him off to the Yankees at the trade deadline. He didn't see the field for New York until Sept. 20 and had a .528 OPS down the closing stretch of the regular season, though he came alive during the postseason with five home runs in nine games. The Yankees featured a carousel of players in center field last year, including Aaron Judge, but Bader should take on that role in 2023, which is the final year of his contract. However, he's averaged only 114 games over the past four full seasons, and his fantasy upside remains limited given his track record.

Bader's season was a mixed bag. His 110 wRC+ was above average for the third time in the last four seasons, but it was fueled by a .306 BABIP at least 20 points higher then pegged by its estimators. Any hope of a power spike in his age-27 was quelled with a 2-mph exit velocity loss on fly balls. On the other hand, Bader's 21.2% K% was a personal best, resulting from more aggressiveness, in and out of the zone. Durability remains an issue as Bader's debut was delayed about a month with a forearm strain, then he missed over a month with a fractured rib. Buoyed by 97th percentile spring speed, Bader's defense remains top-notch, assuring he'll be in the lineup when healthy. There is a place for Bader in a fantasy lineup since he chips in across the board, just beware there is more downside than upside and he's averaged only 123 games played over the last three full seasons.

Bader is one of those players who is valued much more by the real baseball team than fantasy players. Bader displays exceptional defensive abilities in the outfield, has elite speed and a top 20th percentile barrel rate. Yet, that is where the fun ends and his speed and Barrel% only go so far in fantasy. Bader did not do anything in 2020 he had not already showed at the big-league level other than strike out at his career-worst rate. He has been rather terrible in right-on-right matchups the past two seasons with a .210/.319/.384 slash line and a 30% strikeout rate and his expected stats from both 2019 and 2020 paint a disappointing picture. Bader's defense will keep him on the roster and in the lineup more often than not, but he is headed down the Kevin Kiermaier career path where you are left wanting so much more that simply never arrives.

Last season was a big disappointment for Bader. Is all hope lost? No, though a K-rate pushing 30% will be tough to overcome. On account of all that swing and miss, Bader saw his BA dip close to 60 points. He did his damage against fastballs, hitting just .141 against breaking pitches and .178 against offspeed pitches. There were a few positives, however. Bader lifted his walk rate from 7.3% to 11.3% while trimming his chase rate and improving his zone-contact rate. He shaved five percentage points off his infield-flyball rate. Bader's biggest contributions to the Cardinals came in the outfield, where he graded out as one of the five best defenders in the game by Outs Above Average. He also stole double-digit bases for the fifth time in as many pro seasons. A starting role is not guaranteed, but the hype is gone, which means the opportunity cost should be minimal for those who want to roll the dice a bit.

Defense is his calling card, but Bader's no slouch with the bat. When accounting for park effects and the current run environment, Bader graded out as 6% better than league average at the plate (106 wRC+) as a rookie. He did benefit from some good fortune on balls in play (.358 BABIP), but it wasn't all luck. He used his above-average speed to beat out groundballs at the highest rate among players with 400 plate appearances; a whopping 17.8% of Bader's groundballs resulted in infield hits. He showed good instincts on the basepaths, successfully converting 15 of 18 stolen-base attempts. His modest .251/.317/.378 line against same-handed pitching suggests he could be overexposed in an everyday role, but his stellar defense will give him a long leash. With stolen-base totals at their lowest levels in decades, Bader has quite a bit of appeal, as he has the speed to reach 20 bases while also contributing double-digit homers.

Gone are the days where the Cardinals were satisfied with players like Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong, Randal Grichuk and the like occupying prominent spots in the lineup, and that's bad news for Bader. He fit the prototype of the Mike Matheny-era Cardinals -- a player who maximizes his natural ability but lacks the impact tools to be a game changer at the plate or in the field. With the starting outfield set for 2018 with three everyday players, Bader will be competing for a bench role this spring. He has always mashed lefties, which is a strength that Matheny would undoubtedly make use of if Bader is on the bench. Unfortunately, he is subpar against righties and has to sell out to access his average raw power, which means he will always be a bit of a batting average risk without enough power to make it worthwhile. He is capable of playing all three outfield spots and is an above-average runner. Essentially, he is a prototypical fourth outfielder.

The dominant narrative with Bader seems to be his dramatic decline in production after being promoted from the Texas League (143 wRC+) to the Pacific Coast League (74 wRC+). However, his splits against right-handed pitching should be what really troubles his dynasty league owners. He rode a 1.375 OPS against lefties at Low-A to prominence last offseason, and boosted his mark against southpaws even further to 1.485 OPS at Double-A in 2016. All the while, Bader was a middling hitter against righties, putting up splits of .270/.337/.399 and .249/.319/.377 at Low-A and Double-A, respectively. His solid defense in center field, above-average speed and ability to crush left-handed pitching will undoubtedly get him to the big leagues at some point in the next year or two, but it seems likely that he will be limited to a part-time role. Look to deal him before this reality becomes common knowledge.

The 100th overall pick in the 2015 draft started his professional career as well as any player in his class. Bader, a late bloomer with the stick out of the University of Florida, received a promotion to Low-A Peoria after posting a 1.055 OPS in seven games with short-season State College. He clearly needed more of a challenge, and he handled that challenge, posting a .301/.364/.505 slash line with nine home runs and 15 steals in 228 plate appearances. Despite being slightly younger than the average player at that level, Bader’s .869 OPS would have been tied for the second best mark in the Midwest League if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. His 49:15 K:BB in 61 games suggests he has the approach to continue his success in an assignment to High-A Palm Beach as a 21-year-old, and if he continues to rake, the 6-foot center fielder could find himself at Double-A shortly after he turns 22 on June 3.