Josh Lowe

Lowe came into the 2023 draft season surrounded with the usual uncertain playing time which clouds outlooks of Tampa Bay players but finished the season as the 12th-best fantasy outfielder. We knew Lowe could steal bags as he swiped them at an 88% success rate dating back to 2019 and at a 96% rate (54 of 56) over the previous two seasons heading into 2023. Lowe not only made the opening day roster, but he went 32 of 35 stealing bases while throwing in 20 homers and a solid .292 batting average. Lowe's overall numbers took a hit in July when he went through a massive slump which saw him hit .197 with a 34% strikeout rate and we later learned he and his family were dealing with some unfortunate medical news regarding his mom's health. Lowe rebounded nicely to finish the season and should find himself in the upper half of the lineup on a more regular basis in 2024 to take full advantage of his baserunning acumen.

Lowe is a well-seasoned minor leaguer with lots of production fueled by a friendly Durham Athletic Park, but he has exactly 200 major league plate appearances over the past two season with little to write home about. Some of the limitation are the typical contract stalling techniques Tampa Bay is well known for, but some of Lowe's issues are of his own doing. He has had some issues in the field, which is not a good thing for a team that puts a premium on outfield defense. Lowe has also had a very similar issue to his older brother Nathaniel in struggles with good velocity up in the zone. The power numbers in Triple-A should not be the focus as much as the walk rate and his stolen base prowess as that is where his value truly lies. Lowe is 84 of his last 95 in stolen base attempts (88%) and has a top 50 home-to-first speed just .01 behind Oneil Cruz. The club will want to get that talent in the lineup somewhere but his defense and bat will need to earn it because the outfield depth chart is still thick even with the departure of Kiermaier.

Lowe put the finishing touches on his minor-league development last season, logging a career-best slash line (.291/.381/.535) and wRC+ (142) while doing his typical damage on the bases (26-for-26) and reaching a new level in the power department (22 HR, .244 ISO) in 111 games. Now he just needs an opening in the Rays outfield. In last year's outlook we noted that Lowe is the heir apparent to Kevin Kiermaier, and Kiermaier remains under contract for one more season at the time of the lockout. The Rays are often active in the offseason trade market, so it's difficult to predict how things will shake out. That may mean that Lowe is a shrewd target with an ADP outside the top 350 in NFBC Draft Champions leagues, as he could be going 100 spots higher if there were a clear path to playing time, and it sure seems like he's ready. In addition to plus power and plus-plus speed, Lowe is a plus defender in center field with a plus arm. An athletic 6-foot-4 specimen, Lowe will always have some holes in his swing, but he takes his walks and could go 20/20 as early as this year with over 500 plate appearances.

Lowe spent his age-22 season at the Rays' alternate training site, where he was the team's best outfield defender. He would have spent most of a normal season at Triple-A, which is where he will be assigned to start 2021. As a lefty-hitting center fielder, Lowe is the heir apparent to Kevin Kiermaier, who is under contract through 2022. Lowe may already be a better all-around player than Kiermaier, so he should unseat him sooner than later, especially now that he is on the 40-man roster. Long, lean and athletic, Lowe had success at Double-A (128 wRC+) and in the Arizona Fall League (.937 OPS) in 2019, even amid some swing and miss issues (25.4 K% at Double-A, 27.6 K% in the AFL). He has shown a propensity to take his walks and is undeniably more valuable in OBP leagues. The big draw for fantasy, however, is Lowe's potential to go 20/20, even if he sits against most lefties.

The younger, more dynamic brother of Nate Lowe, Josh is a good center fielder with the power/speed to go 25/25 in a full MLB season. There is no evidence he will ever hit for a very high batting average, but with walk rates north of 10% at High-A and Double-A, a middling AVG may not matter much in real life or in OBP/points leagues. Including a red-hot run in the Arizona Fall League to close the year, Lowe hit .277/.356/.474 with nine home runs, 16 steals (on 18 attempts), a 10.8 BB% and 24.5 K% in 69 games from July on. Standing 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, Lowe should remain a plus athlete into his late-20s. He uses the whole field and his 35.4 GB% at Double-A was elite. In terms of true center fielders, Lowe is clearly the next man up behind Kevin Kiermaier on the organizational depth chart. Kiermaier (1.5 fWAR in 2019) is under contract through 2022, but Lowe could unseat him as the everyday option by 2021.

For a toolsy 19-year-old in his first year in a full-season league, Lowe emerged with a passing grade. His overall line doesn't stand out, but he was slightly above league average (102 wRC+) and was able to show off his plus speed (22-for-30 on stolen-base attempts) while transitioning from third base to the outfield. He had an impressive finish to the season, hitting .307/.373/.425 over his final 255 plate appearances, but a .415 BABIP was largely responsible for that. So far his plus raw power has not shown up consistently in games, but at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, he should tap into a bit more pop as he gets used to more advanced pitching and gets more professional instruction. While his 28.4 percent strikeout rate was not ideal, his all-fields approach was very impressive. He almost hit as many balls to the opposite field (36.1 percent) as he did to the pull side (37.1 percent). Lowe has yet to fully break out, so he should be easily attainable in dynasty leagues, which is an odd thing to say about a high-pedigree hitting prospect with 20-20 potential.

The Rays' top pick of 2016 started the season with the Gulf Coast League Rays before a promotion to Princeton of the rookie Appalachian League, where he acquitted himself reasonably well over 100 plate appearances. The speedster tallied a trio of triples overall on the season, and although he only hit five homers over 214 plate appearances overall, he is thought to have plenty to offer in the power department going forward. Lowe sports a 6-foot-4 frame that should accommodate plenty of added bulk, which will only help his overall long-term fantasy prospects. While he's quite a ways off from the big league level, he's laden with potential as a possible five-tool player.