The New Year tips off with several mid-major conferences battling it out. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on New Year's Day.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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CSUN at UC Davis 
These two teams have nearly identical offensive efficiency ratings, but a closer look reveals that one team is much better at shooting. CSUN falls short of the average D-1 marks in turnovers, free-throw attempts, two-point, and three-point field goal percentages, leaving it with few, if any, strengths. UC Davis, meanwhile, has made 58 percent of two-point attempts (40th) and attempted free throws at a frequency that ranks in the top third of the nation.
These are essential notes because CSUN's defense is the biggest weak link in this matchup, ranking 269th in adjusted efficiency. It also ranks outside the top 220 teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, free-throw attempts allowed, and two-point and three-point field goal percentages allowed.
Overall, UC Davis is better than CSUN at both ends of the court. I'm laying the points with the Aggies.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC Davis -3.5
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Bradley 
at Belmont 
This pick is all about offense. Between the two teams, Belmont is significantly more likely to score points on any given possession.
The Bruins boast the third-highest effective field goal percentage nationally, driven by high success rates on shot attempts all over the court. Belmont has made 60 percent of two-point attempts (25th) and almost 42 percent of three-point attempts, which is the fourth-highest mark among all D-1 teams. The latter is particularly impressive, given that the Bruins hoist three-pointers at a high clip, in the top quartile nationally.
Comparatively, Bradley's offense is lackluster. The Braves rank 163rd in adjusted efficiency and don't shoot the ball very well. They rank 175th in effective field goal percentage and have made under 51 percent of two-point attempts (211th). In general, shooting woes can be alleviated with trips to the charity stripe or second-chance opportunities, but Bradley doesn't stand out in these areas, either. It ranks 280th in offensive rebounding and 175th in free-throw attempt rate, making success unlikely if its initial shot attempt doesn't go through the hoop. Additionally, Belmont's defense is rather stiff near the rim, holding opponents to 44 percent on two-point attempts (17th) and ranking in the top 10 percent nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.
All things considered, my money's on the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Belmont -5.5
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Utah Valley 
at Tarleton State 
The key to this pick is that both offensive units face the same severe problem. Turnovers.
Utah Valley's offense has performed above average so far, ranking 127th in adjusted efficiency, though it's plagued by careless ball handling. The Wolverines rank near the bottom 10 percent of the nation in offensive turnover percentage, which is a hindrance in any matchup, but it could be particularly problematic in this one as Tarleton State boasts the third-highest defensive turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. The Texans also have the 13th-highest defensive steal percentage, indicating an aggressive approach that has paid off to some extent.
Tarleton State's offense hasn't been as successful, ranking 203rd in adjusted efficiency, and it's also had the same recurring issue as the visiting team. The Texans likewise rank in the bottom 10 percent of the nation in offensive turnover percentage, and they, too, face a team that can exacerbate the problem. The Wolverines have the 28th-highest defensive turnover percentage and seventh-highest steal percentage, which is the last thing you want to see if you're a Texan.
Given the significant defensive advantage each team will have entering this matchup, I expect a low-scoring game. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 150.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- UC Davis -3.5
- Belmont -5.5
- Utah Valley at Tarleton State - Under 150.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
