This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for the Wildcard Round matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans.
Monday night's game between the home-team Pittsburgh Steelers and visiting Houston Texans marks the finale of the Wildcard Round, with the winner of this game advancing to face the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
Both passing games appear vulnerable – Houston due to its questionable offensive line and Pittsburgh because of its limited pass-catching options – and both issues are exacerbated by strong pass rushes on both defenses. The Houston defense is on another level relative to Pittsburgh's, but then again Pittsburgh's offensive line is likely at least one magnitude better than Houston's.
The Steelers have the advantage in terms of venue and playoff experience, while the Texans are probably the team with more talent. The Texans are favored by 3.0 points with the over/under at 38.0.
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers ($9800 DK, $12000 FD) doesn't seem to have much going for him here, and his pass catchers are predictable enough that it's possible to poach his otherwise meager production via his pass catchers, but the group probably isn't likely to produce enough to warrant a stacking strategy. At the very least, if Rodgers has a big game here then it would likely portend bad things for Houston's chances of winning.
C.J. Stroud ($10200 DK, $12600 FD) projects better than Rodgers, though how much so is less clear. The Steelers defense will likely show up in Pittsburgh, especially the pass rush, and the pass rush has been a huge issue for Stroud and the Texans each of the last two years. The Texans would no doubt do whatever they think it takes to win, but an aggressive passing approach would be surprising unless the Pittsburgh pass rush is surprisingly invisible.
RUNNING BACK
Jaylen Warren ($9000 DK, $10600 FD) is the starter and probably the better real-life player, but Kenneth Gainwell ($8800 DK, $9200 FD) is an especially tough fade as the RB2 who functions more like the WR2 in the stunted Aaron Rodgers offense. Warren tends to get stuck with the dirty work, the most hard-fought yardage, while the open-space designs tend to fall to Gainwell. If you're betting on Pittsburgh to win then both running backs might have room on the same lineup card – Gainwell should be busy either way, but if Warren has a productive game as a runner then it would be a very bad sign for Houston.
Woody Marks ($8200 DK, $9400 FD) could be headed for a big workload, and particularly if you're projecting a Houston victory that might make him a tough fade. Although the efficiency has not been there for Marks the volume certainly has, including at the expense of Nick Chubb ($3000 DK, $5400 FD). Dare Ogunbowale is a candidate to play some snaps but he and Chubb generally appear to be punt plays behind Marks.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Nico Collins ($10600 DK, $13000 FD) is a tough fade even at a high price, because he generally produces like a top-five NFL wide receiver in terms of yard per route run. There is fluctuation – ups and downs for sure – but Collins' usage is a constant and it's only the returns that are up to question, and even then never for long. The Steelers corners will need the pass rush to bail them out because they unequivocally can't cover Collins.
If Collins lags then the next two suspects to draw viable targets might be WR2 Jayden Higgins ($7200 DK, $8400 FD) or tight end Dalton Schultz ($6400 DK, $5800 FD). As much as Higgins has seemingly established himself as the WR2 in Houston, the duo of Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson are also candidates to play 30-plus snaps, arguably making them better values than Higgins even though Higgins is more talented. Jaylin Noel ($2800 DK, $4400 FD) is also a capable player but seems unlikely to get many snaps behind Kirk and Hutchinson.
DK Metcalf ($9400 DK, $11600 FD) is not guaranteed much production in what has been a hit-or-miss season from game to game, but he's still a pressing consideration on this slate given how quickly he can do damage with a big play or two, even if there are upwards of 40 ugly plays from Metcalf otherwise in a given game. Similarly, while Metcalf can't be seen as reliable, he can be seen as a key to victory for Pittsburgh. In other words, if you're building a lineup that speculates a Pittsburgh victory here, then in that case the lineup perhaps should include Metcalf.
If not Metcalf then the best candidate to lead the Pittsburgh route runners might be tight end Pat Freiermuth ($5000 DK, $7200 FD), who appears to be Pittsburgh's best chain-moving route runner given the big-play specialization of Metcalf and Calvin Austin ($3400 DK, $8200 FD). Austin's speed could be a factor against Houston's somewhat speed-challenged secondary, so particularly if you're not picking Metcalf then the speedy but small Austin could make sense. Adam Thielen ($4400 DK, $4800 FD) is worth some thought given that he should play the second or third-most wideout snaps for Pittsburgh, but he's probably at his best in the slot at this point and the Steelers don't have many slot snaps up for grabs.
Jonnu Smith ($4000 DK, $2400 FD) is a capable receiver but in the Arthur Smith offense Jonnu gets used more like a fullback. He'll get snaps, but the from-scrimmage production has been missing all year. Marquez Valdes-Scantling might get some clearing routes but generally appears redundant with Metcalf back from suspension. Scotty Miller is similarly a desperate punt play as a candidate to play more than 10 but fewer than 20 snaps.
KICKER
Both of the kickers in this game are likely top-five kickers league-wide. Both would be central considerations on any single-game slate, but particularly in one where the touchdown projection is low there could be a void for the kickers in this game to seize for themselves.
Ka'imi Fairbairn ($4800 DK, $6600 FD) has arguably been the second-best kicker in the NFL behind Brandon Aubrey in recent years, and over the last two seasons Fairbairn has attempted an absurd 90 regular-season field goals, with a whopping 29 of them from beyond 50 yards. He converted 80 of thos field goals, demonstrating excellent range and accuracy both. Those five-point kicks can add up quickly on a single-game slate, especially if the yardage and points are otherwise limited. Fairbairn has 10 games with double-digit fantasy points in 15 appearances this year, including four games of 18.0 or more fantasy points.
Chris Boswell ($5200 DK, $6400 FD) can also arguably rank as the second-best kicker in the NFL at the moment. While it's not quite as much as Fairbairn's 90 attempts over the last two year, Boswell's 76 field goal attempts in that span is also a very high figure. Similarly to Fairbairn, Boswell has been notably excellent from long range, too, making 22 of 26 field goals from 50 or father in the sample. Boswell has eight games with double-digit fantasy points in 2025 out of 17 games.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
In a game with a low projected point total one or either defenses in this slate could prove cashing-viable.
The Steelers ($3600 DK, $6200 FD) need perhaps a lucky break or two due to their defense likely containing weak links in the run defense and secondary, but if it's luck they need then facing the weak Houston offensive line might be a good substitute. Despite their run defense and coverage limitations the Steelers have no issues in the pass rush, where they have plenty of tools to apply pressure on C.J. Stroud.
The Texans ($4600 DK, $6800 FD) defense likely needs less assistance. Aside from perhaps some depth limitations at cornerback, the Houston defense is solid or better across the board. Their run defense is one of the best, their pass rush is more or less tied with Denver's as the best in the league, and their starting personnel in the secondary is excellent. Aaron Rodgers has done a good job of limiting turnovers, but excessive caution can also make it difficult to score points.
