I use several RotoWire tools to analyze matchups, starting with Box Score Breakdown, which gives me a clear view of snaps, routes and other usage stats from the previous week. NFL defense vs. position stats identify exploitable matchups, while NFL advanced stats provide me with emerging trends. And I monitor the NFL injury report and NFL player news to see how roles and NFL depth charts may shift for the current week.
With only one game left in the season, this article obviously looks much different than it did throughout the year. We'll start with fantasy rankings by position, and then dig into the matchups to see where the advantage(s) lie.
QB Rankings
The betting odds give Darnold a better projection for passing yardage (by 230.5 vs. 220.5) and passing TDs (-122 vs. +122 on O1.5), but Maye still has a better overall projection for fantasy football, where rushing yards are typically worth 2.5x as much as passing yards.
Darnold rarely scrambles and doesn't even take QB sneaks for his team (that would be TE AJ Barner), whereas Maye sometimes leads the Patriots in rushing. Maye has 141 rushing yards and one TD in three playoff games, topping Darnold's cumulative production from the playoffs and regular season (104 yards, no TDs in 19 games).
RB Rankings
I think most people prefer Henderson to Holani, but the latter got far more playing time — 23 snaps, compared to just four for Henderson — in the conference championship round. The rankings here are straightforward otherwise.
WR Rankings
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Stefon Diggs
- Cooper Kupp
- Rashid Shaheed
- Kayshon Boutte
- Mack Hollins
- DeMario Douglas
- Jake Bobo
- Kyle Williams
- Dareke Young
Nos. 1 and 2 are clear, while 3-6 are arguably close enough to be arranged in any fashion between Kupp/Shaheed/Boutte/Hollins.
TE Rankings
Arroyo was medically cleared to return from his knee injury two weeks ago but then didn't actually participate in the NFC Championship game. He was Seattle's No. 2 TE before said injury, providing a receiving threat in 12 personnel from September through November. It's now unclear if Arroyo or Saubert will be the No. 2 TE in the Super Bowl. I'm guessing Arroyo will at least be active this time and have a small role, but who knows?
K Rankings
D/ST Rankings
- Seahawks
- Patriots
Seattle Seahawks at 
New England Patriots
Betting Odds
- Seahawks - 4.5
- O/U 45.5
- Seahawks (25.0) @ Patriots (20.5)
I've saw 5.5 as the line a couple of times last week, but it seems to be 4.5 pretty much everywhere now. It opened at 3.5 after the conference championship games, which didn't last long, with early money coming in on Seattle.
Injury Report
- FB Brady Russell (hand)
- FB Robbie Ouzts (neck)
The Seahawks don't have major health concerns. RB Zach Charbonnet (knee) and WR Tory Horton (shin) are out for the year, but their other IR guys are backups or special teamers. On the active roster, fullback is the only spot of concern, with Russell having suffered a hand injury during the NFCCG (which Ouzts missed with a neck injury). Both have been limited practice participants.
Seahawks released their Wednesday practice report for the Super Bowl. Everyone participated in some capacity pic.twitter.com/41qzmrrQEr
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) February 5, 2026
- LB Harold Landry (knee)
- LB Robert Spillane (ankle)
Both Landry and Spillane (both starters) appear in at least some danger of missing the game. Landry didn't play in the AFCCG, while Spillane left early and hasn't practiced since.During the regular season, Spillane led New England in tackles (97 in 13 games) while Landry led the team in sacks (8.5 in 15 games). An absence for Spillane would be good news for Kenneth Walker's fantasy outlook.
Prediction
- Seahawks 24 - Patriots 17
The Seahawks had a better point differential (+191) than New England (+170) during the regular season, despite facing a much tougher schedule. Seattle also got a tougher draw in the postseason, despite being the No. 1 seed, and arguably advanced through their conference in more convincing fashion than the Patriots did.
The Seahawks are Top 10 for a slew of efficiency stats on offense, defense and special teams. However, they aren't infallible, ranking 16th in third-down conversion rate (39.8%) and 21st in red-zone TD percentage (54.2). Few teams, if any, are better at producing big passing plays on early downs. The issue for Seattle has been picking up key conversions when the opponent knows a pass play is coming.
In the playoffs it's been much less of an issue, with Darnold rebounding strong in January after some shaky outings in November/December. The Patriots have a good defense, but not as good as Seattle's. The only real advantage for New England is Maye's ability to turn busted plays or scrambles into big gains, but it's still a problem if he has to do that over and over again.
Best Fantasy Matchup(s)
Both teams have played well on defense throughout the season, but New England hasn't been as dominant and now has two key injuries to deal with in the front seven (where Spillane's potential absence looms especially large for defending the run). Walker's fantasy value surged after Zach Charbonnet suffered a knee tear in the divisional round, with Walker then taking 23 touches for 111 yards and a TD against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. It was his third strong showing against a solid Rams defense this season, and his fourth time in the past five games with over 100 yards from scrimmage.
Scheduled for free agency in the offseason, Walker has a shot to add Super Bowl MVP to his resume before hitting the open market (or signing a new contract with Seattle). Just be aware that George Holani handled a lot of the passing-down work against Los Angeles, getting three carries and four targets on 35 percent of snaps. If Seattle falls behind, Walker could somewhat fall out of the picture. If things play out as expected, he should push for 20-plus touches.
Toughest Fantasy Matchup(s)
A standout D-line rotation and hard-hitting secondary — along with clever scheming by Mike Macdonald — have allowed Seattle to shut down the run even when using nickel or dime packages against two-wide formations. Including stats from the playoffs, Seattle ranks 1st in YPC allowed (3.6) to running backs and first in EPA/carry (-0.27). No team has allowed fewer rushing TDs (five) to the position, which means Stevenson could be in for a challenge fantasy-wise even if he's in a near-every-down role again.
Henderson, meanwhile, shapes up as somewhat of a longshot to have a big game, likely needing a long-distance score (or Stevenson injury/fumble) to get there. It is possible he plays more than in the last game, at Denver in the snow, but that shouldn't be treated as a guarantee. Stevenson has been better recently, and he clearly has the confidence of the coaching staff when it comes to everything from pass-blocking snaps to clock-killing carries.
