The playoffs are set to begin, and two of the most compelling weekends of the NFL season are ahead of us, we're back with another edition of the Underdog Pick'Em article. I'll break down some of my favorite picks of the weekend, relying heavily on the data found at the links below. For those who want to make picks of their own, those two resources are a great place to start.
Pace + Pass Rate over Expectation - https://www.rotowire.com/football/pass-ratings.php
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position - https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
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Higher
Josh Allen at JAX - higher than 230.5 passing yards
This is one of the more fiercely debated games of the weekend, but regardless of the outcome of the game this should be a big game for Allen. The Jaguars are the biggest pass-funnel defense in the league, facing a 5.1 percent pass rate over expectation – an entire percentage point higher than the next-closest team. It's always a safe assumption that the Bills' offense will run through Allen, and the matchup dictates that will be particularly true for wild-card weekend.
Travis Etienne vs. BUF – higher than 64.5 rushing yards
In contrast to the opposite side of this matchup, the Bills defense is one of the biggest run funnels in the league. Opponents have a -7.3 percent pass rate over expectation when facing the Bills this season, and Buffalo's defense has allowed 4.99 yards per carry by opposing running backs – the third-highest mark during the regular season and highest among all playoff teams. Bhayshul Tuten is back in the mix after a brief absence, but Jacksonville should rely heavily on its veteran back in this pivotal matchup.
C.J. Stroud at PIT – higher than 231.5 passing yards
The Texans have the reputation of being a team that relies on its defense and grinds opponents down on the ground offensively, but the latter point isn't particularly accurate. Houston had a neutral pass rate over expectation during the regular season, in line with Dallas' mark. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will almost certainly want to turn this game into a methodical, one-possession game, and Houston would play into that by going run heavy to start the game. Baltimore exposed the Steelers' secondary late in Week 18, and other quarterbacks such as Jared Goff and Caleb Williams had success in the final handful of games in the regular season.
It also makes sense to stack a pass catcher with Stroud, and Dalton Schultz (42.5 yards) is my favorite selection.
Christian Watson at CHI – higher than 55.5 receiving yards
The Bears' biggest weakness on the defensive side of the ball is allowing explosive plays. That should fit well for Watson, who has the very desirable combination of being a key part of the Packers' offense (23.1 percent target per route run/35.4 percent air yard share) while displaying elite explosive ability (10 of his 33 catches have gone for more than 20 yards). He's established himself as the top pass catcher for Green Bay and should play a big role in the team's efforts at an upset – at least by seed -- Saturday night.
Lower
Aaron Rodgers vs. HOU – lower than 204.5 passing yards
Rodgers and the Steelers' passing game have come alive during the team's last five games, and he's easily topped this projection four times in that span. Those four matchups included the Dolphins, Lions and Ravens twice, none of which ranked better than 16th in yards per attempt allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Texans have the seventh-best defense by that measure and have allowed only 277.2 total yards per game to opposing offenses. As described above, Pittsburgh will almost certainly try to turn this into a rock fight. Even if they fail and Houston pulls ahead, it isn't easy to imagine this Texans' defense relenting even if the Steelers are in comeback mode.
Kyle Williams vs. LAC – lower than 15.5 receiving yards
Williams is typically uninvolved in the Patriots' offense, earning more than one target only five times this season. He has an aDOT of 18.7 this season – among the highest marks in the league – meaning that his looks come on deep shots down the field. Those are already highly volatile opportunities, and now Williams will step into a matchup against one of the teams that is best at limiting explosive plays. Williams could surpass this projection with one catch, but he'll have limited opportunities to do so.
Brenton Strange vs. BUF – lower than 35.5 receiving yards
The strength of the Bills' defense is against the pass, and they are by far the best team at defending tight ends. That's primarily because opposing teams simply don't target the position against the Bills. Opposing tight ends saw only 76 targets against the Bills all season, 19 fewer than the next closest team. Strange plays an important role in the Jacksonville offense, but the trio of Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas gives the team elsewhere to look if Strange is taken out of the gameplan by Buffalo's scheme.
