Deebo Samuel

Samuel re-established himself as one of the best offensive weapons in the NFL in 2023, finding a middle ground between his monstrous breakout in 2021 (1,770 yards from scrimmage, 14 TDS) and a disappointing, injury-riddled 2022 (864 yards, five TDs). Rushing production (225 yards) and 12 total touchdowns allowed him to overcome a modest total of 89 targets, with Samuel being one of four 49ers in the range of 83-to-105 targets. He averaged 6.2 and 2.6 carries in his 14 full games, missing Weeks 7-8 with a shoulder injury and later playing only 20 snaps in a meaningless Week 18 contest. Samuel remained the most difficult wide receiver to tackle in the league, averaging 10.0 yards per target despite an aDOT of only 6.8 yards, thanks to his whopping 8.7 YAC average. Among wide receivers, only Rashee Rice gained a larger percentage of his yards after the catch -- a stat Samuel also ranked Top 5 in the previous two years. The downside, apart from facing considerable target competition from Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, is that Samuel's brute force means he takes far more hits per touch than a typical WR. He's missed 20.5 percent of regular-season games in his career, and that's a fair rate to expect going forward as he enters his age-28 season. Persistent trade rumors dating back to last year are the other major risk factor, though a move could actually help his fantasy value, depending on the team. The 49ers seem to be preparing for a future without either Samuel or Aiyuk, having spent a first-round pick on Ricky Pearsall and a fourth-rounder on Jacob Cowing.

Samuel is a unique player, to say the least, arguably in his own league among wide receivers when it comes to breaking and avoiding tackles. He actually has more career touchdowns on the ground (14) than through the air (12), though he's also shown a high ceiling as a pass catcher with his 1,405-yard campaign in 2021. Last year he displayed many of the same skills but to much lesser effect, held back by injuries, San Francisco's QB issues and perhaps some inevitable regression from his absurd 2021 numbers (11.6 YPT, eight rushing TDs on 49 carries, etc.). He's also missed 15 games in four seasons, mostly due to lower-body, soft-tissue injuries, further contributing to a profile that makes him one of the riskiest players at his position. The 49ers still have major questions at QB, and there's a ton of competition for both targets and carries in an offense with WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle and RBs Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. If talent and skills were the only factors, Samuel would be ranked higher.

The Niners fully unleashed Samuel last year, after injuries and a fluctuating role limited his impact his first two seasons. The 2019 second-round pick isn't a burner, but he's plenty fast (4.48 40) to get the job done while combining the size (6-0, 215) and ferocity of a running back with the route-running acumen of a veteran wideout. While it's the rushing work that makes him different, Samuel's biggest impact last year was actually chunk plays in the passing game, including five of 50-plus yards in the first two months. Coach Kyle Shanahan was rewarded for changing Samuel's role, again, with the wideout's aDOT rising from a freakishly low 2.2 in 2020 to a normal-ish 8.4 in 2021. He still got screens and shovel passes, but with more opportunities in the intermediate and deep areas as well. Then, in the second half of the year, Samuel played running back to help the team deal with injuries - a role he handled so well that it continued when Elijah Mitchell returned.

Foot and hamstring injuries cost Samuel the better part of 10 games last year, but on the rare occasion he did play, he looked like the rising star we saw during his rookie season. Samuel averaged 8.9 YPT on 44 targets and also carried the ball eight times for 26 yards, despite playing hurt. A stout 6-0, 215, with 4.48 speed, Samuel is a beast after the catch, breaking tackles and extending for extra yards. He also saw a heavy target share when he was finally healthy with 22 targets (and 17 catches) in Weeks 12-13. Samuel now returns to an unsettled quarterback situation. Oft-injured Jimmy Garoppolo enters training camp as the starter, though the Niners used the No. 3 overall pick (for which they paid dearly) to draft Trey Lance. Samuel will share looks with star tight end George Kittle and second-year man Brandon Aiyuk, but the 49ers’ lack of pass-catching depth could allow those three to combine for well over half the targets. Plus, Samuel had a unique role last year, mostly catching easy throws near the line of scrimmage (league-low 2.3 aDOT) and also taking eight carries. The QB-proof touches provide some protection if Garoppolo and Lance struggle.

Samuel started slowly as a rookie but took off in the season's second half, going 49-35-575-2 with 122 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Over a full season, that prorates to eight touchdowns and 1,394 yards from scrimmage. Samuel was also efficient. Despite eight drops, he managed 14.1 YPC and 9.9 YPT. He also saw a fair amount of red-zone use - 16 of his 81 targets were there, including seven from inside the 10. At 5-11, 214, Samuel has the physique of a running back and the ability to break tackles and get loose for big plays, given his 4.48 40 speed. In fact, coach Kyle Shanahan used Samuel in his running rotation, giving him 14 regular-season carries (three of which went for scores), plus six more totes in the postseason for 102 yards. Samuel should see more receiving work in Year 2 after the 49ers let Emmanuel Sanders walk via free agency, though the team used its first-round pick on the versatile and physical Brandon Aiyuk, who should serve as the deep threat. Jimmy Garoppolo showed he was no Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, but he's competent enough to support a productive No. 1 receiver alongside Aiyuk and superstar tight end George Kittle, and few receivers will match Samuel's bonus production as a rusher. Unfortunately, Samuel suffered a broken foot while he was training in mid-June, requiring surgery and leaving him uncertain for Week 1. The injury, a Jones fracture, is fairly common among wide receivers, and the incidence of aggravation is much higher for players that rush back into action.

The 36th overall pick in this year's draft, Samuel could start opposite Dante Pettis out of the gate in what should be a productive Kyle Shanahan offense with a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo. At 5-11, 214, Samuel is stout, strong and plenty athletic with a 4.48 40 and 39-inch vertical. He's a strong route runner and dangerous in the open field after the catch, but he never reached 900 receiving yards in four seasons at South Carolina, limited by a mixture of injuries and poor quarterback play. Samuel is also on the old side for a rookie after turning 23 in January, so his physical development has likely maxed out already. He'll have to displace deep threat Marquise Goodwin, who's probably better suited to a situational role, among others, but Samuel's odds are good given his physical tools and draft slot.