Joe Mixon

When word broke that the Bengals were done with Mixon it seemed his days of fantasy relevance might have been done too, but then the Texans swooped in to make him the starting running back for one of the best offenses in the conference. Mixon's high-usage role made him a valuable fantasy asset with the Bengals, and he might now have a similarly cushy gig as a potential three-down player in C.J. Stroud's offense. Although he averaged 4.1 YPC or less each of the past five seasons, Mixon scored 49 TDs in 69 games and averaged 3.0 receptions per contest. His career 81.6 percent catch rate and average of 6.2 yards per target represent excellent pass-catching efficiency by RB standards and make him a strong bet to see most of the Texans' RB targets. Houston still has Dameon Pierce, who showed so much promise as a rookie in 2022 but was then horrendous in 2023, leaving it uncertain whether Mixon has serious competition for carries. The three-year, $27 million extension Houston gave Mixon after trading a seventh-round pick for him suggests the 28-year-old should be a heavily used starter even if Pierce steals some carries each week.

Mixon had a bizarre offseason off the field, with two odd and concerning anecdotes raising the specter of some kind of legal or NFL penalty, though nothing has developed yet. Assuming Mixon is still on the Bengals and free of suspension, the details beyond that are encouraging for his fantasy value, which has consistently remained at the good-but-not-great level throughout his Cincinnati career. Mixon is not explosive and has seen Joe Burrow claim a huge share of the Bengals' touchdowns in recent years, but rushing volume is essentially assured with Samaje Perine gone to Denver in free agency and no veteran or Day 1/2 draft pick brought in this spring. Mixon caught 102 balls the last two years even with Perine taking a lot of the passing-down work, finishing 2022 with career highs for targets (75), catches (60) and receiving yards (441) in 14 games. Mixon has just one season on record with multiple 40-yard runs or better than 4.1 YPC (both 2018), but steady volume in a high-scoring offense almost always plays well in fantasy, and he could benefit from a blocking upgrade after the Bengals signed 345-pound OT Orlando Brown to a four-year, $64 million contract.

In terms of raw yardage and efficiency, 2021 was a fairly typical season for Mixon. His 1,519 scrimmage yards were a career high, but by less than 60 yards over his previous best, while 4.1 yards per carry matched his 2019 performance. What changed for Mixon, and indeed for the whole Bengals franchise, was the emergence of QB Joe Burrow. With the young quarterback leading the way and challenging defenses, Mixon got more high-value touches. He finished the year tied for eighth in red-zone carries with 42 and tied for fourth in red-zone rushing touchdowns with 12, and he faced eight-man fronts just 18.8 percent of the time, one of the lower rates in the league. Mixon still possesses a solid all-around skill set, but he's not quite one of the game's elite backs and still doesn't get consistent third-down work even though he's a capable pass catcher. Fortunately, the offense around him could take another step forward, as Cincinnati spent big money in the offseason to shore up its offensive line by adding Alex Cappa, La'el Collins and Ted Karras. While those signings were largely geared toward keeping Burrow upright, Mixon should also find more running room behind them. If he stays healthy and creeps back toward the 4.9 yards per carry he managed in 2018, another career year could be in the cards.

Mixon started 2020 on pace for another solid campaign. With Joe Burrow adding some life to the passing game, defenses couldn't stack the box, and the 24-year-old averaged better than 23 touches a game and appeared headed for his first season with 1,500 scrimmage yards. Then Mixon injured his foot and didn't play another game after Week 6, as the Bengals decided there was no need to rush him back once Burrow also went down. When he's 100 percent healthy, Mixon is an elusive and powerful runner with reliable hands, and while he doesn't have any elite traits that would give him a superstar ceiling, there's also no obvious weakness. The biggest issue so far in his career has been an offensive environment that prevents him from fully maximizing his potential. Cincinnati has added foundation pieces at the skill positions in recent drafts, but the team's offensive line was among the worst in the league last year, and the defense wasn't much better. Mixon has only Samaje Perine, Trayveon Williams and sixth-round rookie Chris Evans as competition in the backfield now that Gio Bernard is in Tampa, but the O-line doesn't inspire confidence even after adding 32-year-old Riley Reiff and second-round pick Jackson Carman.

It was clear early on that the Bengals offense was going to be bad in 2019, and it was Mixon who bore the brunt of those struggles as new coach Zac Taylor focused on his passing game. The third-year back didn't record his first 100-yard rushing game until Week 10 and didn't score his first rushing TD until Week 11. It's arguably a testament to Mixon's talent that his season totals look as palatable as they do given his washout first half. A big, powerful runner with surprising nimbleness, the 6-1, 220-pound Mixon is a prototypical three-down back who adds some value in passing situations while also wearing down defenses with his physicality. Neither Mixon nor Giovani Bernard saw a big increase in receiving usage last year, which was somewhat surprising given Taylor's background working under Sean McVay for the Rams. Cincinnati finished 30th in points and 26th in yards, despite being sixth in pace and ninth in total plays run. Better days should be ahead, though. With No. 1 pick Joe Burrow stepping in at quarterback, A.J. Green returning from an ankle injury and the potential for better offensive line play with last year's first-round pick Jonah Williams healthy, the offense should be more efficient this season, and that improvement is likely to extend to Mixon. There's been some chatter about a potential contract holdout, but Mixon hadn't made an announcement at press time.

Can a player still be a breakout candidate after successfully breaking out the season before? We may be about to find out. Mixon emerged as a legitimate lead back in 2018, improving both as a runner and a receiver while handling a large workload for a Bengals offense that otherwise struggled. The second-year RB also took his game to another level when he became the focal point of the attack after Andy Dalton broke his thumb, piling up 495 rushing yards in the final five games of 2018. Mixon offers a compelling combination of size, power and elusiveness, and he did his damage working behind a bad offensive line that should be improved with the addition of No. 11 overall pick Jonah Williams. With last year's performance as a baseline, it's now time to see whether Mixon's ceiling is even higher. New coach Zac Taylor spent the last two years on Sean McVay's staff in Los Angeles, and if Taylor's scheme works even close to as well in Cincinnati, Mixon could see the same kind of opportunities Todd Gurley enjoys. Giovani Bernard remains on hand to handle some of the passing-down workload, but even if Mixon doesn't see 300 touches, he could still take another big step forward with the help of a better environment around him.

Coming off a lackluster rookie campaign, Mixon heads into 2018 atop the Bengals' depth chart with a chance to blossom in his second season. Despite having the frame and physicality of a prototypical lead back, he displayed little of the explosiveness or elusiveness he flashed in college at Oklahoma, managing only two rushes of 20 or more yards last season. He did at least show that he can handle three-down responsibilities, though with Giovani Bernard still in town Mixon likely won't be asked to do too much in passing situations. Jeremy Hill's departure opens snaps and touches on early downs, and fourth-round pick Mark Walton doesn't figure to pose an immediate threat to Mixon's playing time. Perhaps most important, the Bengals made a serious effort to beef up their woeful offensive line, trading for oft-injured Bills left tackle Cordy Glenn and drafting Ohio State center Billy Price with the 21st overall selection. If Glenn stays healthy, Mixon should see a lot more open space in front of him and a lot less traffic in the backfield, giving him a much better chance of fulfilling his immense potential.

Arguably no running back taken in the 2017 draft has more to prove than Mixon. On talent alone he should have been a first-round selection, as he showed a complete package of skills at Oklahoma. The 6-1, 226-pound back has elite burst, exceptional elusiveness and the strength and bulk to thwart tacklers with stiff arms or simply lower his shoulder and grind out extra yards. He also flashed soft hands and plus route-running ability, along with a willingness to pass protect, making him a true three-down option. Overshadowing his on-field skills is a volatile off-field reputation, and a 2014 incident in which he punched a female student led to a suspension for that entire season. The Bengals drafted Mixon in the second round and have a history of taking on talented players with similar risk profiles, but as Vontaze Burfict has shown, they aren't always able to keep such players on the straight and narrow. With Jeremy Hill struggling the past two years and Giovani Bernard recovering from a torn ACL, the door is wide open for Mixon to take on a large workload for Cincinnati right away, but he'll be on a very short leash if further off-field troubles surface.