Weekly PGA Preview: U.S. Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

U.S. Open

Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont, PA

The PGA Tour heads to Pennsylvania for another edition of the U.S. Open.

It's U.S. Open week, so a quick shout out to Ryan Fox on his win this past week, but we must look forward. Definitely a huge win for Fox and good to see Sam Burns back to his old form, but it's time to get to the matter at hand and that's the season's third major. Let's take a look at some major storylines this week…

We're starting with the course this week, which from all accounts looks to be a bear. Now before we get too out of hand, we should realize that that hype leading up to the U.S. Open is usually overblown, however, that might not be the case this year. We all know that Oakmont is a beast, so anything the USGA does to make things more difficult is going to turn this course into a monster. I've heard about extra thick rough and super-fast greens, so if that's the case, then yeah, there could be a lot of carnage this week.

Onto the players, and we of course have to start with Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler has righted the ship after a rough start (relatively) to his 2025 season, and now he's looking like a threat to win multiple majors this season. He's gone from one of a handful of favorites at the first two majors, to the clear favorite at the third major. If he wins this week, he could complete the career grand slam next month at the Open Championship.

Rory McIlroy enters this week off a bad stretch of golf that saw him miss the cut by a country mile at the RBC Canadian Open this past week. Can he turn it around in just a matter of days?

Another thing I'll be watching for this week is the reemergence of Jon Rahm. Heading into the PGA Championship, Bryson DeChambeau was seemingly the only LIV golfer that posed a threat, but after a good showing at the season's second major, Rahm now looks like he might be a factor once again.

There are more storylines to get into, but we'll take a look at those below in the player write-ups. The last thing I want to mention is the weather. Wind doesn't look to be a factor this week, but rain and thunderstorms could wreak havoc if everything goes poorly. Even if they manage to dodge the storms during the week, the course is going to be wet, which is going to make the course longer and the rough thicker. On the bright side for the players, the greens should be held in check somewhat.

As if often the case, accuracy will be a huge factor, both from the tee and into the green, but if the reports about the rough are correct, accuracy off the tee could be paramount this week. 

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LAST YEAR

Bryson DeChambeau shot a final round 71 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Rory McIlroy.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9:00 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+280) 

What's not to like about Scheffler this week? His game is on point right now and he's deservedly the heavy favorite this week. Unlike the other favorites this week, there are no holes in his game right now. He's long and he's accurate, he's won multiple majors, and he's won multiple times this year. Most importantly, the intimidation factor is back. The other golfers in the field know they're in trouble if Scheffler gets out in front, so if that happens this week, we might be able to call this race early.

Bryson DeChambeau (15-2)

DeChambeau is the defending champion this week, which will no doubt add some pressure, but he's been able to handle that over the past couple years, so I have no doubt that he'll play this week just as he's played the majors over the past couple years. He's become the second most reliable golfer at the majors and there's no reason to think that'll change this week. My only worry is the rough and if it's really as penal as everyone says, then DeChambeau might not be able to get away with the "bomb and gouge" strategy that's worked for him at previous Opens.  

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

I'm not saying that McIlroy has no shot this week, but the fact that he's tied for the third-best odds entering the week is absolutely insane. Yes, when he's on, he's one of the two best players in the world, but he's been far from "on" over the past month. He was so far off this past week that it makes me wonder if he can possibly turn it around in a few days. I wouldn't touch McIlroy at this number. 

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THE NEXT TIER

Xander Schauffele (22-1)

For years everyone expected Schauffele to break through at the majors, so when he won two majors in one season and neither came at the U.S. Open, it was a bit of a surprise. The reason everyone thought he's win at the U.S. Open was his results, which included seven top-10s in eight starts. In fact, he's never finished worse than T14 in his eight starts. That's an incredible stat. With all the things that can wrong at a U.S. Open, the fact that he's never had a bad week in eight starts is amazing. The only concern this week is that he's not shown his 2024 form yet this season.

Ludvig Aberg (22-1)

Aberg has played some bad golf over the past couple months, but it looks like he's getting back on track. Aberg posted a strong final round at the Memorial two weeks ago and he parlayed that into four solid rounds at the RBC this past week. Whatever was bothering him over the past couple months seems to be a thing of the past now and he should be considered a threat to win this week. Aberg finished T12 in his only previous U.S. Open start this past year.

Tommy Fleetwood (40-1)          

If Fleetwood doesn't win this week, or if he doesn't at least contend on the weekend, then I don't think I can continue to back him. He's played well in spots at the majors over the years, but he just can't get over the hump. The reason I like him at Oakmont is his ability to keep the ball in the short grass and his play on Open setups over the years. Fleetwood has three top-5s at the U.S. Open in his past eight tries.

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LONG SHOTS

Viktor Hovland (55-1)   

Yet another in a long list of golfers that hasn't been able to show much consistency this season. To his credit, Hovland was able to pull off a win earlier this season, even though he hasn't had his best game for much of the year. The reason he's in play at Oakmont is his ability to get to the green. He's always had trouble around the greens, but his play off the tee and into the green is elite. If he can hit his fare share of greens, then he's got a shot.  

Sam Burns (75-1)          

Burns doesn't have a strong U.S. Open track record, but he did post a top-10 at last year's open. The reason he's in play is his current form, which saw him nearly win last week in Canada. If he can carry some of that form over, he has a chance at Oakmont

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Bryson DeChambeau – I'm going off the assumption that most OAD players have used Scheffler already, which would make DeChambeau the best option this week. I am a little nervous about the potential for a lot of missed fairways, but he proved this past year that he can get around a U.S. Open track, whether or not he's hitting a lot of fairways.         

Moderately-Chosen Pick:  Tommy Fleetwood – You'd always like to take someone who can win and while Fleetwood hasn't proved he can win in the states, let alone a major, he often is competitive and that's what you're looking for in a OAD pick. If he plays his game, he should be in the mix on Sunday, but a win might not be in the cards.      

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Viktor Hovland – Hovland's inconsistency this season will take him off a lot of OAD player's lists, but he has the upside to win a major and Oakmont might be the perfect fit. If he's doing what he does best, hitting fairways and greens, he's going to have a leg up on most of the field this week, giving him a chance to win and certainly giving him a chance to finish in the top-10 or top-5.            

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy – Everyone thought that the Masters win would open up this whole new world for McIlroy, where he never had any pressure to win and he could play freely, but it seems to have done the opposite. Maybe his current funk has nothing to do with his win and it's just Rory letting the illegal driver situation snowball into something more than it should, but he's simply not in the right frame of mind right now to win a major. Perhaps he gets his driver going early this week and he's able to put all that garbage behind him, but I don't think that's how it will play out.          

My Pick: Xander Schauffele – Tough call this week because I wanted to use a LIV guy if the shoe fit, but my best option was Jon Rahm and I think he's going to be quite popular this week, so I'll pass on him. Schauffele will probably be popular as well, but I think he'll be a bit overlooked because he hasn't done much this season. He certainly carries more risk than most players in this range, but I love the fact that he gets around U.S. Open tracks with such ease.

Previous Results

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FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,800)
Middle Range:  Viktor Hovland ($10,600)
Lower Range: Bud Cauley ($7,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

My Pick: Scottie Scheffler: Probably the toughest cut to predict all season, so might as well go with the most reliable player on the PGA Tour. Another strategy would be to take DeChambeau in this spot, but again, I have a slight concern about the rough situation this week, so I'll stick with Scheffler who is immune to anything a golf course can throw at him.