Top Picks and Predictions for UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3
UFC 318 is packed to the gills with 14 fights from which we can potentially profit. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a BMF champion looking to retire a fellow legend, and a submission fighter who will hit the gas as a sizeable underdog. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Vinicius Oliveira ($8.500)
Kyler Phillips struggles when he can't get his wrestling going, and Oliveira is strong enough to stuff takedowns and pursue his own grappling in return. The Brazilian has survived in the UFC by withstanding offense and pouring on the pressure as his opponents wilt. Given that Phillips is prone to cede ground in his fights before getting tired, it's difficult to see how he gains momentum here.
Jimmy Crute ($9,000)
Crute may essentially be a one-round fighter at this point in his career, as we have seen him get tired and have to rely on grit to see the final bell. While Marcin Prachnio has extended bouts against Vitor Petrino and Modestas Bukauskas, he was ultimately submitted by both of those individuals after allowing multiple takedowns. While the Polish fighter could have success if this fight sees the later rounds, neither of the men discussed above has the jujitsu chops of Crute, who should make quick work of his opponent once he goes to the ground.
Brendan Allen ($8,800)
Allen's aggressive, grapple-heavy style makes him a nice target under $9,000, as he has scored over 110 points in two of his last three wins. He also uses kicks to close the distance, in stark contrast to the boxing-centric attack of Marvin Vettori. The Italian fighter hits hard, but I expect that "All in" will be able to eat a few big shots to get into the clinch.
Nicolle Caliari ($7,100)
I have been a fan of Carli Judice's volume and power since her win on The Contender Series, but I see a path for Caliari, who is tough, powerful, and will never stop trying to get the fight to the ground. As per usual, the 28-year-old will face significant disadvantages in height and reach, but Judice has just six professional MMA fights on her ledger, so it is worth seeing how she handles an opponent who will constantly be in her face.
Francisco Prado ($8,300)
Prado could pay off big at this price, as he will pour immense pressure on his opponents, throw power shots, and wrestle when the situation calls for it. Nikolay Veretennikov looks like a decent kickboxer, but his reluctance to engage has hurt him in fights before, and Prado should be able to start rolling downhill once he backs the Kazakh fighter to the cage.
Brunno Ferreira ($9,700)
I referred to Jackson McVey as a size bully on the regional scene prior to his canceled fight with Christopher Ewert last month. While that size will give him height and reach advantages over "The Hulk," the Brazilian will have a massive edge in power and athleticism, which he should be able to use to take this fight wherever he pleases. I don't think McVey's prowess on the ground will play here, as Ferreira has shown the ability to scramble and stay heavy in top position.
Islam Dulatov (9,600)
Adam Fugitt fights so deliberately that I wouldn't be surprised if Dulatov forces engagement with his grappling here, as he has notched four of his 11 victories by submission. "The Ripper" has a knack for making it rough for opponents in the clinch, while Fugitt has logged just a 50 percent takedown defense rate in four UFC fights.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Michael Johnson OVER 45.5 Significant Strikes, Dan Ige OVER 52.5 Significant Strikes, Robert Valentin UNDER 18.5 Significant Strikes, and Roman Kopylov UNDER 74.5 Significant Strikes
This total seems low for Johnson, who has retained his hand speed late in his career. While Daniel Zellhuber will have advantages in both height and reach, "The Menace" is no stranger to throwing leg kicks and has only been knocked out three times in 42 professional fights. It should also be noted that Zellhuber has absorbed over six strikes per minute in his UFC career, meaning that we shouldn't need this fight to hit the scorecards if Johnson can get going early.
As much as I am rooting for Patricio Freire, his style of standing on a napkin and trying to land big shots seems like a bad way to fight Ige, who will use his speed and footwork to cut angles and find his strikes. For all the talk of a diminished chin, "Pitbull" has only lost via KO/TKO twice in a career spanning 44 fights.
Valentin generally looks for tie-ups to work submissions in fights, and this instinct should be in overdrive against Ateba Gautier, who burst onto the scene with a first-round knockout of Jose Medina in March. Every second Valentin stays in space is one where he is vulnerable to eating a fight-ending shot, so expect him to do as little striking as possible until this one ends.
While I do expect Kopylov to strike with Paulo Costa, we've seen both men hesitant to engage, which has led to low totals. Costa has shown that he is happy to stay on the back foot, which could result in a slow back-and-forth kind of fight that suppresses strike totals.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Max Holloway Wins via KO/TKO (+170)
Holloway may have been knocked out in his last fight against Ilia Topuria, but I would still argue he has improved since the last time he and Dustin Poirier fought in 2019. This starts with how comfortable he looked at lightweight against Justin Gaethje, where not only did he wear shots better, but he was also landing harder, leading to a knockout of "The Highlight" as time ticked away in Round 5. His defense has also looked better, as he will frequently find an angle and pivot back to space when he gets closed down against the fence. Poirier has always been a good boxer, but his tendency to reset after exchanges has gotten worse with time, which will allow Holloway to get ahead with combinations. "The Diamond" has also never been able to keep his back off the side of the Octagon. This is not a good place to be against any version of Holloway, and could be trouble in light of the power of "Blessed" at this weight class.
Lukasz Brzeski Wins via KO/TKO (+360)
Neither Brzeski nor Ryan Spann has inspired confidence with their performances lately, but I've soured on the Idea that Spann actually likes fighting, as it doesn't take long for him to abandon form in favor of wild shots and forced takedown attempts. By contrast, Brzeski will never stop trying to win, as he will stay in his opponent's face and immediately scramble back to his feet when taken down. Spann's power and athleticism can make him look like a world-beater in any given fight, but he gets so flustered in the cage that it seems his only path to victory is one big land more often than not.
Kevin Holland Wins via KO/TKO (+195)
Holland has looked reinvigorated during his latest stint at welterweight. So much so that I'm a bit surprised to see the juice on this line, as Holland will be faster, hit harder, and will carry a seven-inch reach advantage against Daniel Rodriguez. "D-Rod" is a boxer with decent footwork, but his lack of speed will likely hurt him here, as he should be a sitting duck for those strikes at the end of Holland's range.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 318 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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