ABC Supply 500
Location: Long Pond, Pa.
Course: Pocono Raceway
Format: 2.5-mile oval
Laps: 200
Race Preview
Simon Pagenaud took another victory at Mid-Ohio in the last race to continue Penske Racing's dominance in 2016. He and teammate Will Power have won three of the last four races and four of the last six. Penske drivers have won eight of the season's 12 races completed so far. However, if there is a type of circuit the juggernaut can be beaten, it is an oval like Pocono. The team has been beaten to the checkered flag on every oval so far this season, and that gives the rest of the field some optimism this week. Juan Pablo Montoya won for the team at this track in 2014 with the fastest race run at the track since its return to the schedule in 2013. He also started from pole that afternoon. Ryan Hunter-Reay, who has struggled with Andretti Autosport for much of this season, is the defending winner.
Key Stats at Pocono (since 2013)
• Number of previous races: 3
• Winners from pole: 1
• Winners from top-5 starters: 1
• Winners from top-10 starters: 2
• Lowest starting position to win: 17
• Fastest race: 202.402 mph
Previous Winners at Pocono (since 2013)
2015 - Ryan Hunter-Reay
2014 - Juan Pablo Montoya
2013 - Scott Dixon
Pocono Raceway is a unique circuit with three distinctly different turns. The differing turns require a slight compromise in setup for the drivers to achieve the fastest possible lap time, and the long straights make for excellent drafting opportunities to encourage passing. Drivers usually see the track as a tricky circuit to get right, and setups will be a careful balance between downforce and power. Fifteen drivers took part in a test at the circuit earlier this summer, and each of those drivers will take something they learned to help improve their performance in this week's race. Just four races remain in the season, including Pocono, so making an impact quickly is imperative.
RACE DAY SCORE VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Simon Pagenaud - $11,800
Will Power - $11,800
Helio Castroneves - $11,400
Tier 2 Values
Josef Newgarden - $10,900
Scott Dixon - $10,900
Ryan Hunter-Reay - $10,500
Graham Rahal - $10,400
Tier 3 Values
Mikhail Aleshin - $9,700
James Hinchcliffe - $9,500
Carlos Munoz - $9,300
Long-Shot Values
Conor Daly - $8,900
Ed Carpenter - $7,200
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Will Power - $11,800
Josef Newgarden - $10,900
Juan Pablo Montoya - $10,400
Carlos Munoz - $9,300
Ed Carpenter - $7,200
Pocono is a unique racetrack and Power has it figured out. His lowest finish in three starts was 10th, and he has led a lap in every event. He offers the lower-risk lineup plenty of consistency this week. Newgarden has been on a tear since suffering an injury in Texas. Like Power, he has three top-10 finishes from three Pocono starts and finished in the runner-up position last year. In 2014 Juan Pablo Montoya won this race from pole and led 45 laps. He didn't lead any laps last year, but finished third despite starting 19th. Carlos Munoz has proven himself to be one of the brightest oval racers in the series, and back-to-back top-five finishes in his two career starts at Pocono lend credence to that belief. Finally, Ed Carpenter wasn't able to show his strength in this race last year. He dropped out due to an engine issue, but is entirely capable of scoring a top-10 finish like he did here in 2013.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Scott Dixon - $10,900
Tony Kanaan - $10,900
Mikhail Aleshin - $9,700
James Hinchcliffe - $9,500
Sebastien Bourdais - $9,000
Scott Dixon heads the higher-risk lineup at Pocono. He won at Phoenix earlier this season, but has been more inconsistent recently. However, he hasn't finished worse than ninth at Pocono and won the 2013 edition of this event. Tony Kanaan has struggled to find a good finish at Pocono with zero top-10s in three tries; however, he led 114 laps in those races. He is consistently quick at this track, and just needs to convert that speed into a win this weekend. With two top-10 finishes in the last three races, including fifth in Iowa, Aleshin should be firmly on the fantasy radar. He finished seventh in his only Pocono start in 2014. James Hinchcliffe extended his streak of top-10 finishes to three with a fifth-place finish at Mid-Ohio and could be poised to score his first Pocono top-10 on the back of that momentum. Lastly, Sebastien Bourdais is beginning to find more oval success. He finished eighth in Iowa and there is no reason he can't also grab his first Pocono top-10 this week.
