Patriots vs Broncos Predictions & Odds for AFC Championship Game (2026)

The New England Patriots have reached the AFC Championship, but even that hasn't silenced the easy-schedule criticism they've heard all year. That's largely because Denver will be forced to start Jarrett Stidham in place of injured QB Bo Nix.

With this much uncertainty surrounding Denver's QB situation, it's more important than ever to read up on the RotoWire staff's expert Patriots vs Broncos predictions, including everything you need to know about the odds, spread, over/under, and more. When placing your bets, just make sure to use an offer like the bet365 bonus code.

Patriots vs Broncos Odds: AFC Championship Game

All odds in the table below are sourced from BetMGM. Use a BetMGM Bonus Code to juice up your bets. Note that odds may have moved after this article was published. 

Patriots vs Broncos Prediction

I'll be honest: I have no idea how Jarrett Stidham will perform on Sunday. To be fair, nobody outside of the Broncos' building does. And even then I'm not so sure. 

Stidham hasn't attempted a regular-season pass since 2023. He made two starts at the end of that year after Sean Payton benched Russell Wilson. Oddly enough, Stidham found himself in essentially the same exact situation the year prior. He started two games at the end of the 2022 campaign, taking over for Derek Carr, who was unceremoniously benched by current Patriots' OC, Josh McDaniels. 

Across those four games, he looked pretty good! He completed 85-of-136 passes, averaging 270.0 passing yards per game with six TDs. But he was sloppy. He took 13 sacks, threw four INTs and fumbled the ball four times during that four-game stretch. 

But let's be honest: Overanalyzing four late-season starts from years ago, played in entirely different situations, isn't productive.

Instead, I'll focus on the Patriots' red-hot defense. It's hard to imagine any backup QB doing well against this group right now. We don't have much data on Stidham specifically, but most backups will probably need to be lifted up by a strong run game. I don't think anyone can run on the Patriots right now. They look even better than they did at the start of the year, when they were the league's fourth-best run defense in EPA per play from Week 1-10. 

That unit fell off a cliff when Milton Williams went down, checking in as the fourth-worst unit in that same metric from Week 11-17. But they've been a wall ever since his return. No RB has surpassed even 53 rushing yards in the 14 games Williams has appeared in, including the playoffs.

If the Broncos can't run the ball, it's hard to see Stidham doing enough to carry this team to a win. 

The Broncos' defense has quietly fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season. Denver's defense ranked No. 4 in EPA per play and No. 3 against the pass over the first 11 games. The Broncos fell to No. 18 and No. 20, respectively, in those same metrics from Week 11-17. Their win last week didn't quiet my concerns. Buffalo was consistently moving the rock, but their five turnovers flipped the game. 

Considering Denver finished the regular season tied for the fourth-fewest takeaways, I don't think that's happening again. Drake Maye has been a little loose with the football in the playoffs, but I think he'll do enough to comfortably outscore Jarrett Stidham. 

• ⭐️ Score Prediction: New England Patriots Win, 27-13

Patriots vs Broncos Expert Predictions 

Here's a look at the RotoWire Staff's Patriots vs Broncos moneyline predictions: 

• Brandon Justice: Patriots
• Tyler Huntington: Patriots
• Blake Weishaar: Patriots
• Max Staley: Patriots

All four RotoWire experts are backing the Patriots' moneyline on Sunday. The season-ending injury to Bo Nix likely has a lot to do with that. 

RotoWire Staff Moneyline Prediction Record 

Below, I've detailed the RotoWire staff's moneyline prediction record in the 2025-26 regular season and the NFL Playoffs. 

2025-26 Regular Season: 

• Brandon Justice: 168-104
• Blake Weishaar: 167-105
• Tyler Huntington: 156-116
• Max Staley: 151-121

2025-26 NFL Playoffs: 

• Blake Weishaar: 8-2
• Max Staley: 8-2
• Brandon Justice: 7-3
• Tyler Huntington: 7-3

Where to Bet on NFL Playoffs Odds 

Below, I've listed the major sportsbooks that offer betting markets on this game. I've also included their welcome offers, so you can kickstart your account with some bonus bets.