This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Thursday April 24th
Previous article 1-4-1 (-3.08 units)
Season 23-32-1 (-12.39 units)
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Thursday's MLB Slate Observations
Road Favorites - Rangers -146 at Athletics
Home Favorites (Largest) - Royals -235 vs Rockies, Twins -225 vs White Sox, Red Sox -162 vs Mariners
Totals - Nationals/Orioles 9.0, Brewers/Giants 7.5, Rays/Dbacks 7.5
Weather
Wind is blowing out 12-15 mph in Sacramento and San Francisco
45 degrees in Minnesota, 50 degrees in San Francisco, 84 in Arizona (roof open),
MLB Line Movement
Red Sox from -152 to -180
Twins from -220 to -235
Nationals from +102 to -112
Royals from -290 to -240 (Cole Ragans was the scheduled starter, now it is Michael Lorenzen)
White Sox/Twins from 8.5 to 8.0, Rockies/Royals from 8.5 to 8.0, Orioles/Nationals from 8.5 to 9.0
Bullpen Rankings (updated 4/24/25)
Top 5 (Mets, Astros, Padres, Blue Jays, Dbacks). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 5 (Reds, Angels, Marlins, Rockies, Nationals). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Baltimore Orioles 
at Washington Nationals 
Picks
When this line first came out, the Orioles were actually favored, but I knew it would flip over to the Nationals with MacKenzie Gore starting. It has gone from the Orioles opening as a slight road favorite to the Nationals being a solid home favorite. This line is all about the perception of both teams coming into the season. The Orioles are just 9-14, while the Nats are just two games under .500 at 11-13.
The Orioles are dead last wRC+ against left-handed pitching, while their own starting pitching has gotten torched. Cade Povich has a 0-2 record with a 6.38 ERA.
There is always risk taking the Nationals in a full game bet, because of their bad their bullpen. But the difference between the full game ML (-115) and the F5 ML (-130) was enough to just look at laying -0.5 runs F5. If the game is a tie, then it will lose. It would not surprise me if the Nationals blew the Orioles out today.
MLB Best Bet: Nationals -0.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +105); Nationals ML for 0.5 unit (BetRivers -114)
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Los Angeles Angels 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Picks
The Angels offense started off red hot with a lot of power, but it has since faded and they are 8-1 to the UNDER on their team total in their last 9 games. The first 12 games of the season the Angels hit .241 with 24 homers, averaging 5.4 runs per game. The last 9 games saw them slump to.201, with 9 homers and just 2.6 runs per game. Pittsburgh's ofense is not much better as they have averaged just 3.6 runs per game over their last 14.
Neither starting pitcher (Carmen Mlodzinski and Tyler Anderson) is strong, but they are serviceable enough to hold down both offenses.
The Pirates and Angels bullpens are bad, but the F5 team total is just 2.5 runs so I will reluctantly roll the dice and instead play this one on the full game total of 9 runs.
MLB Best Bet: Angels/Pirates UNDER 9 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
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Colorado Rockies 
at Kansas City Royals 
Picks
The Rockies are 28th in runs scored and the Royals are 30th, but the Rockies are even worse on the road at just 2.00 runs per game and a 1-12 record. Even with the likes of Chase Dollander (rookie, but huge pedigree) and Michael Lorenzen on the mound along with two of the worst bullpens, I still can not get to 9 runs in this game. This is also going to be the second game of the doubleheader so we could see some starters getting rest which makes the lineups even weaker.
The Royals have scored more than 4 runs just twice all season and those games were back on March 31 and April 4th. Since April 5th, they have averaged 2.4 runs per game.
Both offenses are so putrid right now, that seeing a 9 total just feels like a monumental task to approach unless something crazy happens late with the bullpens.
MLB Best Bet: Rockies/Royals UNDER 9 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -122)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Nationals -0.5 runs F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Nationals ML for 0.5 unit (BetRivers -114)
- Angels/Pirates UNDER 9 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Rockies/Royals UNDER 9 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -122)
