Collette Calls: Hitting Bold Prediction Reviews

Each year, I like to look back at the bold predictions I made in January and February to look for lessons learned as well as successes. I do not run from my mistakes, but I do want to learn from them in my continual efforts to help you all leverage these predictions in your own fantasy pursuits. My annual goal is to get at least a third of these correct without lowering the bar for what determines the boldness of the prediction. There are indeed some five-star reviews this season, but there were also plenty of reviews where you would be well within your rights to ask to speak to my manager.

All Earned Auction Value (EAV) references and overall rankings are based off standard 15-team mixed leagues. 

Five-Star Predictions

Kyle Schwarber puts up a 50 burger this season (ADP 67)

Schwarber became just the 11th player in baseball history to hit 50-plus homers at age 32 or older. He was marvelous this season, finishing with a EAV of $40 and as the fifth most valuble fantasy player. Not bad for someone who was falling into the fifth round simply because he was UT-only. His 2026 acquisition cost, whether by his new team or fantasy team, is going to be as big as some of his Schwarbombs were this season. 

Shea Langeliers is a top-three catcher (ADP 129)

To quote Charlotte 'Charlie' Blackwood from the original Top Gun, "My review of your performance was spot on!" Langeliers indeed finished the season as the third most valuable catcher, earning $18 and trailing only Cal Raleigh ($42) and Hunter Goodman ($20). Goodman is the bigger story here because he was going in the 20th round of drafts or later, and I was even fortunate enough to have both Langeliers and Goodman in an OBP league where I let the power reward outweigh the OBP risks. Langeliers hit a career-best 31 homers, thanks in part to the cozy conditions in Sacramento, but more importantly, set new career-best marks for batting average and on-base percentage. He finished the season 50 spots better than his ADP during draft season.

Dillon Dingler is a top-30 catcher (ADP 654)

QUICK LINKS

Sync A League

Your path to victory starts here

DFS Optimizer

Build hundreds of lineups in seconds

MLB Lineups

See the latest starting lineups

Dingler finished the season as the 14th-best fantasy catcher with a EAV of $4 and finishing 244th overall. Dingler was a four-category catcher whose biggest pnealty was he hit lower in the lineup which limited his RBIs and runs, but he finished ahead of the likes of J.T. Realmuto in the final standings. Dingler was the 54th catcher by ADP when the prediction was made and 275 spots outside the top 30, but he showed why I spent $3 on him in the XFL dynasty league in our early November draft and tried to encourage others to get on board with his upside. 

Jonathan Aranda is a top-250 player (ADP 344)

Aranda finished the season with a EAV of $8 and was 189th overall, only because he missed two months of the season with a broken right wrist. He reminded us of what could have been when he returned for the final series of ths season and homered in his first two games back. Aranda would have likely won the batting title had he not missed so much time, as he ended the year hitting .316 with a .393 OBP. We can expect some of that production to decline with the return indoors next season, but this was a tremendous return on investment for those who were able to roster Aranda in or near the end game. 

Lenyn Sosa is a top-30 second baseman (ADP 472)

Sosa finished the season with a EAV of 411 and was the 142nd most valuable fantasy player, coming in well ahead of his ADP. He was the 42nd-ranked second baseman by ADP when the prediction was made and finished 14th at the position. The opening sentence of the prediction mentioned, "Sosa should have every chance to fail in thls lineup," and he was indeed never pulled despite another season of an anemic walk rate. His success is wholly dependent on his ability to hit the ball hard and safely into play, but he could just as easily hover in the mid .250's in 2026 as he could regress to the low .200's, as he was in 2023. This was a fun prediction based on opportunity, but his path forward still makes me uneasy.

Four-Star Predictions

Andy Pages finishes as a top-60 outfielder (ADP 358)

I made this a four-star review rather than a five-star review, because my prediction was more to raise what was possible with the track record of those ahead of him on the roster and me being intrigued on how Pages finished the season offensively. I did not make any specific calls about performance other than saying he should be considered for the end-game outfield spots in 15-team mixed leagues. Pages finished the season 300 spots better than his ADP and was a five-category performer, showing us even more than what we thought possible when some of us had eyes on him in the Arizona Fall League a few years ago during the First Pitch Arizona conference.

Caleb Durbin is a top-350 player (ADP 466)

Durbin, like Pages, was a prediction made on belief in skills, because at the time of the prediction, Durbin was the odd man out on the depth chart. Skills won out, and my closing thought which said, "Durbin is a slightly better version of 2024 Sal Frelick," did indeed materialize. Durbin was a key player in the Devin Williams deal for Milwaukee and they weren't shy to use him despite him never facing a pitch until this season. 

Ivan Herrera is a top-10 catcher (ADP 278)

We knew that Herrera would get more playing time at catcher with Willson Contreras's migration to first base, but it was unclear how much time would go to the offensive-minded Herrera or the defensive specialist, Pedro Pages. Herrera finished the season as the eigth most valuable catcher with a EAV of $11 and a final ranking of 136. Herrera's defense remains problematic, but his bat was strong enough that he became the Cardinals' primary designated hitter, as he had a 137 wRC+ with 19 homers, 54 runs scored, 66 RBI and eight steals. 

Two-Star Predictions

Jesus Sanchez is a top-200 overall player (ADP 254)

Sanchez finished the season with a EAV of $5 and was the 232nd best fantasy player by season's end. Sanchez did worse than 2024 overall, and it turns out the market was in fact valuing him properly. This is only a two-star review because the prediction was not a total bust like many we are about to review.

Nathaniel Lowe drives in 100-plus runs (ADP 252)

RBI are a matter of opportunity, but those opportunities did not materialize for Lowe with the Nationals struggling as badly as they did. Lowe drove in 50 runs with the Nationals in 440 at-bats before his release but then drove in 16 in just 100 at-bats with the Red Sox once he was acquired. He still fell 16 runs driven in short of the prediction, but he closed the regular season strong.

Gavin Lux is a top-15 second baseman (ADP 404)

The move to the Great American Smallpark had no impact on Lux as his run production declined from 2024, with only his batting average improving. He wasn't terrible, but few expected him to tread water like this under the circumstances. 

Spencer Horwitz is a top-200 overall player (ADP 317)

Horwitz had a late start to the sesaon due to injury, but once he took the field, he did exactly what he did in 2024 and finsished the season with a EAV of $2 and an overall ranking of 284. Finishing inside the top 200 likely would not have happened even with a full season, but it could have been fun to watch given what he was able to do in 108 games. 

Xander Bogaerts is a top-3 second baseman (ADP 156)

Bogaerts finished the season with a EAV of $11 and was 168th overall. The market had him valued appropriately, but it is doubtful people were expecting the shoulder troubles which cut into his ability to drive the ball. His run production was on par with 2024, but an increase in steals saved his fantasy value on the season.

One-Star Predictions

Kristian Campbell is a top-15 second baseman (ADP 329)

Campbell surprised many by making the Opening Day roster, but it was all downhill from there. He showed a willingness to accept walks, but swung and missed too often around those walks and hit for little power. Even his 2025 Triple-A numbers were down from his 2024 levels as he dealt with adversity for the first time in his professional career. The buy-low opportunity is too tempting to ignore for 2026, but don't get too jumpy in drafts to get him back. 

Austin Wells is not a top-20 catcher (ADP: 205)

Wells finished 13th in the catcher rankings with 21 homers and 71 RBI. The issues against lefties were still present and his batting average did decline from 2024, but Wells had nearly dead-even home/road splits on the season. Wells isn't going to win you any batting titles, but he can still be productive with the talent around him setting the table rather nicely for him. 

Steward Berroa is a top-150 outfielder (not drafted)

Berroa's 2024 minor league numbers were too deceptive, and his 2025 performance with Toronto was terrible, leading to him being released twice and playing for three different organizations by season's end. This draft-and-hold end-gamer netted exactly zero major-league plate appearances this season. 

Sean Murphy is a top-eight fantasy catcher (ADP 240)

Murphy once again missed too much time due to injury and was limited to 94 games played. His 16 homers were welcomed, but he has now hit below .200 in consecutive seasons with Atlanta since hitting over .250 in the two seasons before this long dry spell. Worse yet, he just posted a career-worst 31.2 percent strikeout rate. His defense is going to keep him around as a second catcher, but his 2022 and 2023 performances are objects further way in the rearview mirror than they appear. 

Jhonkensy Noel is a top-60 outfielder (ADP 380)

Big Christmas was a lump of coal on fantasy rosters as he hit .162 with six homers on the season across 69 games. He struck out more often and walked less often in 2025 than he did in 2024 and failed to capitalize on his big postseason moment last October. He still has tremendous power but also tremedous holes in his swing that don't appear to be closing any time soon.

Jonathan India is a top-15 second baseman (ADP 256)

India finished the season 400th overall, so the market as well as myself put too much faith in the Kansas City fountains of statistical improbability. India stopped stealing bases once he went 0-for-4 in his first four attempts, and his overall run production declined with a loss in playing time as well as a demotion in the batting lineup. One cannot help but wonder how much of a tax came from Kansas City asking India to play three positions during the season, as he played his normal second base but also third and left field for 20-plus games each, having never playing either position at the major-league level in previous seasons. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez is a top-75 outfielder (ADP 510)

Rodriguez never made it to the big-league level in 2025 and only played in 52 games with Triple-A due to more issues with injuries. He remains an intriguing prospect because of his insane walk rates, but his inability to stay on the field is becoming increasingly frustrating for prospectors and dyansty managers.

Jorge Soler is a top-150 player (ADP 222)

This one hurt me in multiple leagues. Soler missed half the season with back troubles and failed to launch anything. That 2023 season with Miami, of all places, was fun, but the reality of Soler's two most recent seasons screams that it's time for him to consider continuing his playing career overseas somewhere. The sun has set on MLB Soler Power.

Pedro Leon is a top-100 outfielder (ADP 745)

Leon never reached Houston and only played in 25 games in the minors due to injury.

Dylan Moore is a top-30 middle infielder (ADP 384)

My fellow UCF alumnus got off to a terrible start with Seattle which resulted in lost playing time and cut into his ability to do the one thing I really wanted from Moore: steals. Had Moore been able to draw walks as he had previously done, he could have flourished on the bases under Dan Wilson's lead foot, but Moore fell apart and has likely seen a guaranteed major-league contract for the last time. 

Evan Carter is a top-50 outfielder (ADP 288)

Carter was once again hit with back troubles, as back spasms along with a quad injury hindered him in 2025. Carter is still just 23 years old but seemingly has the back of a 53-year old man (which I am), and a hitter without a healthy core is nothing. Carter did steal 14 bases in 16 attempts and greatly reduced his strikeout rate from 2024, but some of that could be attributed to a change in approach after he realized the futility of attempting to swing for the fences with a bad back.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is not a top-300 player (ADP 227)

Chalk this one up to what I wrote about last month and not showing enough respect to the baseball elders. Gurriel was enjoying a solid run-production season before a gruesome late-season knee injury ended his season. He was on pace to set a career-high RBI total and likely would have set a new home-run high had he not suffered the knee injury. Gurriel enjoyed the opportunities the supporting cast in Arizona provided him and picked up where he left off in 2024 rather than declining as I was concerned he would given several stastical indicators. 

Michael Toglia is the best Italian first baseman (ADP 191)

Just take everything I said about Jhonkensy Noel and apply it here. This one, like Soler, burned me in multiple leagues, as I believed Toglia was showing signs of working through his massive contact issues. Silly me to assume Colorado could help players improve. 

Jerar Encarnacion is a top-100 outfielder (ADP 575)

Encarnacion fractured his hand in the final week of Spring Training and also dealt with two different stints on the injured list due to oblique and hamstring injuries. He amassed just 161 plate appearances around injuries between the minors and majors but still hit the ball hard. He is still going to end up on a 50-round roster of mine this winter.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is not a top-60 outfielder (ADP 133)

I've said what I have to say on this matter. This was arguably my worst prediction of the year, if not ever. I refuse to pay his market price this winter, because that .216/.262/.372 triple-slash line for the second half with just six homers after the break is what nightmares are made of. 

I am overall pleased, with nine of these 30 predictions playing out very well, but I'm frustrated with 16 of the 30 doing so poorly due to poor skills performance, injury issues and too much wishcasting. A 30 percent hit rate on these still has me on target for my annual goal, so we will see where I landed on my pitching predictions in the next installment of this column.