This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Wednesday April 9th
Previous article 1-2 (-1.18 units)
Season 13-15 (-4.44 units)
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Observations from Tuesday's MLB slate
Keep paying attention to weather, especially the temperatures. Also be careful laying -1.5 runs in games with low total or lower temperatures. It got me yesterday on the Guardians / White Sox game where Cleveland won 1-0 and did not cover the run line.
We also had a situation where it made sense to fade the Dodgers as heavy favorites on the road with a subpar pitcher starting. That is where you are going to make money fading them.
Here are the homeruns per game based on temperature
Below 50 degrees - 1.04 (23 games)
In the 50s - 1.86 (14 games)
Roof Closed - 2.13 (8 games)
Above 60 degrees - 2.40 (20 games)
Coors Field - 3.00 (4 games)
Observations from Wednesday's MLB slate
Road Favorites - Dodgers -174 at Nationals, Yankees -154 at Tigers, Brewers -140 at Rockies, Astros -130 at Mariners
Home Favorites (Largest) - Mets -205 vs Marlins, Guardians -184 vs White Sox, Cubs -150 vs. Rangers
Totals - 7.0 (Mets/Marlins, Yankees/Tigers), 10.0 (A's/Padres, Brewers/Rockies)
Line Movement
Mets from -238 to -207
Rangers/Reds from 8.5 to 7.5
A's from +110 to -120
Padres/A's from 9 to 10
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Best MLB Bets Today
Chicago White Sox 
at Cleveland Guardians 
Picks
I mentioned yesterday about staying careful going against the White Sox, especially on the run line. Well, I did just that and ended up on the losing end,with Cleveland winning 1-0.
We get another opportunity to look at the White Sox tonight, with Sean Burke against Logan Allen. Shane Smith shut down this Guardians lineup yesterday and with the temperature in the low 40s, you have expect runs will be at a premium again.
Allen had a 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 2024. While the Guardians are known as pitching whisperers, this guy is not hearing what they are saying. Add that to his rough first start against the Padres, where he allowed 7 hits and 5 walks vs. just 1 strikeout in 5.1 innings. Burke has been a mixed bag in his first two starts with a gem against the Angels before he got rocked by the Twins.
I can't lay -184 at home with a pitcher like Logan Allen, so we might as well take the value with the White Sox here but F5 and not the full game.
MLB Best Bet: White Sox F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +140)
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Philadelphia Phillies 
at Atlanta Braves Picks
Another game in this matchup pitting two top teams in the NL East, with the Phillies visiting the Braves. The Phillies will go with Taijuan Walker (welp) against Grant Holmes.
Walker had a 7.10 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in 83.2 innings last season and I do not expect him to last long in this game. If you are looking at any Braves team props or Walker props, fire away. Do not get fooled by Walker's first start which was against the Rockies away from Coors. Holmes first start was the toughest assignment a pitcher can draw, going against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.
I will fade Taijuan Walker until I see something change. I like Grant Holmes as a pitcher and getting him as a small favorite works here.
This is all about fading Walker and expecting the Braves offense to breakout after 7 runs last night.
MLB Best Bet: Braves -0.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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San Diego Padres 
at Athletics Picks
Taking UNDER in A's games was a staple because of their ballpark, but my how things have changed with the switch to the band box in Sacramento. We have a total of 10 that opened 9, and the A's went from a +120 dog to a -110 favorite.
The team total for the A's was 4.5 but with heavy juice, so knowing I want to attack Randy Vasquez anyways, the F5 team total is much more attractive. Vasquez has allowed 9 walks in 10 innings while only striking out 5. That will only last so long before teams start to blow him up or the Padres take him out of the rotation.
MLB Best Bet: Athletics OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
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MLB Picks Recap
- White Sox F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +140)
- Braves -0.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Athletics OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
