MLB Bets Today: MLB Bets and Props for Wednesday, August 6
2025 Betting Record: 25-26-1 (-1.56 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 14-10 (+2.72 units)
On Wednesday's all-day slate, I'm looking at a pair of AL clashes in the evening portion where I'm targeting a couple of potentially vulnerable pitchers with both game bets and props.
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Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox Best Bets
This AL battle features an intriguing pitching matchup between the red-hot Michael Wacha for the visitors and Dustin May for the hosts in his Red Sox debut. Wacha checks in with a 1.48 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 over the 24.1 innings covering his last four starts. He continues to get by with plenty of veteran savvy. He's averaging just under six Ks per nine innings during that span and is also doing a good job limiting hard contact (7.3% Barrel%, 33.1% Hard-Hit% allowed).
Wacha has also done a very good job wiggling out of jams – he has respective .202 and .215 BAAs with runners in scoring position and runners on base overall. Although he's had a couple of second-inning hiccups, he holds ERAs of 0.82 and 2.05 in the first and third innings, respectively. He's also fared well at Fenway, posting a 6-2 record, 2.88 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 12 career appearances.
As mentioned, May is stepping into the AL waters for the first time as a member of a Junior Circuit rotation. He arrives in the midst of a rocky season that's seen him post a 6-7 record, 4.85 ERA, .267 xBA and .351 xwOBA during 19 appearances (18 starts) with the Dodgers. He just pitched at Fenway in his final start with LA and ran into some issues, allowing four runs on five hits over five innings to his now teammates.
May has had the bulk of his trouble when pitching outside Dodger Stadium this season, as he carries a 7.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 1.7 HR/9 across 47 road frames. While tonight's start is naturally now a "home" outing for May, it's a generally unfamiliar ballpark for him and he also will be working with a new battery mate. Additionally, current Royals hitters have given May fits in the past, posting a collective .417 average and 1.226 OPS across 29 career encounters.
We're getting plus money here on the Royals having at least a one-run advantage after three. While I think Wacha does cool off in this start and Boston eventually breaks through for a few runs as well, May's 7.00 ERA in the first inning and .823 and .840 OPS allowed in the second and third frames gives me some confidence in this bet and in the Over on May's hits-allowed prop.
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MLB Picks for Royals vs Red Sox
- Royals moneyline - F3 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Dustin May Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
The White Sox's Jonathan Cannon has been up and down all season, as evidenced by his 4-8 record, 4.77 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9. The young right-hander has allowed five or six earned runs in five of his 16 starts, and four earned runs in another. Cannon has had a tad more trouble on the road, where his ERA stands at 4.94 (compared to 4.45 at Guaranteed Rate Field).
Cannon has worked himself into trouble early in games, as he has an abysmal 9.56 ERA in the first inning while allowing a .397 average, 1.246 OPS and 58 total bases. He's been good in the second inning (3.00 ERA, .177 BAA), but the third inning has seen him post a 7.00 ERA while allowing an .852 OPS.
Opposing batters have generated slash lines of .320/.389/.624 and .260/.333/.439 their first and second times, respectively, facing Cannon in a game. The Mariners have been a more productive offense on the road this season, but they're swinging hot bats at the moment with 5.7 runs per game over the last three contests and at least four runs scored in six straight games.
Additionally, Cannon has struggled against left-handed hitters, surrendering a .326 average, .382 wOBA and 1.2 HR/9 to that handedness on the road. In turn, the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco has slugged 17 of his 18 homers off righties, with 10 of those coming at home. He also has an .841 OPS and .354 wOBA versus right-handers at home and is averaging 1.9 hits + runs + RBI per game, putting that prop in play for him in a game where the Mariners are projected for a solid 4.7 runs.
MLB Picks for White Sox vs Mariners
- Mariners -0.5 - F3 (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jorge Polanco 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Royals moneyline - F3 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Dustin May Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Mariners -0.5 - F3 (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Jorge Polanco 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
