A somewhat abbreviated nine-game main slate awaits Tuesday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:10 p.m. EDT. Six arms are priced in a pay-up tier, and nine listed arms are priced under $8,000, so we've either got some sneaky values on the mound, or a plethora of offenses to target.
To my surprise, the lines suggest it's the former, not the latter, as we have only two games with run lines north of 9.0 in Orioles-Red Sox and, unsurprisingly, Dodgers-Rockies at Coors Field. The Dodgers are also the slate's biggest favorite at (-270), but that's unlikely to offer a pitching lean. The Padres at (-225) follow closely. We'll need to track rain chances in Tampa Bay, while winds look favorable in Denver and unfavorable in Chicago, though that can always change.
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Pitching
Jacob Lopez, Athletics at MIN ($9,200): Yes, I'd probably prefer Hunter Greene at $9,900 or Nick Pivetta at $9,700, but for a few bucks less, we can target a surging Lopez for a potentially elite ceiling. He hasn't allowed a run in his last four starts, spanning 24.0 innings, while striking out 28. Minnesota has a decent 23.4 percent K rate against lefties and only a 92 wRC+. Lopez is likely overdue to allow some damage, but until he does, ride the wave.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI vs. CLE ($8,000): There really isn't a middle tier of pitching options with just three arms priced in the $8,000 range. Rodriguez is all about the strikeout potential, as he rarely has clean outings. The Guardians should oblige some with a 23.3 percent K rate and a weak .282 wOBA and 79 wRC+ off lefties.
Bryce Elder, ATL vs. CWS ($7,300): You're likely going to have to take a stand with Elder on Tuesday; use him and pay for Dodger bats, or fade him and entertain the White Sox offense that erupted for 13 runs Monday. Elder has shown to be capable of spike performances and has two quality starts in his last three. He also has a 6.66 home ERA (5.89 FIP) while averaging just 5.7 K/9. It's a favorable matchup for an undesirable arm.
Top Targets
You obviously have to start with a piece of the Dodgers against Austin Gomber and his 7.11 home ERA (6.16 FIP). He has odd splits, getting hammered at home against righties but proving to be stingy against lefties, but that completely reverses outside Coors Field. Shohei Ohtani ($5,100) goes without saying if you can fit him in, but Mookie Betts ($3,700) and Freddie Freeman ($3,900) are only slightly priced up. They're a combined 10-for-25 (.400) with three homers off Gomber.
Michael Harris ($3,300) pounded out four more hits and a homer last night. His salary continues to rise, to where I question the overall ceiling, but he's too hot to take out of lineups.
Bargain Bats
We'll want parts of the Red Sox-Orioles game given the high total, and Baltimore has some interesting values, assuming they start. Samuel Basallo ($2,300) hasn't missed a beat in two games since being promoted. Ryan Mountcastle ($2,800) has nine hits in his last four games and is a less obvious choice. On the Boston side, Masataka Yoshida ($2,500) figures to hit in a run-producing spot with a righty on the mound.
A Reds stack could work Tuesday, but Noelvi Marte ($3,200) is a fine standalone play, having collected 17 hits during a nine-game hitting streak. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks has allowed eight runs in his last 8.1 innings.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Kai-Wei Teng (Giants): Fernando Tatis ($3,400), Manny Machado ($3,300), Ramon Laureano ($2,900)
Teng has been lit up in two of his three big-league starts, which includes allowing six runs to the Padres in 1.2 innings last time up. San Diego has a solid 5.5 run expectancy Tuesday, the second highest on the slate, and are priced favorably to get multiple shares even if the offense's form isn't terrific. Laureano gives us some additional power potential to go with stars in Machado and Tatis, who has homered in three of his last five.
Rangers vs. Seth Lugo (Royals): Corey Seager ($3,200), Wyatt Langford ($3,000), Evan Carter ($2,900)
Lugo has allowed 15 hits and 13 runs over his last 8.0 innings, and to the lowly Twins and Nationals. If that form holds, we could get some nice value and lower roster percentages from the Rangers. Carter has seven hits over his last five games since returning from injury, while Langford has hit safely in eight of nine with two homers. Seager remains streaky, but when he's on, he offers slate-altering potential, and with five hits over the last two nights, it looks like a surge is beginning.
