FanDuel's Saturday main slate is a compact six-game contest, with first pitches between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Atlanta will be using its bullpen to get through nine innings, so we have only 11 starters to sort through and target against. Two of those are priced in five-figures, and everyone else is $8,800 or less, making for some interesting lineup construction.
Our lowest run lines come from Phillies-Reds and Marlins-Brewers at 8.5, with the other four games sitting at 9.0 or greater, so we should be able to find some offense. Weather looks to be a complete nonfactor, with no rain expected and no discernible wind advantages.
Pitching
Ryne Nelson, ARI vs. KC ($8,700): The payup options in Carlos Rodon ($10,000) and Ranger Suarez ($10,700) don't have elite options, but if paying up, Suarez is your man. This slate doesn't dictate required spending on arms, however, so we can start with Nelson and his current run of solid outings. He's gone for at least 30 FanDuel points in four straight, allowing three runs across 22.1 innings, striking out 21. The Royals don't strike out much at just 17.9 percent against right handers, but they don't do much damage either with just a .296 wOBA and 85 wRC+. The ceiling here isn't high, but the floor seems stable.
Dean Kremer, BAL at ATL ($8,500): I'll go back to the well and go against the Braves lineup until they show consistency, which being this late in the year, that's going to require multiple weeks of sustained success. They scored two runs last night, bringing their current form to 12 total runs across 45 innings, seven of which came in one blow up. Kremer is in great form, allowing two runs and 12 hits across 17.2 innings, striking out 17. Nothing suggests that form won't continue.
Mitchell Parker, WSH vs. BOS ($7,400): Multi-entry GPPs only for Parker, as I surely wouldn't trust him with just one dart. But he's in reasonable form, allowing seven runs across his last 17.0 innings. Boston hits lefties decently, but also strikes out at a 24.0 mark, giving Parker chances to give us points even if he allows some damage. Parker has been better at home (3.78 ERA), allowing lefties just a .292 wOBA. Six innings, six Ks and three runs allowed would work just fine at this price.
Top Targets
Miami's Cal Quantrill seems like an easy target against Saturday, but the splits make it less obvious. He's being crushed by right-handed bats, allowing a .439 wOBA and 1.031 OPS, but Milwaukee's righties don't hit same-handed arms well. That's going to force a choice between Christian Yelich ($3,700) from the left side (Quantrill allowing a .275 wOBA to lefties), or Jackson Chuorio ($3,600), who has just a 75 wRC+ and .276 wOBA off righties.
Kansas City's Michael Wacha has labored on the road, allowing a 4.53 ERA and 4.92 xFIP, but oddly doesn't have targetable splits. Nonetheless, it's always a fine day to build around Ketel Marte ($4,100), who boasts a .452 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .327 ISO off righties and has homered four times in his last seven.
Bargain Bats
The Mets' Frankie Montas allowed eight homers in 14.1 Triple-A innings and two in his first 9.0 big league frames, so we obviously want Yankee bats, which as always, are largely too expensive. Aaron Judge ($5,000) is fine, but you can't miss if paying that price. Jasson Dominguez ($2,900) gives us far more flexibility. He's got 16 hits, two homers and four steals over his last eight games.
I don't love the price points, but if you're fading Parker or think this game pops off on both sides, Boston's Romy Gonzalez ($3,100) has a .452 wOBA, 192 wRC+ and .296 ISO off lefties. Trevor Story ($3,300) hasn't faired tremendously against southpaws, but has 13 hits and nine RBI across his last six games.
Atlanta's bullpen has been decent, but tasking them with covering nine innings is a tall ask. It also makes it tough to target splits, so some secondary pieces to round out builds is my plan. Jordan Westburg ($2,900) homered last night, and I don't hate a punt play on power potential in Tyler O'Neil; ($2,500). Staying in Atlanta, Jurickson Profar ($2,900) has four hits and four runs scored in three games since his suspension was lifted.
Stack to Consider
Nationals vs. Walker Buehler (Red Sox): James Wood ($4,300), CJ Abrams ($3,800), Luis Garcia ($3,100)
Who would have thought we'd ever have a slate where stacking the Nationals is the clear and obvious play? Buehler is walking too many (4.3/9) and allowing too many homers (2.0/9), comes with a massive 9.49 road ERA, allowing a .420 wOBA and .970 OPS to lefties, and .479/1.140 to righties. It's a spot where you can possibly build out elsewhere and then grab multiple shares of the Washington lineup to round things out. But I'd also be anchoring my team around Wood and Abrams. Wood has 11 hits over his last seven games and gives us power upside, while Abrams has 10 hits over his last seven, scoring six times while stealing three bases. Garcia gives us a third option atop the order, has a marginal six hits over his last seven, and is also a threat to run.
