This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We're back with another Thursday article, and another split slate. While we have eight games in total, half of them are during the day and the other half are at night. We will focus on the day games because that's a much more interesting slate. One of the best pitchers in baseball is toeing the rubber against one of the worst offenses, so let's start there!
Pitching
Cole Ragans, KC vs. COL ($10,100)
Watching my local Rockies play baseball is generally a painful experience, but it's even worse when they're on the road. This offense always struggles outside Coors Field, ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA on the road over the last three seasons. They might have their worst lineup in that three-year span, and are projected to score just three runs in this game. We'd use any arm against them, but Ragans is an ace. The Royals lefty has a 3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 15.5 K/9 rate across his last four starts. That's not far off his 3.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last three seasons, which is why he's a -240 favorite in this magical matchup.
Chris Paddack, MIN vs. CWS ($6,500)
This is one of the riskiest recommendations I've had all season, but it shows just how special this matchup can be. Let's start there because the White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA since the start of last season. That's why Paddack is a -225 favorite in this matchup, which alone makes him an incredible value at this salary. His 7.27 ERA is awful on the surface, but his 4.62 xERA indicates that some positive regression could be right around the corner. That tends to happen against woeful teams like the White Sox, with Paddack posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 rate in two starts against them last year. Paddack has also surrendered just five combined hits across his last two starts.
Top Targets
Bobby Witt, KC ($3,900) vs. Chase Dollander
With only four games on this slate, Witt is an easy option up top. The AL MVP candidate has been one of the best players in DFS since his call-up, averaging 11.5 FanDuel points per game this year. His average was closer to 15 FD points last season, and it's just a matter of time before he gets back there. A home matchup against the Rockies could kickstart that inevitable run, with Witt tallying a .386 OBP, .606 SLG and .992 OPS at home over the last three years. We're obviously not worried about a 29th-ranked Rockies staff, and we'll dive into that in the stacks section.
Bargain Bats
Tyler Fitzgerald, SF ($2,900) vs. Tobias Myers
Fitzgerald has terrible plate discipline, but this guy is always a useful DFS option due to his speed-power combo. The shortstop has 17 homers and 22 steals across 117 games since the start of last year. That's an amazing per-game rate from a sub-$3K player, especially with how hot he is right now. Fitzgerald has a .395 AVG and 1.097 OPS across his last 11 outings while facing a pitcher making his season debut.
Andrew Benintendi, CWS ($2,900) vs. Chris Paddack
While we like Paddack as a value play among the pitchers, we can't overlook the fact that he has an ERA above 7.00. We're willing to use him because the White Sox are so woeful, but Benintendi has been their best bat. The outfielder has homered in two of his last five fixtures, generating a .273 AVG and .811 OPS against righties this year. He's also seen Paddack well, posting a 1.125 OPS in eight at-bats against him.
Trevor Larnach, MIN ($2,600) vs. Shane Smith
This Twins lineup has been struggling this season, but it's not Larnach's fault. He's been moved into their cleanup spot recently, going 2-for-3 with a home run on Wednesday. That means he's homered in three of five games in his five-game hitting streak, averaging 17 FD points per game in that span. The splits are impossible to overlook, too, with Larnach amassing a .768 OPS against righties and a .784 OPS at home since 2023. We're not worried about a matchup with a rookie like Smith, who's only thrown 29 innings above Double-A.
Stacks to Consider
Royals vs. Rockies (Dollander): Witt ($3,900), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,800), Salvador Perez ($2,700) and Jonathan India ($2,600)
There's only one team on this slate that's worth stacking, and it's probably an easy team to guess.
My Rockies are off to another rocking start, winning four of their first 22 games. The pitching has always been the problem with this organization, ranked 29th in ERA and WHIP. That's been a regular thing over the last decade, and Dollander has been adding to those dastardly numbers. The rookie has a 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, allowing nine runs across four innings in his most recent start. Not to mention, KC has been one of the best offenses at home over the last three years.
We obviously have to kickstart our stack with Witt, but pairing him with these sub-$3K players is a good way to approach this slate. Pasquantino is the second-best hitter on this team, tallying a .764 OPS against righties since 2023. He also had an OPS above .800 at home last season! As for Perez, he's one of the best catchers in baseball. Perez has 123 dingers since 2021, while hitting cleanup for this team. India is the projected leadoff hitter for KC, posting a .350 career OBP and .755 OPS.
