It's hard to believe, but we only have about a month remaining in the regular season. It's always sad to get to the end of a season because the baseball grind absorbs our everyday lives. That's one of my favorite parts about fantasy baseball, because it resembles life in that way. Battling every day to find edges is key in this business, and that's what we're going to try to do here. With that in mind, let's get started by looking at the arms.
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Pitching
Michael Wacha, KC vs. TEX ($8,200)
Not enough people talk about how consistent Wacha has been in recent years. The righty has a 3.31 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the last four years, never finishing above a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in that span. That consistency has been on full display recently, with Wacha allowing two runs or fewer in six straight starts. He also has a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in that span while generating a 2.67 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 rate at home this year. That's already a ton in his favor, but facing a terrible Texas lineup is tremendous, too. The Rangers rank 28th in OBP and wOBA, with Wacha dropping 23 DK points in their one matchup two months ago.
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. CLE ($7,800)
This might look like a silly option when examining Gallen's 5.31 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but this is a good spot for a bounce-back start. The righty faces a Guardians team that ranks 26th in runs scored, 28th in wOBA and dead-last in xwOBA. That's a great sign for Gallen given the way he's pitched at home over recent years, tallying a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 rate in Arizona since 2023. We're talking about a guy who has a 3.59 career ERA and 1.17 WHIP, so we should see a strong close to the season to regress those subpar averages back to the mean. He's showing glimpses of that positive regression, posting a 3.18 ERA across his last three starts.
Top Targets
Will Smith, LAD (vs. Kyle Freeland) $5,900
There are a few reasons why Smith is one of the best plays on the board. The biggest factor is that he's clearly the best option at the weakest position, and finding that sort of reliability is tough from any catcher. Another reason he's such a good option is that he gets to face a weak lefty in Coors Field. Not only is that the best hitter's park, but Smith has a .364 OBP and .845 OPS against lefties since 2023. That's awesome when considering his recent form, as he's tallied a .413 OBP and .950 OPS across his last 64 fixtures. Smith has some sensational BvP numbers against Freeland, too, sporting a .364 OBP, .550 SLG, and .914 OPS in 22 at-bats against him. We'll dive into Freeland's stats in the Stacks To Consider section.
Elly De La Cruz (vs. Victor Mederos) $5,800
There aren't many DFS options quite as special as De La Cruz. The shortstop ranks eighth on the slate with 9.5 DraftKings points per game, and he was even higher last year. He's also been rocking right-handers throughout his career, compiling a .380 OBP and .885 OPS against them this season. That's sensational since most of his steals have happened against right-handers, and this could be one of the worst ones on the slate. We'll dive into that more below. De La Cruz's power-speed combo is unmatched in baseball, giving him a massive floor against an unknown righty.
Bargain Bats
Heliot Ramos, SF (vs. Nestor Cortes) $4,000
Many people might not realize this, but Ramos has been one of the biggest southpaw slayers since his call-up. The everyday leadoff hitter in San Fran has a .286 AVG, .531 SLG and .890 OPS with the platoon advantage throughout his career. That's an absurd stat line from a $4K player, and it looks even better since Nasty Nestor has a 5.71 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this year. If you want to stack San Francisco hitters, Rafael Devers ($4,900) and Willy Adames ($4,500) would be the best pairings with Ramos.
Michael Harris, ATL (vs. Yoendrys Gomez) $3,500
Why is Harris still just $3,500? All DFS players know how bad he was in the first half of the season, but not many bats have been as good as his in the second half. Harris has a multi-hit game in eight straight outings while generating a .390 AVG, .720 SLG and 1.125 OPS across his last 29 games. That's a brilliant run for a full month, and there's no reason why Harris should be this cheap against an unfamiliar pitcher. Not only does he have the platoon advantage against Gomez, but the righty has a 5.56 ERA and 1.54 WHIP this year. Atlanta is one of the best teams to stack, with Ronald Acuna ($5,500), Matt Olson ($5,000), Marcell Ozuna ($3,800) and Ozzie Albies ($3,800) all in play.
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Freeland): Shohei Ohtani ($7,000), Smith ($5,900), Mookie Betts ($5,700), Teoscar Hernandez ($5,500)
As someone who lives in Colorado, I've been watching the Dodgers go crazy in Coors Field my entire life. The highest-scoring offense in baseball is a good option against anyone, but they're projected to score a slate-high seven runs in this magical matchup. It's one thing to be in the most hitter-friendly park in the sport, but it's another to face a pitcher who has a 5.18 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
We have to kickstart our stack with Ohtani because he's been the best player in fantasy over the last two years. In addition, Ohtani has a .426 OBP and 1.095 OPS across his last 32 fixtures. We already talked about Smith, but Betts has the platoon advantage as well. Mookie is starting to find a groove, amassing a .341 AVG and .855 OPS across his last 10 games. Hernandez also hits from the right side, registering a .953 OPS against southpaws this season.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels (Mederos): De La Cruz ($5,800), Matt McLain ($4,200) Austin Hays ($4,000), TJ Friedl ($3,900)
This is a strange part of the season, when we're going to see numerous random starts from pitchers we don't know much about. Mederos is one of those guys, and he's making his second career start here. It's not like he's earned it, though, totaling an 8.27 ERA and 2.02 WHIP across 16.1 career innings. That's rough against the Reds, who rank in the top 10 in runs scored.
The Reds are a sneaky stack because all of these guys are cheap around De La Cruz. McLain has been a fantasy stud, collecting 27 homers and 30 steals across 200 career games. Hays has quietly had a superb season in Cincy, accruing a .756 OPS. Friedl is the final option as the everyday leadoff hitter, totaling a .344 career OBP and .764 OPS.
