We're finally in the final week of the regular season! That's hard to believe, but we still have some of the best baseball ahead of us. What's unfortunate is that we only have three games making up this Monday card. It's difficult to understand why there are so few games to kick off the final week, but perhaps it's to have everyone rested for the final kick to the finish line. With that said, we have some fascinating matchups, so let's get started by discussing the arms.
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Pitching
Chris Sale, ATL vs. WAS ($9,500)
This may be Sale's last start of the season, and it's been another special one for the Cy Young winner. The lefty has a 2.35 ERA,1.07 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 rate in another special season. That even includes a slow start, with Sale sporting a 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 11.8 K/9 rate since April 30. That's one of the best stretches you'll ever see, with Sale scoring at least 27 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight starts. That should be easy to reach in a home start against Washington, with the Nationals ranked 24th in runs scored, 25th in OPS and 26th in wOBA. When he faced them last week, Sale spun eight scoreless innings en route to 34 DK points!
Justin Verlander, SF vs. STL ($6,700)
It's funny to have Sale and Verlander in this article because these guys have been mowing down hitters for over a decade. Verlander has actually been doing it for two decades, posting a 3.32 career ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He hasn't been quite as good this season, but his 0.87 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across his last five starts are a sign of a strong finish. He's also scored at least 17 DK points in nine of his last 11 outings, while posting better splits in San Fran. That's no surprise since it's one of the most spacious ballparks in baseball, and we love that since St. Louis sits 22nd in wOBA and 24th in xwOBA.
Freddy Peralta ($9,000) and Nick Pivetta ($8,500) are squaring off in San Diego. Both pitchers are viable options with how dominant they have been, but both are scary against these opposing offenses. That makes me want to fade that game altogether.
Top Targets
Matt Olson, ATL (vs. MacKenzie Gore) $5,000
It was a disappointing season for Olson until this final month. The slugger has been one of the best hitters in baseball through these closing weeks, collecting a .440 OBP and 1.233 OPS across his last 23 fixtures. That's the run that made this guy a 1.000 OPS player just two years ago, and it's clear the returns of Acuna and Profar have helped to protect this lineup. We'll discuss his matchup with Gore in the Stacks To Consider section, but his .375 career OBP against him is a solid sign.
Rafael Devers, SF (vs. Michael McGreevy) $5,400
I had such a difficult time picking a second stud with how many tough pitchers we have on this tiny slate, but Devers is a solid option. He's returned to the All-Star we all know and love in the second half, accruing a .356 OBP and .873 OPS across his last 23 outings. That's on par with the .349 career OBP and .854 OPS, with Devers totaling a .390 OBP and .895 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. McGreevy has been decent, but he's the second-worst pitcher on this slate. The Cardinals righty has a 4.48 xERA while allowing lefty bats to accrue a .847 OPS and .363 wOBA against him. If you want to stack San Fran, Willy Adames ($4,100) and Heliot Ramos ($3,700) are the best pairings with Devers.
Bargain Bats
Ozzie Albies, ATL (vs. Gore) $4,500
There's no doubt that this season has been a struggle for Albies, but he's showing signs of life over the closing month. The former All-Star has a .305 AVG, .558 SLG and .910 OPS across his last 24 outings. That's more in line with the stud we saw in the past, and we're talking about a guy who has an .844 OPS against left-handers over the last three years. The BvP numbers are impressive too, with Albies accumulating a .333 AVG and 1.000 OPS in 15 at-bats against Gore.
Alec Burleson, STL (vs. Verlander) $4,000
While we did recommend Verlander as a pitching option, it's nearly impossible to fade all the bats on such a short slate. We're willing to use a guy like Burleson against JV because he's the three-hole hitter for the Cards. That's no surprise since he has a .296 AVG and .841 OPS against righties this year. It's not like Verlander avoids volatility, generating a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP through his first 22 starts. Not to mention, Burleson has a .571 OBP and 1.405 OPS across his last five fixtures. You won't find many players in this price range with that much in his favor, and stacking Verlander with Burleson could be a contrarian stack. If you want to fade Verlander and stack St. Louis, we'd ride Brendan Donovan ($3,500) and Ivan Herrera ($4,700) alongside Burleson.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta vs. Washington Nationals (Gore): Ronald Acuna ($6,000), Olson ($5,000), Albies ($4,500), Jurickson Profar ($5,500), Michael Harris ($3,300)
With only four games on this tiny slate, we're going to ride Atlanta as the best stack of the day. While this team has been one of the biggest disappointments in MLB, they still have one of the most potent lineups. They were a top-five offense in nearly metric last season and have been close to that over the closing months. There aren't really any bad pitchers on this slate, but Gore has the most volatility. The lefty has a 6.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP across his last 10 starts.
With the matchup being so special, we have to recommend Acuna at the heart of this stack. Everyone talks about Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, but Acuna is just as good from a DFS standpoint. He's got a .382 career OBP and .904 OPS while showcasing some elite speed as well. Profar has been the everyday leadoff hitter, posting a .363 OBP and .842 OPS since coming off the IL nearly three months ago. Harris has a .285 AVG, .500 SLG and .802 OPS over his last 54 outings.
