This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks for May 9: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 0-3 (-3.00 units)
Season 37-49-1 (-13.93 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
Road Favorites - Padres -166 at Rockies, Marlins -146 at White Sox, Braves -145 at Pirates, Yankees -145 at Athletics
Home Favorites (Largest) - Tigers -265 vs Rangers, Astros -190 vs Reds, Mets -150 vs Cubs
Totals - Padres/Rockies 11.5, A's/Yankees 10.5-11.0, Dodgers/Dbacks 9.5-10.0, Angels/Orioles 9.5-10.0
Weather Conditions and Their Impact on MLB Betting Odds
+++ Brewers/Rays - 77-79 degrees and wind blowing out 8-14 mph
+++ Dodgers/Dbacks - 95-100 degrees (total is up to 9.5)
+++ Yankees/Athletics - 79-83 degrees and wind blowing out 7-8 mph
--- Phillies/Guardians - 45-50 degrees and wind blowing in 9-11 mph
Several games with temperatures in the 50s
MLB Line Movement
Red Sox -18, Dbacks -27
Padres/Rockies 10.5 to 11.5, Marlins/White Sox 7.5 to 8.5
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/8/25)
Top 5 (Mets, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 5 (Angels, Marlins, Dbacks, White Sox, Nationals). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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MLB Friday Best Bets and Predictions
San Diego Padres 
at Colorado Rockies 
Picks
This is a tough game to handicap as the total has jumped from 10.5 to 11.5. Unless there was 20 mph winds blowing out, I can not touch an 11.5 total either way. The Padres team total is a whopping 6.5 runs, which means they need to score 7 just to cash. That is another bet I would not want to make.
The best way I think to approach this game is to isolate the Padres offense against Antonio Senzatela who has allowed at least 4 runs in 4 out of his 7 starts including 2 at Coors.
The Rockies are a terrible team and on pace to be the worst of all time, so I can not put any faith on whether they will score 1 run or 6 runs in this game to get it OVER the game total. I also do not want to go against Randy Vasquez anymore despite his terrible numbers (24 walks to 13 strikeouts in 32.1 innings) as he has gotten me several times already.
MLB Best Bets: Padres OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Picks
Line movement is something you need to strongly consider, especially in baseball with a short shelf life when it comes to the posted odds. The total in Dodgers/Dbacks has already jumped and is hitting 10.0 in most spots. When a total moves like this based on a blend of weather, offenses, and pitching, it usually means the data is pretty strong.
I will follow the line movement crowd in this game with Roki Sasaki against Eduardo Rodriguez. Sasaki has a 24:20 K:BB ratio which also includes a 1.45 WHIP. He allows too many baserunners to get past this strong Dbacks offense especially in Arizona with 95-100 degree temperatures forecast. Rodriguez has a 5.92 ERA and allowed 7 homeruns.
There are some strong trends towards the OVER in this game.
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Dodgers' last 15 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games against LA Dodgers.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers.
MLB Best Bet: Dodgers/Dbacks OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -122)
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Cincinnati Reds 
at Houston Astros 
Picks
My man-crush, Hunter Brown, gets the start tonight against Nick Martinez and the Reds. Brown has been the best pitcher in baseball according to WAR (1.8) and I have been on him since June 1 of last season. Somehow, someway, Martinez keeps getting the job done despite really not having the stuff to be a major league starting pitcher.
The total is 9-3 to the UNDER in Brown's last 12 home starts.
MLB Best Bet: Reds/Astros UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -115)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Padres OVER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Dodgers/Dbacks OVER 9.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -122)
- Reds/Astros UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -115)
