This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
12 games await our lineup lock at 7:05 p.m. EDT Friday on FanDuel's main slate. It's a curious slate with regards to pitching, as only Houston's Hunter Brown ($11,000) is priced in five-figures, while only four more arms are priced in the $9,000 tier. That would seemingly suggest offense will be easy to come by, but the books don't support that, as four games have a low 7.5 run expectancy. Conversely, we've got obvious targets in Denver and Sacramento where Rockies - Padres has an 11.5 run total, and A's - Yankees sits at 10.5.
We need to keep an eye on rain chances in Tampa and New York, while there could be a moderate wind boost to hitters in Anaheim and Minnesota.
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Pitching
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. TOR ($9,200): This slate is rather disgusting across all the pitching matchups, as the matchups are either challenging or don't scream upside, outside of Brown. As such, we'll attempt to lean on high floor instead of high ceilings. Castillo gets the benefit of his home park being pitcher friendly, and faces a Jays lineup that comes with a .294 wOBA and 89 wRC+ off righties. They don't strike out much at just 19.3 percent, so we'll need Castillo to work deep into the game. He's off consecutive quality starts and has failed to go five innings just once all season. Toronto has an implied total of just 3.5 runs.
Jose Quintana, MIL at TB ($9,000): We've got a negative ballpark factor for Quintana, and the threat of rain, and I'm also not in love with the price point for an arm that's had a 37 FDP ceiling through his first five starts and is coming off allowing six runs in five innings his last time out. That all said, the Rays are a plus matchup for the lefty, carrying a weak .262 wOBA and 70 wRC+ into Friday while striking out at a 22.6 percent clip. The game has a 9.0 run total, so it's far from a safe spot and I'm struggling to find GPP upside in Quintana, but the stats say it's possible.
Nick Martinez, CIN at HOU ($8,000): This slate screams punt pitching, take what you can and load up offensively, so going below Martinez' price point is certainly an option. But there's a potential path for Martinez to give us a 4x or better return. Houston isn't in their past form, posting just a .301 wOBA and 94 wRC+, both below league average, while striking out 21.4 percent of the time. They're without Yordan Alvarez, seemignly limiting their potential to explode. Martinez has allowed just four runs over his last 17.2 innings, striking out 13. His 4.19 ERA comes with a 3.65 FIP, so at worst, he should maintain his current level of performance.
Top Targets
There's no need to overthink this. Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela is allowing a .402 wOBA to lefties and a .477 wOBA to righties, the latter number rising to .559 at home with a 1.332 OPS. Build around Fernando Tatis ($4,500) and/or Manny Machado ($3,900), who are a collective 13-for-38 (.342) off him.
Since his hitting streak was snapped, Bobby Witt ($4,100) has gone 10-for-22 (.455) with two homers, eith RBI, five runs and four steals across five games, averaging 26.2 fantasy points.
Fade Byron Buxton ($3,600) at your own risk. He went 0-for-2 Thursday, snapping a seven-game hitting streak, and still managed 18.4 FDP, his fourth straight game with at least that many. Giants' starter Jordan Hicks has been more vulnerable to lefties, but has a 6.35 ERA and 4.63 xFIP on the road, walking 4.8 per nine, giving Buxton multiple paths to points.
Bargain Bats
A's starter Osvaldo Bido is allowing a .500 wOBA and 1.180 OPS to righties at home. Yes, that makes Aaron Judge ($4,700) an obvious option, but perhaps we can squeeze some value out of the Yankees lineup from either Paul Goldschmidt ($3,200) or Anthony Volpe ($2,800). Volpe has cooled some over his last few, but has 12 hits in his last 11 games, while Goldschmidt has nine over his last nine.
The other side of this matchup is awfully similar. Yankees' starter Will Warren is allowing a .416 wOBA and .965 OPS to lefties on the road. That makes Tyler Soderstom ($3,500) the obvious answer, but perhaps there's more value in JJ Bleday ($2,800) or Nick Kurtz ($2,200), who remains priced too low for his potential, and has returned at least 9.2 fantasy points in four straight.
The Marlins come with a run expectancy of 5.0, only four teams sit at a higher mark. White Sox starter Bryse Wilson has a 6.91 home ERA, allowing a .491 wOBA and 1.136 OPS to righties. Agustin Ramirez ($3,100) has a .485 wOBA, 210 wRC+ and .455 ISO off righties, but I don't hate considering Connor Norby ($2,900) or Xavier Edwards ($2,800) to round out lineups.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Kyle Hendricks (Angels): Cedric Mullins ($3,200), Gunnar Henderson ($3,100), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,000)
The stats for Hendricks say this will fail, as he's been better at home, and tougher on lefties, allowing a 2.84 ERA and incredible .139 wOBA. But that comes with a 5.00 xFIP, 2.4 Ks/9 and .125 BABIP; surely it's not sustainable. We can get the top of the Orioles lineup discounted here. O'Hearn has a .428 wOBA, 183 wRC+ and .295 ISO, Henderson .381/151/.211 and Mullins .343/124/.224. Hendricks currently has a career-high 44.7 fly ball rate, and if the wind is indeed blowing out, someone is leaving the yard.
Dodgers vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (Diamondbacks): Freddie Freeman ($4,200), Will Smith ($3,100), Enrique Hernandez ($2,600)
With the Yankees and Padres being such obvious offenses to target, perhaps the Dodgers go under the radar. Rodriguez has allowed 15 runs across his last 16.0 innings, and we've got some plus BvP numbers to run with. Hernandez is 5-for-11 with a homer and 1.273 OPS off the D'Backs starter, comes with four-position eligibility and is dirt cheap, minimizing risk. Freeman is 6-for-12 off Rodriguez, while Smith has a .538 wOBA, 250 wRC+ and .409 ISO off lefties to date.
