This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
That break felt like way longer than a week, but that's always the case in MLB. Seeing these guys play every day and then having an abrupt week off in the middle of the season is bizarre because I don't really know what to do with myself. We were fortunate to get some Summer League games in the NBA, but I'm ecstatic to be back to the MLB grind. With that in mind, I have a 38-17-2 record so far this season after a 3-1 week before the break, so let's keep that rolling here!
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Chase Burns, CIN at WAS: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
Everyone will look at Burns' 6.19 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Boston bombarded him in his second start, but he has quietly been one of the best strikeout pitchers outside of that. If you remove that stinker, Burns has a 3.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 14.4 K/9 rate.
That's on par with the ace we saw in the minors, with Burns maintaining a 1.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 rate. The swing-and-miss stuff is obviously absurd, and this might be the lowest we see this strikeout total for the foreseeable future. It's not like Washington is a worrisome matchup, with the Nationals ranked 20th in OBP, 21st in wOBA and 22nd in OPS.
Drew Rasmussen, TB vs. CWS: More Than 14.5 Outs Recorded
This couldn't be a riskier pick, but we'll believe what Tampa is telling us. After being limited for three starts to preserve Rasmussen's innings, they've said he'll return to a normal starter's role after the break. Trusting reports can be risky, but this prop is low enough that we're willing to take that risk.
The main reason we're willing to trust Rasmussen is because he was a stud before that workload adjustment. Rasmussen has a 2.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in a breakout campaign. He also completed at least five innings in 15 of his first 16 starts, while registering a 2.64 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home. The home matchup with Chicago is the icing on the cake, with the White Sox ranked bottom three in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA since last season.
Casey Mize, DET at PIT: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
We just discussed how poor the White Sox offense has been, but the Pirates have been pitiful. This team is last in nearly every offensive category over the last two months, ranked 27th in K rate and last in runs scored, wOBA and OPS for the season. Those numbers are even worse in a pitcher's park like PNC, and they'll have trouble getting to a guy like Mize.
This Tigers pitcher has been one of the biggest breakouts in baseball, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He actually had a 2.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP before getting blown up in his final start before the break, and a matchup with the Pirates could help him get back to that. He also cleared this prop in three of four starts before that, and completed at least 15 outs in 14 of his first 16 starts.
Corey Seager, TEX vs. ATH: More Than 7.5 Fantasy Score
We mentioned a bunch of pitchers, so let's ride my favorite bat on this card. That's Seager, because he's slowly getting back to the superstar we all know and love. After a slow start, Seager has a .338 AVG, .468 OBP, .662 SLG and 1.130 OPS across his last 20 outings. We've seen this guy do this for months at a time, and we didn't even mention that he has a .396 OBP and .981 OPS against righties over the last three years.
It's unclear who will toe the mound for the A's today, but that alone is an intriguing variable. It sounds like it'll be between Osvaldo Bido and Jack Perkins, but we don't really care which guy is pitching. Bido has a 5.68 ERA and 1.70 WHIP while Perkins has yet to make a start at this level.
