This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
After going 2-2 in my first article back from the break, I now have a 40-19-2 record with my PrizePicks plays. My goal was to clear a 60 percent clip at the beginning of the season, and we're well on our way to that. The primary adjustment we need to make for these final two months is that we will be dealing with playoff variables. That means some teams will ride their starters more than usual, while the weaker ones will limit some of them. It's an interesting balance to figure out from a DFS standpoint, but it can help cash some props just by paying attention. We're not quite there yet, but we can use the trade deadline as another variable in our favor as well. That's happening this week, so keep an eye on player news!
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Jesus Luzardo, PHI at CWS: More Than 6.5 Strikeouts
The recent form from Luzardo is concerning, but that's not really an issue when clearing a strikeout prop. Despite his recent struggles, Luzardo has at least seven strikeouts in five of his last six starts. That's quite the run, since Luzardo had a 2.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 rate through his first 11 starts.
The best part about this for Luzardo is the cupcake matchup with Chicago. The White Sox rank 24th in K rate, 27th in runs scored, 28th in OBP and 29th in wOBA. Pitching outside of Philly might be beneficial for Luzardo since that's such a hitter's haven, with the lefty posting a 3.18 ERA across his last three road starts. One aspect that can't be overlooked is the fact that he's facing a White Sox team that's never seen him, and many of the players haven't seen his pitches. That's massive since many believe his recent issues are due to pitch tipping, but he's got the advantage here!
Logan Allen, CLE vs. COL: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Allen isn't necessarily the most talented pitcher in the league, but he's on one of his best runs. The lefty has allowed four runs or fewer in 18 of 19 starts this year, generating a 3.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across his last eight starts. Most importantly, Allen has completed at least 16 outs in nine straight outings.
The recent form is one thing, but this matchup with Colorado couldn't be better. The Rockies rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, xwOBA and K rate. Those numbers drop even further on the road, and they're going to have even more troubles after trading away their best hitter. That's why Allen enters this matchup as a -240 favorite, with Colorado projected to score only 3.5 runs!
Taylor Ward, LAA vs. TEX: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Patrick Corbin)
Ward has been one of the most underrated power hitters over the last two years. This slugger has 50 homers and 153 RBI since the start of last season, doing a ton of that damage against left-handers. In that same span, Ward has a .365 OBP and .894 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Those superb splits are more difficult to overlook when examining the recent form, with Ward amassing a .347 OBP and .891 OPS since May 5 while clearing this total in eight of his last 12 outings.
We would use Ward against any lefty, but Corbin is one of the best possible matchups. Despite having a bounce-back season, Corbin has a 5.39 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since 2020. Ward also has some phenomenal BvP numbers against Corbin, collecting a .500 OBP and 1.269 OPS in 14 at-bats against him.
Jorge Polanco, SEA at ATH: More Than 5.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Luis Severino)
Polanco is having a bizarre season. He was the hottest hitter in baseball through the opening month, but then couldn't hit a watermelon over the next two months. The good news is that Polanco has established his early-season form, providing a .357 OBP and .954 OPS across his last 18 outings. He's also flirting with an .800 OPS against right-handers for the year and gets to hit in the highest-scoring ballpark in the league!
We just mentioned that Sacramento has been a high-scoring park, and Severino could definitely tell you that. The righty has made 12 starts at home this year, registering a 6.68 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in Sactown. That's horrifying against this new-look lineup, especially since Severino has surrendered at least four runs in two of his last three starts against Seattle. Polanco also has some incredible BvP numbers against him, sporting a .429 OBP and 1.100 OPS in 16 at-bats against Severino.