This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
After going 2-2 last week, I'm now up to a 16-6 record for the season. I was really annoyed that we didn't cash the Luis L. Ortiz and Colin Rea props, with both guys missing by 0.5 strikeouts and 0.5 outs. The process was still correct with those picks, and we will continue to exploit some of the worst teams in baseball to cash these picks. With that in mind, let's kickstart things with a talented, young pitcher against one of the worst lineups I've ever seen!
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Andrew Abbott, CIN vs. CWS: More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
It feels unfair to recommend pitchers against the White Sox. If it weren't for the Rockies, we could consider this the worst offense in baseball. They rank bottom five in every major offensive statistic this season and have been last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA since the start of last year. They're also 27th in K rate and will likely have trouble against a pesky pitcher like Abbott.
This Cincy southpaw has been limited due to injuries throughout his career, but he's been successful whenever he's out there. He's allowed one run or fewer in four of five starts this season, compiling a 2.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9 rate. Abbott would only need to reach the fifth inning to surpass this total at his rate, and we expect the lefty to cruise to a quality start against one of the worst lineups in baseball.
Rhys Hoskins, MIL at CLE: More Than 5.0 Fantasy Score (vs. Logan Allen)
Hoskins has always been a favorite of mine whenever he faces lefties. Let's start with those splits, with Hoskins totaling a .388 career OBP, .507 SLG and .895 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That looks even better when examining Hoskins' recent form, amassing a .310 AVG and .907 OPS across his last eight outings, while reaching at least a 5.0 fantasy score in seven of those.
All of that means that Hoskins only needs one big hit or to get on base twice to clear this total, and that should be easy to achieve against a guy like Logan Allen. The Guardians lefty has a 5.36 xFIP and 1.67 WHIP this season while posting a 7.71 ERA and 2.21 WHIP across his last three starts.
Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. COL: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Kyle Freeland)
There's a good chance we'll use players against the Rockies and White Sox on every slate. That's just the nature of those teams right now, with Colorado sitting dead last in ERA, WHIP and wOBA. Kyle Freeland hasn't done anything to help those atrocious averages, accruing a 6.41 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
Those terrible totals from Freeland mean that Texas should be in for a ton of runs, projected to score five in this game. That's beneficial for their two-hole hitter, who should be in line for runs and RBI all night. The reason for that is his stupendous splits, sporting a .368 OBP and .880 OPS against lefties since his call-up.
Carlos Correa, MIN vs. BAL: More Than 5.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Cade Povich)
I had difficulty picking between Byron Buxton and Correa for this final spot, but we'll ride the shortstop since this total is so low. A poor start to the season has him projected to score just 5.5 fantasy points, but his splits indicate that he should clear this prop at ease. Correa has a .364 AVG and 1.119 OPS in 23 at-bats against lefties this year, but also had a .386 OBP and .971 OPS against them last season. He's also got a .364 AVG and .891 OPS across his last seven outings!
That form, paired with the splits, makes Correa an easy sell, but the matchup couldn't be much better. Minnesota faces Cade Povich, who has a 5.55 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in a nightmarish start to the season. In addition, Povich has allowed a .285 AVG, .351 OBP, and .852 OPS against righties throughout his career.
