This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
We had another successful 3-1 week in my most recent article, and I'm looking to finish the regular season strong. This is my final PrizePicks article throughout the regular season, and I was really pleased to hit over 60 percent of my picks this year. I wasn't sure what to expect at the beginning of the year, but I was pleased to see how easily my DFS knowledge played into the PrizePicks format. With that in mind, let's look at this final week!
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Brady Singer, CIN vs. PIT: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Cincinnati is quietly becoming one of the most dangerous teams in the league and Singer is a major reason why. This righty has allowed four runs or fewer in 10 straight starts, sporting a 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate in that span. The most important variable is that Singer has completed at least 17 outs in nine out of those 10 starts while clearing this prop in five straight home starts.
The recent form from Singer is stupendous, but this matchup couldn't be better. The Pirates rank dead last in runs scored, OPS and wOBA while posting even worse averages in the second half. Singer only completed 15 outs in his one home matchup with the Pirates, but that was early in April when the righty was building up his pitch count. With Cincy fighting for its playoff lives, look for them to ride their horse here.
Luis Gil, NYY vs. CWS: More Than 29.5 Fantasy Score
Gil was blown up in his most recent start, but he was incredible before that. This righty allowed two runs or fewer in his seven previous starts, providing a 1.89 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in that span. That's on par with the 3.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP we saw last season, with Gil posting better splits at home throughout his career.
It's easy to see why we want to use Gil when evaluating this matchup with Chicago. The White Sox rank 27th in OBP, 28th in wOBA and 26th in runs scored, which is somehow better than their statistics from last season. Those subpar stats were on full display when Gil allowed just four hits and two runs across 5.1 innings in a matchup between the two teams last month. He also enters this game as a -250 favorite.
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. COL: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
The season-long statistics from Miller are far from exciting, but he's slowly turning his season around. The Mariners pitcher has a 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate across his last four starts. Thats the sort of stretch we expected to see after Miller had a 2.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP last season. Injuries are the only thing that's slowed him down this year, but we love that he's thrown at least 89 pitches in three straight starts.
The most impactful variable here is that we have Miller facing the Rockies in Seattle. Not only is that one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, but Colorado has been the worst road offense for a decade now. It's hard to believe they could be any worse on the road, as the Rockies rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, K rate, OBP and xwOBA. We also don't mind that Miller has a 3.19 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 rate at home throughout his career.
Jorge Polanco, SEA vs. COL: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score (vs. McCade Brown)
The Mariners have been skyrocketing up the standings over the last month and many people believe it's because of all their deadline deals. That certainly plays a factor, but the resurgence of Polanco is equally as valuable. He's been hitting fifth recently amid his hot streak, tallying a .351 AVG, .691 SLG and 1.083 OPS across his last 27 outings. That's one of the best months any player has had all season, and he couldn't have asked for a better matchup.
The Mariners are one of the highest-projected offenses on this slate, facing a Rockies team that ranks last in ERA, WHIP and xwOBA. That's bad news for them because they're sending out a stop-gap in the worst rotation in baseball. That's Brown, who has a 9.17 ERA and 2.09 WHIP through his first five starts. He actually never pitched above A-Ball before this season, and that sort of step up in competition is clearly killing his confidence.
