Top MLB Betting Picks for September 30: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 ( -1.20 units)
Season 143-148-2 (-9.66 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Betting playoff baseball is a completely different animal as you have the best pitching, hitting, bullpens, etc going against each other. The moneylines will be tighter and the totals will be lower.
In the Wild Card round, the home team has a distinct advantage with all of the games in their park. There are no days off, but with only three games, the starting pitching depth is not as important. Teams' benches, bullpen depth, and managers do play a factor.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets and Predictions
The line opened Dodgers -176 and has been steamed up to -205. That is just too high of a price tag to pay with a pitcher like Hunter Greene going on the other side. That said, Blake Snell and the Dodgers bullpen being lined up has me looking at the Reds team total UNDER in this game.
In 5 home starts, Snell has a 1.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, with a 11.3 K/9. I think the Reds will have a very difficult time scoring runs tonight. In their last 10 games, they have averaged 3.4 runs.
The Reds struggle against left-handed pitching (21-25) and the Dodgers are much better at home versus on the road. They are also 69-46 versus right-handed pitching and 52-29 at home. In the last series between both teams in Los Angeles, the Dodgers held the Reds to 4 runs total over 3 games. The majority of games between these teams have gone under in recent years.
This Dodgers bullpen will become more of an issue and something to fade later on when they are in a deeper series on the road.
Best Bet: Reds UNDER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
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San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
Baseball playoffs are all about matchups, and this Padres team matches up extremely well against the Cubs. The Cubs lost their best pitcher, Cade Horton, to a rib injury and now have to pitch Matthew Boyd in game one. The season series is tied 3-3, but the games at Wrigley came much earlier in the season and are less meaningful now.
Boyd has been better at home versus on the road for the season, but he has struggled over the last two months. The home splits are still much better even over the last 60 days. So he should be able to keep this game close, but the Padres will have the lead and once it goes to the pen, they have a huge edge.
Nick Pivetta has had a great season, but he has also benefited from Petco Park in that it supresses flyballs and home runs. Even his ex-manager, Alex Cora, mentioned it when the Padres played the Red Sox.
Boyd's numbers really start to decline once he gets the second time through the lineup so he could have a quick hook if he gets in trouble in the 4th or 5th.
The Padres' biggest strength is their bullpen, and they can make this a 5-inning game, which is a huge edge when you look at Pivetta versus Boyd.
Best Bet: Padres ML for 1 unit (ESPN Bet +100)
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
This was the toughest game on the slate to handicap as we have Garrett Crochet against Max Fried. The Red Sox won the season series against the Yankees 9-4. While the Yankees get a lot of love in the public, you also have to note that they have beaten up on bad teams all year, and when they face a top-caliber pitcher and bullpen, they have struggled.
I mentioned in the intro that managers play a factor in the playoffs even more, and the Red Sox have a huge edge in that department with Alex Cora over Aaron Boone. When this game gets into the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, the Red Sox have the better bench and bullpen. The Red Sox achilles heel all season has been defense and runners in scoring position (most strikeouts) so if they do lose close games, it will be because of that.
I think the Red Sox find a way late in this game to win a close one.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +115)
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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bets and Predictions
The Tigers completed the biggest collapse in baseball history by blowing a 15 game lead in the AL Central. Even with their ace Tarik Skubal going today, I will lean towards the Guardians who are just a better overall team. They have won the season series this year and last year, but they also have a pretty good pitcher going in Gavin Williams.
The Tigers are a one-trick pony team, and once this game gets into the later innings, the Guardians' strengths of playing small ball and their bullpen will take over at home. Over the last 30 days, Cleveland has the best bullpen in baseball according to WAR and Detroit ranks 24th. Cleveland also has the 3rd fewest innings where Detroit has the sixth most. One team has a fully rested bullpen and the other is running on fumes because their starting pitching is poor.
Best Bet: Guardians ML for 1 unit (Caesars +140)
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Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
- Reds UNDER 2.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Padres ML for 1 unit (ESPN Bet +100)
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +115)
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (Caesars +140)
