Top MLB Betting Picks for July 29: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 3-1 ( +1.80 units) (parlays will not count for or against record, but will for units)
Season 97-101-1 (-7.44 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Tuesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Watch the heat, as always, in outdoor parks for totals.
Home Favorites - Guardians -225 vs Rockies, Yankees -190 vs Rays, Cardinals -185 vs Marlins
It has been very noticeable that home favorite moneylines -- and MLs in general -- have started to come down quite a bit. There have been very few days when we have gotten -200 and higher. It is getting to the point where you have teams that are playing very poorly just being too high of a favorite and we are seeing strong underdogs winning outright.
Road Favorites - Phillies -195 at White Sox, Dodgers -150 at Reds
Totals - Orioles/Blue Jays 10.5, Mariners/Athletics 10.5
Marlins/Cardinals 7.5-8.0, Pirates/Giants 7.5-8.0
Line Movement - Red Sox -15
Bullpen Rankings as of 7.25.25 (xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 Last 30 Days)
Top 10 (Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Marlins, Giants, Pirates, Phillies, Twins, Braves, Padres). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 10 (Angels, Rockies, Orioles, Royals, Yankees, Reds, Nationals, Dodgers, Dbacks, Mets). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet these teams, only focus on the F5 inning lines.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox Betting Picks
The White Sox have a whopping 139 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days and Jesus Luzardo has really hit the skids since May 31 with a 8.04 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, and 4.6 BB/9 ratio.
On the flip side, Jonathan Cannon has a 5.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP since May 18th, making it a juicy matchup for the Phillies' bats, who have a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. The White Sox have gone 8-2 to the OVER in Cannon's last 10 starts.
TRENDS
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago White Sox's last 10 games.
MLB Best Bets: Phillies/White Sox OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -120)
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds Best Bets
Oddsmakers continue to post high totals in Reds games and they do not seem to be making any adjustments. Yes, we get the Dodgers in town, but both starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Nick Lodolo should be getting more respect here. I think we have another game where the total is at least 0.5-1.0 runs too high.
TRENDS
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers' last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers' last 9 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games against LA Dodgers.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home.
MLB Best Bets: Dodgers/Reds UNDER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
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Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Best Bets and Predictions
This is a huge series between the top 2 teams in the National League Central division with the Brewers taking Monday's game 8-4. Quinn Priester was acquired from the Red Sox earlier in the season, and the Brewers just do what they do and develop arms. Priester has been one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball.
The Brewers used 6 relievers in Monday's game, but nobody had over 16 pitches so while there is some concern, I will still roll with Milwaukee and Priester. There is a premium on taking the Brewers F5 on the moneyline (-130) versus -115 for the full game.
MLB Best Bets: Brewers ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
MLB Picks Tuesday Recap
- Phillies/White Sox OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -120)
- Dodgers/Reds UNDER 9.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
- Brewers ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- BONUS PICK - Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -118)
- BONUS PICK - Nationals ML F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
