Top MLB Betting Picks for October 1: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-3 ( -1.85 units)
Season 144-151-2 (-11.51 units)
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Key MLB Betting Trends and Matchups Analysis
Before locking in your MLB bets Wednesday, be sure to check out these key betting numbers.
Betting playoff baseball is a completely different animal as you have the best pitching, hitting, bullpens, etc. going against each other. The moneylines will be tighter, and the totals will be lower.
In the wild-card round, the home team has a distinct advantage with all of the games in their park. There are no days off, but with only three games, the starting pitching depth is not as important. Teams' benches, bullpen depth, and managers do play a factor.
TUESDAY TAKEAWAYS
We saw right away that all of the low totals except the Reds-Dodgers made sense. The Tigers had their ace going, and they needed bad defense/baserunning by the Guardians to narrowly escape with a win. The Cubs got two solo back-to-back homers to beat the Padres. And, as I expected, the Red Sox kept it close in the first five, and won the game between the sixth and ninth innings. It also helped that Aaron Boone put out a questionable lineup, pulled Max Fried early, and went with Luke Weaver as the first pitcher out of the bullpen.
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Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets and Predictions
Everything looked right with the Reds Under last night, until the Dodgers got a 10-0 lead and then just put out their worst bullpen arms to allow a bunch of runs late.
I think the Dodgers close this one out Wednesday night, and in similar fashion. But, I can not lay -250 on the moneyline.
The best play here is to bank on RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto who has allowed just three earned runs over his last five starts. The juice gets ramped up if you look at the F5 Reds total of 1.5 runs. I will look at just the first time through the lineup with this play.
Best Bet: Reds UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
The margin of error in betting baseball in the playoffs is slim, and there is definitely more money to be made in the player props market. But, I only cover straight bets here. The Padres offensive woes showed up Tuesday in Game 1, and the Cubs' bullpen was the one who flexed their muscle.
Padres RHP Dylan Cease is a pitcher that I never want to back because of his control issues. I am not sure what to make of the Cubs pitching Wednesday because it sounds like a combination of LHP Shota Imanaga and RHP Andrew Kittredge, with the latter starting out.
The wind is blowing in again at Wrigley, and with the Padres' backs against the wall, they will deploy all of their bullpen arms. I think we see another low scoring game in this one.
Best Bet: Padres/Cubs UNDER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (+105 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
I had Game 1 in this series pegged to a tee, in that I predicted the Yankees might win innings 1-5, but the Red Sox would win innings 6-9 and take the game in a low-scoring close one. I was also banking on the Red Sox bench, bullpen, and managerial edge, which came through in a big way.
The matchup of Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello and Yankees LHP Carlos Rodon is a tough one to handicap, as Bello has great numbers in Yankee Stadium, but has been struggling over the last 30 days with a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Rodon has not gone more than five innings in any of his three starts against the Red Sox this year. I think both pitchers will be on very short leashes, and the first sign of trouble they will be out.
This will play into the edge that the Red Sox have with the combination of their bench, bullpen, and manager. The price is just too good to pass on Boston as a +150 road 'dog.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML for 1 unit (+151 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bets and Predictions
If you watched Game 1 Tuesday, you saw two great pitching performances. But you also saw two offenses struggle to score, and the Tigers needed a miracle to just win 2-1. I like the pitching matchup for Cleveland here with RHP Tanner Bibee against RHP Casey Mize. But, even more I like going against both offenses here, and will just look at the F5.
Best Bet: Tigers/Guardians UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Wednesday's MLB Best Bets
- Reds UNDER 0.5 runs F3 for 1 unit (-120 at DraftKings)
- Padres/Cubs UNDER 6.5 runs for 1 unit (+105 at Fanatics)
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (+151 at DraftKings)
- Tigers/Guardians UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (-120 at DraftKings)
