Willi Castro

Castro has the best season of his career as he became a solid utility player and a surprising source of stolen bases. After Castro was non-tendered by Detroit he had to settle for a minor league deal with the Twins and wasn't a sure bet to win a major league job. Castro got regular duty at third base in May when Jose Miranda struggled and hit .274 with a .780 OPS and 10 steals in the first two months of the season. He also became the backup center fielder when Byron Buxton was unable to play in the field. Castro gained manager Rocco Baldelli's confidence on the basepaths and went 33 for 38 in steal attempts. Castro drew more walks (8.3% BB%) and made harder contact (career-high 31.9% Hard Hit rate), but most of his underlying metrics were similar to his underwhelming 2022 season. A full-season career-high .328 BABIP may have indicated he was a bit lucky. However, Castro's versatility to be a plus glove around the infield and use his speed to be adequate in the outfield should help him carve out a steady role.

Once an emerging middle infield option for Detroit, Castro's path to regular playing time now seems to be in the outfield. He started 80 games in the outfield for the Tigers in 2022, while also seeing 16 games apiece at second base and shortstop. That was a drastic change from 2021, when Castro primarily played in the infield and only saw 10 outfield appearances. Offensively, Castro has shown flashes here and there, though his .651 OPS last year leaves room for growth. He has at least been able to reduce his strikeouts the past few seasons. Castro struck out just under 31 percent of the time as a rookie in 2019. He lowered that to a career-best 20.9 percent in 2022. The slight improvements weren't enough to convince Detroit to keep him around, and he wasn't tendered a contract for 2023. Castro subsequently joined Minnesota on a minor-league deal and is unlikely to work as any more than a utility man should he see the majors.

No one expected Castro to approach the .931 he registered in the pandemic season, but last year's fall from grace was steeper than anticipated. Castro's plate skills and batted ball profile were virtually identical, but his .448 BABIP in 2020 and .275 mark last season were on opposite ends of the luck spectrum. Assuming his BABIP settles in the middle, Castro has some pop and can run, but he profiles more as a bench piece, at least on a contending team. He's a middle infielder by trade but Castro has dabbled at the hot corner and outfield so he could serve as a super-utility guy. The Tigers aren't quite ready to compete yet, so Castro may get another chance to prove he's a regular, but there's nothing in his resume worth chasing for a fantasy breakout.

Castro won't hit .349 (or even .300) over a full season. It was encouraging to see a big improvement over the .230 mark posted in 110 PA the year prior, although Castro's 27.1 K% and 85.3 mph average exit velocity don't support a lofty average. A 41.9% groundball rate with 84th percentile speed buoyed an unsustainable .448 BABIP. Plus, an 86.2-mph flyball average exit velocity doesn't back a 20.7% rate on HR/FB. Countering some of the regression will be physical maturation and skills growth as Castro will be just 24 years old as he embarks on his first full campaign. It's curious why Castro only tried one steal after swiping 17 of 21 as a 22-year-old at Triple-A. Shortstop is loaded and deep while Castro has yet to establish a trustworthy baseline. Helping his case is bonus third-base eligibility in many leagues.

We've been spoiled by some elite prospects this decade. Now when a prospect struggles initially, we have a tendency to label the player as one thing and mostly write them off. Let's give Castro another shot before we put him out of our collective consciousness. At 22 years old, Castro hit over .300 at Triple-A with 11 homers and 17 steals in 21 attempts. He struck out 21% of the time at that level, but that number jumped to north of 30% in the majors and he recorded only one barrel among 68 batted-ball events. Given the batted-ball numbers, it's reasonable to be skeptical about Castro hitting for the kinds of averages we saw on the farm, but Castro's average sprint speed ranked in the 86th percentile and opportunity should be there on a rebuilding Tigers club. He will compete for a starting role in spring training.

The first half of 2018 was a disappointment, but Castro turned it on after a deadline trade to the Tigers, posting a robust 155 wRC+ in 26 games with Double-A Erie to earn a promotion to Triple-A to close out his age-21 season. Castro does not project to provide a lot of category juice -- he's topped out with 11 home runs and 20 steals, the latter being a generous reflection of his speed. However, he has displayed decent bat-to-ball ability for his age, with his strikeout rate never exceeding 21.9% over a meaningful sample. There's also at least some hope for more power as he matures and fills out his 6-foot-1 frame. Detroit brought in Jordy Mercer as a stopgap at shortstop and Niko Goodrum is seemingly locked in at second base for the time being, so it's difficult to imagine we see Castro debut in 2019. If he builds on his late run at Triple-A, we could see Castro early on in 2020.

Last season was Castro's first year in pro ball as an above-league-average hitter (115 wRC+), but the breakout at High-A in his age-20 season looks legitimate. His 11 homers topped his career total entering the year (10 in 236 games), but his 8.3 percent HR/FB was not alarming, and it simply looks like a young player naturally growing into some pop. He has 64 career steals, but with just slightly above-average speed and a career 66.7 percent success rate, it would be foolish to expect him to steal more than 10 or 12 bases annually in his early years in the majors. Castro cut his pull rate from 50 percent at Low-A to 43.7 percent at High-A, and considering he excels at making contact (17.6 percent strikeout rate), he should be able to continue to hit for fairly high batting averages in the upper levels. He could stick at shortstop, but will likely eventually move to second base or center field if he remains with the Indians.

A switch-hitting shortstop from Puerto Rico, Castro held his own as a 19-year-old at Low-A. Perhaps predictably, he struggled at times to make contact. Castro hit .259 with a .283 OBP in 123 games. He fanned 96 times while drawing just 16 walks. Still, Castro showed an intriguing power/speed combination, smacking seven home runs while swiping 16 bases. The potential for double-digit home runs and stolen bases for a 19-year-old at a middle infield position makes him a prospect to watch. He is built in the same mold as current Indians superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, though nobody is saying Castro has anywhere near that kind of ceiling. He must refine his approach and exercise more patience at the dish. Castro should start the 2017 campaign at High-A.

Castro, 18, offers a hit-over-power with a little speed offensive profile at shortstop. At 6-foot-1 and 165 pounds, there is room to project a tad more power down the road, but batting average, runs, and steals will be the foundation of his fantasy value. He slashed .264/.304/.330 with one home run and 20 steals (on 27 attempts) in 67 games in the New York-Penn League, where the average player was more than three years his senior. His 10.3% K-rate also demonstrates an advanced ability to make contact, although the fact that he has never posted a BABIP over .295 suggests that contact is often weak. While shortstops with Castro’s profile, such as Erick Aybar, are useful once they reach the big leagues, his lack of double-digit home run power and an ETA of at least 2019 makes him difficult to roster in most formats.