World Baseball Classic Preview and Best Bets

The 2026 World Baseball Classic begins Wednesday night in Tokyo with Australia taking on Taiwan. Four pools of five teams each will compete across the globe in Tokyo, Houston, Miami and San Juan, Puerto Rico over the next week, with the top two teams from each pool advancing to the single-elimination knockout rounds in Houston and Miami. The final will take place in Miami on March 17.

Will defending champions Japan be able to pull off their fourth victory in the first six editions of the tournament? Will a better than ever United States squad get its revenge after losing to Japan in the 2023 final? Or could we see a second victory for a loaded Dominican squad, or perhaps a first-time winner like Venezuela or Mexico?

World Baseball Classic History

Early editions of the tournament faced varying levels of buy-in from players of different countries. Japan and South Korea took the tournament very seriously, sending full-strength teams and being rewarded with plenty of success. American players, meanwhile, tended to prioritize spring training instead, and thus the United States managed nothing more than a single fourth-place finish across the first three World Baseball Classics.

That has changed over the last decade, with the United States sending stronger teams and making back-to-back finals as a result. Japan's victory in 2023 reveals that even a strong American squad is no lock to win the tournament, however. This year's United States squad looks to have leveled up yet again, as the Americans have finally convinced the likes of Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes and Logan Webb to participate after using a rotation of Merrill Kelly, Lance Lynn, Nick Martinez and 41-year-old Adam Wainwright the last time out. Will that be enough?

World Baseball Classic Betting Tips

In this article, I'll break down all four pools and give my best bets for each, as well as giving my best bets to win it all. But first, here are three things that bettors should keep in mind which make this tournament so unique.

1. Playoff baseball played over five- and seven-game series always trends towards closer to a 50/50 proposition than you might think. Single-elimination baseball tilts even more in that direction.
2. Players will be taking these games much more seriously than they take spring training exhibition contests, but it's still early March, so no one is in midseason form. In particular, don't expect any pitcher to be used heavily. Pitchers are limited to 65 pitches in pool play, 80 pitches in the quarterfinals, and 95 in the semifinals and finals, so expect a lot of two-, three- and four-inning starts.
3. The gaps in talent between the best and worst teams in this tournament are vast. So vast, in fact, that there's a mercy rule in place for the group stage. If a team is up by 15 runs after five innings, or 10 runs after seven, the game will be over. Is anyone else getting flashbacks to high school?

Overall, expect a few blowouts but overall much more variance than we're used to in baseball, given both the brief length of the tournament and the fact that we don't entirely know where each player stands with regards to their personal preparedness at this point of the year. 

Odds to Win 2026 WBC Pool A

Location: Hiram Bithorn Stadium, San Juan, Puerto Rico

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 4.

Pool A is easily the most balanced pool in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Based on their past tournament resumes, you might think Puerto Rico and Cuba should comfortably advance from this group, but that isn't the case. As has often happened in recent tournaments, political complications have prevented most of Cuba's MLB stars from suiting up for the national team, leaving Yoan Moncada as arguably the team's top player. Meanwhile, insurance issues have severely hampered the Puerto Rican roster, leaving stars such as Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez unable to participate.

Puerto Rico does still have plenty of major-league talent, and their home-field advantage may still help them top the group, but all five of these teams have a legitimate chance to advance. In particular, this Canadian team looks more dangerous than usual and has a real shot to make the quarterfinals for the first time. Led by Josh Naylor, the Canadians can roll out a lineup that features MLB players in all nine spots, including up-and-coming outfielders Denzel Clarke and Owen Caissie. Colombia and Panama also feature plenty of MLB talent as well, albeit without much starpower.

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool A 

• Canada to win group (+280)
• Panama to advance (+300)

While I agree with this Puerto Rico team being listed as the favorites, I don't believe the odds reflect just how depleted this roster is after several players had to pull out for insurance reasons. A lineup which features Willi Castro, Heliot Ramos and a declining Nolan Arenado as its best hitters simply isn't very imposing, and there isn't much in the Puerto Rico pitching staff beyond Seth Lugo and closer Edwin Diaz. I think they'll more than likely advance, but the odds suggest they have a greater than 3-in-4 chance to do so, which doesn't seem accurate.

Meanwhile, Canada has the lineup depth to score plenty of runs against the weak pitching staffs often found in pool play, and they have a trio of proven MLB-caliber starters in Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka and Cal Quantrill. They're a good bet simply to advance (-110) as well, but consider chasing the bigger payout and betting on them topping the group, something which would likely require an upset victory over the hosts. 

Meanwhile, Panama, with considerably more MLB talent than Colombia and Cuba, seems mispriced as the fifth-ranked team in this group according to the odds. Panama was unlucky to be eliminated in 2023 as part of a group in which all five teams went 2-2, and they have enough big-league utility types like Jose Caballero and Edmundo Sosa to win two or three games again this year.

Odds to Win 2026 WBC Pool B

Location: Daikin Park, Houston, United States

We go from the tournament's most balanced pool to its most lopsided. This American squad is more talented than ever, with the country's best pitchers finally deciding to participate. Opposing teams could have to face Paul Skenes, Matthew Boyd, Griffin Jax, Gabe Speier, Brad Keller and Mason Miller all in the same game, and if all of those guys just pitched a day or two ago, they might be stuck facing Tarik Skubal, Clay Holmes, Garrett Whitlock, Garrett Cleavinger and David Bednar instead. A lineup which could begin Bobby Witt Jr.-Bryce Harper-Aaron Judge-Kyle Schwarber may not even have to score many runs for this team to go the distance.

Of course, anything can happen in a single game of baseball, and the United States actually lost a game to Mexico 11-5 in the previous tournament. (Admittedly, all 11 runs were given up by Nick Martinez, Brady Singer and Daniel Bard.) While Great Britain and Brazil will be in happy-to-be-here mode, with Britain's Bahamian-born infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. the only impact MLB player between the two squads, both Mexico and Italy have enough MLB talent that you can't rule out an upset.

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool B 

• Mexico to win group (+600)
• Italy to advance (+200)

Don't bet the two of these together, of course, since the only way they both happen is if the United States somehow fails to advance. That isn't going to happen, but I also see very little value in a -800 bet for the Americans to top the group or a -10000 bet for them to advance. Still, both of these bets seem reasonably on an individual level.

Mexico and Italy square off in the final game of this pool, which will likely determine which country advances to the quarterfinals alongside the United States. If I'm Italy manager Francisco Cervelli, I'd effectively concede the game against the Americans the day prior, saving all my best pitchers to try to beat Mexico. If you think an Italian team led by Vinnie Pasquantino, Kyle Teel and Jac Caglianone has a greater than one-in-three chance at beating Mexico in a one-off game, betting them to advance at +200 makes sense.

On the other hand, if you feel confident in Mexico winning that game, betting on them to top the group is a much more appealing bet than taking them at -330 just to advance. While they'll certainly be big underdogs in their game against the United States, anything can happen in a single game of baseball, and it's not hard to envision the likes of Randy Arozarena, Jarren Duran and Alejandro Kirk inspiring a rally or two against elite American pitchers who are still in spring training mode, leading Mexico to an upset.

Odds to Win 2026 WBC Pool C

Location: Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan

Here we have another lopsided group where the host nation is again the clear favorite. We also have a group in which the "Players with MLB Experience" column is relatively useless. Japan's national league, NPB, is strong enough that plenty of players who could be at least fringe MLB players choose to stay home, and even some players who could be above-average MLB regulars do the same thing. American fans might not know the likes of Teruaki Sato, Shota Morishita or Shugo Maki, and they're only just beginning to become aware of Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, but the overall talent level of this team is as high as any country in the tournament outside of the United States and possibly the Dominican Republic.

That column is arguably pretty useless when it comes to South Korea and Taiwan, as well, as the KBO in Korea and CPBL in Taiwan are both strong enough that players who are likely to be no more than fringe MLB players tend to choose to stay home. Unlike Japan, though, it's hard to make the case that the entire rosters of those two countries would have a shot at even the back end of an MLB roster, as while NPB is considered approximately Triple-A level or a bit above, KBO sits closer to Double-A and the CPBL is considered no better than High-A. Still, both countries likely possess more MLB-caliber talent than Australia, with Czechia's team full of mostly semi-pro players trailing far behind.

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool C 

• South Korea to win group (+800)
• South Korea to advance (+110)

As with Pool B, the odds on the clear favorites (Japan) simply aren't attractive enough given the variance inherent in small-sample baseball. Instead, these two bets on South Korea look like the most appealing. While South Korea could certainly drop a game to Australia (which happened in 2023) or Taiwan and fail to advance, there's comfortably more talent on this Korean roster than there is on any other squad except Japan, so seeing them with less than a 50 percent chance to advance according to the odds doesn't seem right.

Some math on why South Korea to win the group at +800 looks appealing: those odds translate to an 11.1 percent chance, and if you give Korea a roughly 50 percent chance to beat all the other teams in the group (which seems reasonable), that means they only have to beat Japan two out of nine times in a heads-up game for these odds to be correct. While Japan did humiliate Korea by a 13-4 score when these teams met in 2023, Japan merely has a 5-4 all-time lead between the two countries over their nine total matchups in the World Baseball classic. If you think South Korea has even a one-in-four chance at winning a one-off meeting between the two countries, betting on them to win the group at +800 makes sense.

Odds to Win 2026 WBC Pool D

Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, United States

This looks like easily the strongest group on paper. Venezuela is by far the strongest No. 2 seed in any of these pools, with a deep squad consisting almost entirely of MLB players led by a long list of genuine star talent, including Ronald Acuna Jr., Jackson Chourio and Salvador Perez, just to name a few. Meanwhile, both the Netherlands and Israel have decent cores of MLB-caliber players and have experience making noise in this tournament. If either had been lucky enough to be placed in Pool A, they'd have a legitimate shot at winning it.

The depth of this pool is bad news for Nicaragua, who will face an uphill battle just to secure their first ever WBC victory, and it's also bad luck for the Dominican Republic, who will face a much tougher task just to get out of the group than fellow favorites Japan and the United States. The Dominican team is incredibly deep, joining the USA as the only roster which consists exclusively of players with MLB experience, and it's loaded with so many stars that center fielder Julio Rodriguez has been batting all the way down in seventh in the team's recent warm-up games. Recent tournaments haven't gone the Dominican Republic's way, however, as they've failed to reach the semifinals of the last two editions and were knocked out in Pool play last time after falling to both Venezuela and Puerto Rico.

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool D 

• Dominican Republic to win group (-160)
• Israel to advance (+2000)

I'll admit to being pretty torn about the first bet listed here and strongly considered Venezuela to win the group at +150 instead. If you assume both Venezuela and the Dominican Republic will roll over the other three teams in the group, the group winner odds suggest the Dominican Republic will be roughly 60-40 favorites in the head-to-head matchup between the two countries, the game which will likely determine the group winner. That doesn't seem unreasonable, as while the Dominican Republic does have a 3-1 edge in previous World Baseball Classic games between the two teams, Venezuela did pull off the upset in the previous tournament and has a lineup that doesn't look a whole lot worse than their rivals'.

The reason I've gone with the Dominican Republic to top the group is that I don't assume the two teams will roll over the rest of the group, however. Where the Dominican Republic has the big edge over Venezuela is in their pitching depth. Venezuela's gets pretty dicey after Ranger Suarez and closer Daniel Palencia — is their third-best pitcher Angel Zerpa? Eduardo Rodriguez? Jose Butto? The Dominican Republic, meanwhile, has a much better staff, with Cristopher Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Brayan Bello and Luis Severino in the rotation and a deep bullpen featuring Abner Uribe, Seranthony Dominguez, Carlos Estevez, Dennis Santana and Camilo Doval. That means the Dominican team can feel very confident in its pitching for all four group-stage games, whereas Venezuela will put itself at risk of an upset if it saves all its best arms for the key game against the group favorites. 

If an upset is to occur, Israel is my pick to be the one to pull it off. While there isn't a lot of starpower on Team Israel — their best players are probably Harrison Bader, Spencer Horwitz and Dean Kremer — they have the ability to field a lineup consistently mostly of players who have at least some major-league experience and enough pitchers who meet that threshold as well. Their odds to advance or win the group should be much better than Nicaragua's and should arguably be just as good as the Netherlands', as the Dutch golden generation of Ozzie Albies, Xander Bogaerts, Didi Gregorius and Kenley Jansen isn't getting any younger and hasn't been supplemented by much up-and-coming MLB talent other than Ceddanne Rafaela.

Best Bets to Win the 2026 World Baseball Classic

Are the United States a good bet to win the WBC?

We have to answer this question before assessing the rest of the candidates. It's very hard to look up and down the American roster and consider any other team to win it all. You could split the team in half and both halves would arguably still be the favorites.

However, it comes down to simple math and the variance of single-elimination baseball. The United States' -110 odds to win the whole tournament translate to a 52.4 percent chance. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume the Americans have a 100 percent chance of qualifying from their pool. They'll still have to win three single-elimination games in a row to take home the title. 

If you give the Americans an 80.6 percent chance to win each of those single-elimination games — in other words, if you make them -415 favorites in all three — that translates to the same 52.4 percent chance of winning it all. As incredible as the American roster is, an 80.6 percent chance to win a single game of baseball is a stretch, especially when at least one or two of those games will be against a team as talented as Japan, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela.

The Americans managed to lose against both Mexico and Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and they lost against both the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico in the 2017 tournament. Even with an upgraded pitching staff this time around, an 80 percent chance in three consecutive knockout games simply seems like a bridge too far, and therefore I cannot recommend a bet on the United States to win it all, even if they're justifiably the clear favorites.

Best Bets to Win the World Baseball Classic

Instead, consider one of these three teams:

Japan (+350): The odds on the three-time champions seem reasonable enough, as Japan has a few advantages over the other favorites. First, they have arguably the easiest pool in the tournament, made even easier by the fact that they'll play their pool games in front of their home fans. Second, the fact that the MLB stars on the other contending teams have never faced most of Japan's pitchers should help the Japanese staff (though admittedly the same dynamic could hurt the team's hitters). 

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there's the fact that the Japanese team demonstrably takes international baseball more seriously than many other teams in this tournament, particularly the Americans. If the 2026 WBC final comes down to a rematch between a Japanese team playing in the most important game of their lives and an American team that's just looking for a more fun way to spend spring training, that gives an edge to Japan.

Dominican Republic (+400): This Dominican team is simply too talented to ignore. The lineup is arguably just as star-studded as that of Team USA — a 3/4/5 of Juan Soto/Vladimir Guerrero Jr./Manny Machado is just as terrifying to face as a 3/4/5 of Aaron Judge/Kyle Schwarber/Alex Bregman, if not more — and the Dominican pitching staff is one of the deepest in the tournament. Yes, the Dominican Republic is coming off a pair of sub-par tournaments, but I don't want to place too much stock in what a different collection of players did three years ago in 2023 or nine years ago in 2017. 

The only thing that gives me pause about betting on the Dominicans to win it all at this price is the fact that it's much easier to see them getting bounced in pool play than it is to envision the same thing happening to USA or Japan, as the rest of their group is much stronger than what the US and Japan will have to contend with.

Mexico (+2200): I was very tempted to write up Venezuela (+900) as the third team here, as their deep and talented roster gives them a real chance to take home their first title, but ultimately, the fear that they could get knocked out early in a deep Pool D has me looking elsewhere. It should be easier for Mexico to get past Italy than it will be for Venezuela to hold off both Israel and the Netherlands. And while I'd take the Venezuelan roster over the Mexican squad straight up, I don't agree with the odds, which give Venezuela more than twice as much of a chance as Mexico to win it all. 

A lack of pitching depth will probably sink Mexico eventually, but the core of that unit looks comparable to Venezuela's, and a lineup which has both star talent and plenty of MLB depth could certainly make some noise over the course of a short, knockout tournament. Mexico was just a half-inning away from reach the finals in 2023 before Japan scored a pair of runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to win 6-5 in the semifinals, and it's not a stretch to say that Mexico could go just a bit further this time around.