We're teed up for a very compact three-game main slate Saturday night, an interesting dynamic that provides us with a unique challenge as DFS players. The injury report is thankfully light, but we're still dealing with a narrow player pool that will require discernment for both elite and value plays.
Slate Overview
For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, March 14 at 11:45 a.m. EDT:
- Denver Nuggets (-3) at Los Angeles Lakers (O/U: 244.5)
- Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-3.5) (O/U: 236.5)
- Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (-13.5) (O/U: 231.5)
We're fortunate from a betting-metrics perspective Saturday, as two-thirds of the small slate has a very favorable combination of point spread and projected total. That could make the Kings-Clippers matchup an interesting spot to differentiate with in tournaments, but there will certainly be a wide range of outcomes there in terms of which players could step to the forefront if there is indeed a blowout.
Injury Situations to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
Tyler Herro, MIA (quadriceps): QUESTIONABLE
If Herro can't suit up, Pelle Larsson and Myron Gardner could see the majority of minutes at shooting guard.
Norman Powell, MIA (groin): QUESTIONABLE
If Powell remains sidelined, Kasparas Jakucionis may remain on the first unit, while the rest of the starting five should continue to see a boost in usage.
Other notable injuries:
Franz Wagner, ORL (ankle): OUT
Andrew Wiggins, MIA (toe): OUT
Keegan Murray, SAC (ankle): OUT
John Collins, LAC (neck): OUT
Malik Monk, SAC (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Darius Garland, LAC (toe): PROBABLE
Jamal Murray, DEN (ankle): PROBABLE
Aaron Gordon, DEN (hamstring): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have three players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($12,800), Luka Doncic ($12,500) and Kawhi Leonard ($10,200).
Jokic has put up three straight triple-doubles while scoring 62.9 to 85 FD points in those contests, pushing his season average to 62.6 FD points. He also scored 58.9 FD points in his most recent game against the Lakers on March 5.
Doncic has scored over 65 FD points in three of his last four games, including 87.5 over 36 minutes against the Bulls last time out, and he scored 59.7 FD points against the Nuggets in that March 5 contest.
Leonard is averaging 46.7 FD points for the season and has been under 43 FD points just once in his last seven games.
Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Paolo Banchero, ORL ($9,700)
Banchero just saw a run of three straight 42+ FD-point performances snapped, but he'll have a central role in a very appealing game environment Saturday.
Jamal Murray, DEN ($9,000)
Murray is fully expected to continue playing through his ankle injury and has eclipsed 40 FD points in three straight.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,700)
Adebayo was back down to 34.5 FD points on Thursday after his historic Wednesday performance, but he'll undoubtedly remain very popular Saturday in a solid matchup.
Austin Reaves, LAL ($8,300)
Reaves has stepped up with scores of 46.5 to 50.4 FD points in the last three games, which should ensure a high roster rate Saturday.
Desmond Bane, ORL ($7,900)
Bane has eclipsed 40 FD points in four straight, which should ensure his popularity Saturday.
Key Values
DeMar DeRozan, SAC at LAC ($6,000)
DeRozan could be one of those players from the Kings-Clippers game that could be a sneaky tournament option, given his combination of salary and upside. The talented veteran remains mired in the malaise of Sacramento's lost season, but DeRozan is still showing occasional flashes of his old self and is averaging 29.3 FD points across 28.1 minutes per game over his last 11 contests. That sample includes a 39-point eruption against the Hornets his last time out Wednesday, a performance that netted 57.8 FD points. DeRozan has delivered over a 5x return on his current salary in 35 games this season, making him a viable tournament consideration despite the projected lopsided outcome in the Clippers' favor.
Wendell Carter, ORL at MIA ($5,300)
Carter has been on an upswing coming into Saturday, averaging 30.9 FD points over his last nine games on averages of 13.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 60.3 percent shooting. The veteran big man has four double-doubles in that span alone, along with five tallies of greater than 30 FD points. The opposing Heat have conceded tallies of 24.1 and 36.5 FD points to Carter in two of the four games against the Magic this season as well, and Miami checks in allowing the 10th-highest offensive efficiency rating to centers (33.1), along with 51.9 FD points per game to the position in the last seven.
Tim Hardaway, DEN at LAL ($4,100)
Hardaway is always in play for tournaments given his ability to pile up points in a hurry, and even more so in a game with a projected total well north of 240 points and a tight spread like Saturday's. The veteran sharpshooter's production is undeniably unpredictable, but over his last 11 games, Hardaway does have five tallies of more than 21 FD points, including 32.4 in a tough matchup against the Thunder three games ago. He's also shooting a blistering 43.9 percent from behind the arc during the entirety of that span, and he has one 27.4 FD-point effort against the Lakers in two meetings this season. The Lakers have flashed much better perimeter defense at home as compared to the road, but they are surrendering elevated 47.8 percent shooting overall to second-unit players on the season.
