After a momentous 10-game return to play Thursday, the NBA follows up with a seven-game main slate Friday night that is partly marked by several big-name absences that have persisted through the All-Star break. As customary, those injuries create opportunity for other players on those superstars' teams, affording us plenty of value plays to consider.
Slate Overview
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Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Friday, Feb. 20 at 12:00 a.m. EST:
Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5) (O/U: 238.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) at Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 233.5)
Indiana Pacers (-2) at Washington Wizards (O/U: 231.5)
Miami Heat (-3.5) at Atlanta Hawks (O/U: 242.5)
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-13) (O/U: 237.5)
Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-16.5) (O/U: 210.5)
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) (O/U: 222.5)
Friday's betting metrics paint a fairly pretty picture for DFS outside of the two projected lopsided contests, as there are four projected totals north of 230 points, including the slate-high 242.5 tally attached to the Heat-Hawks game. Then, the five spreads of 5.5 points or less help make up for the two potential blowout scenarios.
Injury Situations to Monitor
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (abdomen): OUT
In Gilgeous-Alexander's ongoing absence, Nikola Topic, Isaiah Joe and Jared McCain could all see point guard minutes, while the rest of the starting five will see plenty of additional usage.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (calf): OUT
In Antetokounmpo's ongoing absence, Bobby Portis or Ousmane Dieng culd draw a start at power forward, while the likes of Kevin Porter and Ryan Rollins should be due for big bumps in usage.
Cooper Flagg, DAL (foot): OUT
In Flagg's continued absence, Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall could handle most of the small forward minutes, while Brandon Williams and P.J. Washington should benefit from extra usage.
Pascal Siakam, IND (personal): OUT
In Siakam's second straight absence, Ben Sheppard could remain on the first unit, while Jarace Walker could once again benefit from additional rebounding opportunities.
Trey Murphy, NOP (shoulder): DOUBTFUL
In Murphy's likely absence, Bryce McGowens and Jeremiah Fears should see a bulk of shooting guard minutes, and Zion Williamson and Saddiq Bey will be in position to benefit from usage bumps.
Other notable injuries:
Trae Young, WAS (knee): OUT
Alex Sarr, WAS (hamstring): OUT
Keyonte George, UTA (ankle): OUT
Jalen Williams, OKC (hamstring): OUT
Ty Jerome, MEM (calf): OUT
Santi Aldama, MEM (knee): OUT
Cedric Coward, MEM (knee): OUT
Scotty Pippen, MEM (toe): OUT
Jusuf Nurkic, UTA (nose): OUT
Miles Bridges, CHA (suspension): OUT
Coby White, CHA (calf): OUT
Nic Claxton, BKN (ankle): OUT
Myles Turner, MIL (calf): OUT
Norman Powell, MIA (back): QUESTIONABLE
Tyler Herro, MIA (ribs): PROBABLE
Elite Players
We have two players with five-figure salaries that have a chance to play on Friday's slate – Jalen Johnson ($11,300) and Anthony Edwards ($10,000).
Johnson commemorated his return to action Thursday by providing 59.5 FD points against the 76ers, and he now faces a Heat squad he posted 56.3 FD points against in their most recent meeting on Feb. 3.
Edwards eclipsed 51 FD points in four of the last five games before the All-Star break before also taking home the ASG MVP, and he draws a solid matchup against a short-handed Mavericks squad.
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Expected Chalk
Other likely chalk plays include:
Donovan Mitchell, CLE ($9,800)
Mitchell logged just 20 minutes in the blowout win over the Nets on Thursday, but he exceeded 50 FD points in two of the three games prior to the All-Star break and should be popular in what projects as a more competitive matchup against the Hornets.
Kevin Porter, MIL ($9,300)
Porter exceeded 43 FD points in four of the five games prior to the All-Star break and will continue to operate without Giannis Antetokounmpo on Friday, factors that should ensure he's in plenty of lineups.
James Harden, CLE ($9,100)
Harden delivered 42.5 FD points against the Nets on Thursday and already looks like an excellent fit in Cleveland, which should lock in a high roster rate Friday.
Julius Randle, MIN ($8,400)
Randle posted consecutive 52.4 FD-point tallies before the All-Star break, which should ensure his popularity at his salary Friday.
Michael Porter, BKN ($8,200)
Porter had 26 FD points in only 20 minutes during Thursday's lopsided loss to the Cavs, and he carries well in excess of the salary he carries.
Key Values
CJ McCollum, ATL vs. MIA ($6,100)
McCollum hit the ground running in Thursday's return to play with 39.7 FD points across 30 minutes against the 76ers, and he delivered 31.8 FD points against the Heat in his most recent time facing Miami on Feb. 3. The veteran guard has been an excellent fit on the Hawks' second unit, having come into Thursday averaging 31 FD points across 28.7 minutes in the prior 15 contests. The Heat also plays at an NBA-high pace of 107.4 possessions per road game, and Miami is surrendering the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating to second-unit players (47.5) while also giving up a markedly higher three-point percentage on the road (36.1) than at home (33.3).
Naz Reid, MIN vs. DAL ($6,000)
Reid is enjoying another productive all-around season off the Timberwolves' bench, and went into the All-Star break averaging 32.3 FD points via 13.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.1 blocks over the previous 10 games. The floor-spacing big man shot a solid 46.4 percent in that stretch as well, and the game that kick-started that stretch was a 45.1 FD-point tally over 28 minutes against these same Mavericks on Jan. 28. Dallas has struggled preventing frontcourt production, particularly rebounding, this season, and will be short-handed once again Friday. The Mavs are also giving up the eighth-highest offensive efficiency rating to second-unit players (46.2), and Dallas has allowed the third-most total rebounds per game on the season (56.1).
GG Jackson, MEM vs. UTA ($5,600)
Jackson went into the All-Star break with a head of steam, posting 33.5 FD points over 28 minutes against the Nuggets on Feb. 11. It was Jackson's fourth tally of greater than 31 FD points in the last seven games before the pause in play, a byproduct of expanded opportunity afforded to the third-year forward by the trade of Jaren Jackson to the Jazz. Additionally, the ongoing absences of Ja Morant (elbow) and Santi Aldama (knee) is a bonus, and Friday, Jackson will also take the floor without Scotty Pippen, Ty Jerome and Cedric Coward due to their respective toe, calf and knee injuries. Jackson is averaging 35.4 FD points per 36 minutes with that quintet of teammates off the floor, and he's also facing a Jazz squad he posted 33.3 FD points against during a Dec. 23 spot start. Additionally, Utah is conceding the fifth-most FD points per game to power forwards in the last 15 contests as well (49.2), and the Jazz also surrender an NBA-high 15.3 made three-pointers per road game for the season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Kel'el Ware, MIA at ATL ($5,700); Cam Spencer, MEM vs. UTA ($5,300)
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