With the 2025–26 college basketball season past its midway point, the race for the NCAA Tournament's four No. 1 seeds is already taking shape, even if it still feels early. While Selection Sunday is still a couple months away, the NCAA selection committee consistently relies on the same resume indicators when building the top seed lines.
Understanding what actually matters, from Quad 1 wins to road performance and Strength of Schedule, is critical when evaluating early bracketology projections. Below, I'll break down the specific criteria the committee values most when assigning No. 1 seeds, then apply that framework to the teams currently tracking toward the top line in my 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology.
For a live, updated look at where these teams currently sit, check out our full 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology on RotoWire.
Selection Committee Criteria for No. 1 Seeds
- Overall Record & Strength of Schedule
Overall record still forms the foundation of every 1-seed resume. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is the building block that makes wins and losses meaningful. Miami (OH) opened its season 20-0, yet its only Top 100 KenPom win was against Akron. Three of its wins are against non-Division 1 teams. Despite being 20-0, the RedHawks are unlikely to be a single-digit seed.
- Quality Wins (Quad 1 & Quad 2)
Many of these factors overlap, as quality wins often reflect Strength of Schedule. Nebraska opened its season 19-0 with wins against Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State and Indiana. Miami (OH) has six Q2 and Q3 wins, while Indiana has six Q1 wins.
- Road & Neutral Court Performances
Five of Nebraska's Q1 wins came on road or neutral sites. It's easier to get Q1 wins on the road given the range of opponent. A Q1 is qualified by being against a team ranked 1-30 in NET at home, 1-50 on a neutral and 1-75 on the road. Playing the 30th best team in the country at home is equivalent to playing the 75th best team on the road, or at least that's how the Quadrant system is built.
- Bad Losses & Resume Holes
If you don't want to lose any resume arguments, you don't want Q3 or Q4 losses. St. John's was a preseason No. 5 team in the AP Poll. Already with a Q3 loss at home to Providence, the Red Storm face an uphill battle to get a 4-seed or higher.
- NET Rankings
The NCAA's sorting tool, the NET Rankings, is updated on a daily basis. While the committee doesn't only use these, they are used when comparing teams. Instead of using systems like KenPom or BPI, the NCAA built their own tool so they didn't have to reference other things.
Those factors form the backbone of my current 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology.
Current March Madness No. 1 Seed Predictions
Teams Currently Projected as No. 1 Seeds
Metrics prior to games on Thursday, Jan. 22
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Arizona: NET 3, 18-0 Overall
Arizona was the No. 13 team in the preseason AP Poll, but no one expected the Wildcats to be undefeated at this point or a clear 1-seed. While they returned players like Jaden Bradley and Tobe Awaka, it's been the freshmen that has put them on a different level led by Brayden Burries and Koa Peat.
Already with neutral or road wins against Florida, UConn and Alabama, it may take multiple home losses for the Wildcats to fall off the 1-seed line. Even if they lose on the road to BYU, Kansas and Houston, it likely won't hurt any of their underlying metrics.
Michigan: NET 1, 17-1 Overall
It's been somewhat of a weird season for the Wolverines. They almost lost to Wake Forest and TCU back in November, but then went on an unprecedented run that included scoring 100 points in six of seven games and 10 straight 18-plus-point wins.
Recently, it hasn't been as easy. They barely won at Penn State and then Wisconsin stole one in Ann Arbor. Unlike Arizona, their minor inconsistencies suggest more losses could be on the way. Given the high level of competition in the Big Ten and that they face Duke in late February, there's no guarantee Michigan ends as a 1-seed.
Duke: NET 2, 17-1 Overall
Duke is in a similar spot to UConn in that playing in a weaker conference means an easier chance to have fewer losses by season's end. Playing in the ACC, the Blue Devils most difficult remaining conference games are on the road at UNC and N.C. State. If they didn't play Michigan, there would be some doubts about their late season Strength of Schedule.
Of course, they already have wins against Kansas, Arkansas, Florida, Michigan State and Louisville.
Connecticut: NET 7, 18-1 Overall
The metrics aren't as kind to UConn, but playing in the Big East means it'll be much harder to lose games. Assuming the Huskies win every game against mediocre competition, they maybe only have two more chances for losses in the regular season in road games against St. John's and Villanova. Even then, they could be favored in both of those games.
At 18-1 with a likelihood of three or fewer losses for the season, UConn seems primed for a 1-seed.
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NCAAM Basketball Teams Just Outside the 1-Seed Line
Houston: NET 10, 17-1 Overall
The Cougars are inevitable. They're aiming for their fourth-straight season as a 1-seed. Similar to last season, they started a bit slow and lost to Tennessee while barely beating Syracuse and Notre Dame.
In Big 12 play, they've had no problems, something that could change. But if they can get road wins against Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa State or Kansas, or beat Arizona at home, a 1-seed is in play. Then again, that's a ridiculous schedule and there's a chance they finish closer to five losses.
Gonzaga: NET 4, 20-1 Overall
Gonzaga faces a steep uphill climb to a 1-seed given its remaining schedule, but there's a chance if its metrics continue to shoot up against the WCC, it's in play. The Bulldogs had a decent non-conference schedule, but Oklahoma, Creighton, Kentucky and UCLA have all struggled this season, and Alabama is always hit or miss. Against the best team they played, they lost by 40 points to Michigan.
Iowa State: NET 6, 17-2 Overall
Similar to Houston, it's going to be difficult for Iowa State to have fewer than five losses. A 23-point win at Purdue is incredible, but the Cyclones looked poor at Kansas and Cincinnati in recent losses. Unless they play at their peak in every game, losses are expected at BYU and Arizona. Their schedule is easier than Houston's, but to have a chance at a 1-seed, home wins against Kansas, Houston and Texas Tech are needed.
Purdue: NET 5, 17-2 Overall
This feels like a season in which you can't lose to a team like UCLA and still expect a chance at a 1-seed. The Boilermakers could win the rest of their games and the Big Ten tournament, but that's extremely unlikely given their remaining schedule that includes Nebraska and Iowa on the road, and Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State at home.
The margins between the top teams are thin, and small resume swings can reshuffle the 1-seed line quickly.
For a live, updated look at how these teams are currently projected, along with full seed-by-seed breakdowns, check out RotoWire's complete 2026 NCAA Tournament bracketology.
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