Conference season is in full swing, as important matchups all across the country are lined up throughout the day. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off later in the day.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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St. John's 
at Creighton 
The Red Storm isn't the best shooting team, but it often relies on second-chance opportunities and free throws for offensive production. Free throws account for 24 percent of St. John's total points this season, the nation's 46th-highest mark. This is all the more noteworthy, given that it ranks outside the top 200 teams in the percentage of total points from field goal attempts. The extensive reliance on free throws isn't necessarily a problem, but it becomes a concern when facing a team like Creighton that rarely sends opponents to the line.
The Bluejays have the third-lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams, and if this standing holds through the end of the year, it would be Creighton's fifth consecutive season finishing in the top four of the nation in lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed. Clearly, the lack of opposing free-throw attempts is no accident and is entirely by design.
At the other end of the court, the Johnnies have excellent defensive efficiency numbers throughout the season, but they don't look as sharp when you zoom in on their performances against conference opponents. During league play, the Red Storm's defense ranks sixth in adjusted efficiency and seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed, which are relatively weak considering it has yet to play a Big East opponent with a winning conference record.
Creighton, meanwhile, has already played two, narrowly losing a road game to Seton Hall (56-54) before winning at Villanova (76-72). Offensively, the Bluejays are in mid-season form. They boast the highest effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage among Big East teams during conference play, and they also rank third in adjusted efficiency.
It's also worth noting that Creighton won last year's game in Omaha, 57-56. While these two teams are not identical to last year's, they are playing at similar levels and have significant roster continuity.
St. John's has enough talent to win, obviously, but Creighton appears to have the upper hand in this matchup. I'm going with the Bluejays.
College Basketball Best Bet: Creighton -1
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Arizona 
at TCU 
The Horned Frogs narrowly lost a home game to Michigan in early November (67-63) and have been trending upward ever since. TCU has won nine of its last 11 games, including wins against Florida, Wisconsin, and Baylor. The only two losses in that span were overtime games against Notre Dame and Kansas (at Allen Fieldhouse). The latter was particularly unlucky, as the Horned Frogs held a nine-point lead with 1:01 remaining in regulation, giving them a 98 percent chance of winning, per KenPom.
In any event, the key to TCU's success has been its defense, which ranks in the top 25 nationally in adjusted efficiency and turnover percentage. It's also strong on the glass and in the paint, ranking 38th in defensive rebounding and 56th in two-point field goal percentage allowed, holding opponents to 47 percent.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, are on track for a top seed come March, if not the top seed, and it's easy to see why. It's hard to find many, if any, cracks in their game. One small flaw is that they don't handle the ball as well as other top teams, ranking outside the top 120 in turnovers. As noted above, TCU can exploit this.
Arizona is a tough team to bet against. It hasn't played a game with a margin under 19 points since its four-point win at Connecticut back on November 19. That said, TCU is Arizona's second-toughest opponent since its close call at UConn, with the only tougher opponent being Alabama, which held a two-point halftime lead against Arizona before collapsing in the second half.
Given the location of Saturday's game and the large spread, I like our chances of TCU forcing Arizona to work a bit harder than usual. I'm taking the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: TCU +7.5
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Utah State 
at Boise State 
The weak link in this matchup is Boise State's offensive attack, which has been somewhat two-dimensional, overly reliant on three-pointers and free throws. This might pose a serious concern in certain matchups, but coincidentally, Saturday's opponent has a severe problem with fouling. Utah State's defense has been decent throughout the season, but its biggest problem is its tendency to commit fouls, placing it among the 100 worst teams in this category. If this habit continues, which it most likely will, it will greatly benefit the home team. Boise State ranks in the top 40 teams in free-throw attempt rate and has scored over a quarter of its total points from the charity stripe, the nation's 18th-highest mark.
At the other end of the court, Utah State has proven to be a dangerous offensive team, ranking 25th in adjusted efficiency, though it likely won't have all of its usual tricks on Saturday. The Aggies are typically excellent at collecting offensive rebounds, ranking in the top 30, but Boise State has the second-highest defensive rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, thereby neutralizing one of Utah State's most important strengths. Overall, the Broncos' defense has been tough to crack throughout the season, with an adjusted efficiency rating that ranks among the top 30 nationally.
One other note to keep in mind when comparing the raw stats of these two teams, Boise State has played a significantly more challenging schedule, one that ranks 11th-most difficult among all D-1 teams, per KenPom. Along the way, the Broncos have earned victories over Butler (on the road), Saint Mary's, and New Mexico, all of which qualify as quality wins, per KenPom. Utah State, on the other hand, has a nice record at 13-1, but its schedule ranks 144th in difficulty and has recorded just one quality win all season, a neutral-site win against VCU in early November. The Aggies have had just one other opportunity for a quality win, and they suffered a 13-point loss at South Florida.
All things considered, my money's on the home team in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State +1.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Creighton -1
- TCU +7.5
- Boise State +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
