College Football Best Bets: Oregon vs Indiana
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We're on to Week 7, and it's another giant game in the Big Ten Conference. A few years ago, who would ever have thought the Oregon Ducks hosting the Indiana Hoosiers in October would be a conference game with league championship and playoff implications?
The No. 7 Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) and No. 3 Ducks (5-0, 2-0) are two of three teams in the Big Ten sitting with an overall unblemished record, as No. 1 Ohio State is the other. Michigan is 2-0 inside the league, too, but it has a loss outside of the conference.
Indiana vs Oregon Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Indiana +7.5 (-115, Caesars Sportsbook); Oregon -7.5 (+105, ESPN Bet)
Total: Over 54.5 (-118, DraftKings); Under 55.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Moneyline: Indiana +245 (DraftKings); Oregon -270 (FanDuel)
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Indiana vs Oregon Betting Picks for Week 7
Both teams have already passed major early-season tests. After a bit of a joke of a non-conference schedule, with wins over Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State, we didn't know if the Hoosiers were for real.
The Hoosiers certainly put all doubt aside in a 63-10 romp over Illinois on Sept. 20 in a battle of ranked teams, easily covering as a 7-point favorite. Indiana also went to Iowa two weeks ago and topped the Hawkeyes 20-15 at Kinnick Stadium, though it failed to cover as a 9-point favorite, slapping the brakes on a 3-0 against the spread (ATS) run. An Under against Iowa also halted a 3-game Over streak.
The Ducks beat a very good FCS Montana State team in the opener, 59-13, and they routed Oklahoma State 69-3 in Eugene. Oregon went to Northwestern and won 34-14 on Sept. 13 in the league opener, the only time it has failed to cover this season. It pushed at most shops in a rivalry game win over Oregon State on Sept. 20, and the Ducks won in double overtime at Penn State on Sept. 27 last time out, 30-24. The Over has a slight 3-2 edge through five games.
Oregon has scored 30 or more points in every game to date, while allowing 14 or fewer points in four of five games. At Autzen Stadium, the Ducks have allowed just 7.7 points per game (PPG), while going 2-0-1 ATS.
Indiana's lone road game was in Iowa last time out, failing to cover as the Under cashed. The Hoosiers' defense, like the Ducks, figures to face their biggest tests to date. Indiana has allowed 15 or fewer points in all five games this season, as the defense isn't talked about as much as QB Fernando Mendoza and the offense. But, IU ranks No. 5 in the country with just 221.4 total yards allowed, and 133.4 passing yards per game.
Oregon QB Dante Moore figures to put a dent into those numbers, as the Ducks rank 11th in the country with 503.8 total yards per game, while also running for 239.4 yards per outing, checking in 12th in the nation. It has posted 46.6 PPG, but that's propped up by some early-season routs against overwhelmed non-conference teams. RB Jayden Limar leads the team with 215 rushing yards and three TDs, while short-yardage back Jordon Davison has six scores.
The Ducks defense is often overlooked, too. It has allowed just 238.2 total yards (7th), 123.4 passing yards (3rd) and 12.2 PPG (6th) this season.
This game, which can be viewed or streamed on CBS at 3:30 p.m. ET, figures to feature a lot of offense. While both teams have shown out on defense, it's mostly against so-so offenses. We should be in for some fireworks on Saturday, and the total seems a bit low.
Indiana vs Oregon Expert Pick: Over 54.5 (-118 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Indiana vs Oregon Predictions for Week 7
While I have a lot more conviction about the total, all eyes will be on Indiana catching the points. The line opened with Oregon laying 9.5 points at most shops, and bettors quickly gobbled that up. If you were one of the lucky ones to jump on that, congrats.
An overwhelming number of bettors are eschewing the points and looking directly at the moneyline, with a majority of bets and money going on the Ducks. That's a little foolish, though, as Oregon will cost you between 2 1/2 and three times your potential return. Playing the ML on Oregon is a lot of risk, and not much reward.
As far as the spread is concerned, it's about 50-50, especially since so many bettors jumped on Indiana early on, moving the line two points. However, a rush of money has come in on Oregon, and the nearly two-thirds of all money is on the Ducks at the time of publishing.
You can't go back in time, but it would be nice to have a little extra wiggle room. Still, I think Indiana has the potential on offense, as well as on defense, when needing a big stop, to keep this game within one score. Remember, this isn't Indiana's first trip to the rodeo, as Curt Cignetti took it to the playoffs last season.
It is hard to forget that Indiana went to Ohio State late last year and was blown out 38-15, and it lost at Notre Dame 27-17 in the playoffs, in a pair of marquee games. But, Indiana also exceeded expectations by miles with the win over Illinois. I think this is a different team than even last year, as it has more of a belief in itself than ever last season.
