College Capper: Free College Football Picks this Week
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Chris' Picks
Holy heck, are we really in Week 7 already? Time flies when you're having fun, and even when you're not, as my picks just can't catch fire. Some line movement into the weekend had my posted play on Notre Dame cover by half a point, but readers may lose if placed Saturday. Those are the breaks, I suppose. That's three straight winning weeks by the skin of my teeth. I'm assuming that means we'll be 5-0 or 0-5 by Saturday evening. Three big favorites, one dog, and an over sounds like a great recipe!
Cincinnati (-10.5) vs. UCF
The Knights aren't what we were accustomed to; they've beaten UNC, Jacksonville State and North Carolina A&T while losing in conference to Kansas and Kansas State by a combined 21 points, which puts that average right at this number. They have no quarterback and, as a result, can't pass, having just four touchdown tosses to date. They bring the nation's 32nd-ranked rushing attack on the road to face the nation's 41st-ranked run defense. If they can't pass successfully, how do they compete? UCF has scored 26, 21, 21, and 13 points in the last four matchups. 34-21 Saturday gets us right at the total and a cover, and the Bearcats' rushing attack should feast, which burns clock and limits their offensive chances
Over 43.5 
Oklahoma vs. 
Texas
Weird things happen in rivalry games, so I'm going to back some scoring for no reason whatsoever. Arch Manning is struggling, John Mateer probably isn't playing, and both defenses are elite. But this number was available in the preseason at 56.5, so look at this massive discount simply on form. I simply believe both teams will run some trick plays and take shots more than usual. Last year was just the second time since 2009 that the Red River rivalry went under this mark, and it was because Oklahoma scored three points. Surely, both reach 20 points, and someone has to win.
Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn
This feels like a trap; Auburn is off a bye, at home, and desperate for a win, and it's a pseudo in-state rivalry game with Auburn just across the Georgia line. But Auburn simply can't score, posting 27 total points in two SEC games. They seemingly don't trust QB Jackson Arnold, allowing him to just throw jump balls to Cam Coleman while they hope the run game shines throughout. The Tigers average 173.2 ypg through the air and have one or no TD passes in four of five. Georgia has won eight straight in this rivalry, all by at least a touchdown. They'll be content to play defense, wait for opportunities and slowly stretch this out.
Clemson (-14) at Boston College
Another obvious trap spot that I'm biting on. Clemson finally looked like itself last week, but that was at UNC, and we're now learning how dysfunctional that program is. A second-straight road game, and this one at night. Yikes. But then it's Boston College, which hasn't beaten an FBS team, lost at lowly Stanford, allowed Cal to travel across the country and win in Chestnut Hill, and lost 48-7 to a Pitt team that haphazardly turned to a true freshman to start. The Eagles are a one-sided offense, averaging 313.4 ypg passing (11th), and 85.0 ypg rushing (131st). Yet they've been held under 200 passing in each of the last two. Clemson continues to right its ship.
Nevada (+7.5) vs. San Diego State
This too looks like a trap, so I'll buck the trend and go with the less obvious side. San Diego State has won three straight; Nevada hasn't beaten an FBS opponent. The Wolfpack can't score, but lets not confuse the Aztecs as an offensive juggernaut, hence the incredibly low 41.5 point total. Two keys I'm hunching on; altitude, as Reno is 4,000 feet higher above sea level than San Diego, and a quarterback change for Nevada. Chubba Purdy has eight INTs and one TD to date. He was yanked last week and Carter Jones at least moved the offense. Nevada has played two home games and allowed 30 points. If they can keep San Diego State around 20, they've got a clear shot at a cover.
Last week: 3-2; Season:14-16
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Greg's Picks
It's never easy backing up a good week, so even though I fell back into that mediocrity trap this past week, I was on the winning side, so we're now four games above sea level on the season.
It was a strange week, but getting that third win sure felt good. The week started with a slim victory by the Georgia Bulldogs, who were ahead all game but never comfortably above the spread. Maryland was an easy win, but it got a little scary late. Maryland was up 20-0 in the second half, only to stall out on offense and eventually lose the game…but by just four points. The final win of the week came on the Purdue over, which hit with ease as well. The first loss was on the Florida under, which didn't have much of a chance with the Gator offense finally showing up. The last loss was on the Gophers, who came out swinging early but failed to score a single point after their first drive.
Over 60.0 
Washington vs. 
Rutgers
I mentioned this past week that Rutgers has turned into an "over" team, and we're going to test that theory this week. This number is pretty high, but has failed to go over 59 points just once this season, and that week they landed right on 59. You wouldn't know it if you watched Washington play Ohio State two weeks ago or the first half against Maryland this past week, but the Huskies can score a lot of points. It helps when you're not facing the Buckeyes or on the road against a decent Maryland team, so getting back home, against a team that's not afraid to get into a shootout, should result in the Huskies getting back to the form that saw them average over 55 points per game in the first three weeks.
UCLA (+8.5) at Michigan State
I know the Bruins have been awful this season, but I'm not sure what the Spartans have done to be over a TD favorite against anyone in the Big Ten. Let's not discount UCLA's win this past week either. There is a non-zero chance that they actually unlocked the offense, which has been a big part of the problem this season. I'm not saying they're on their way to the playoff, but the talent is there, if they found something this past week, the Bruins could be a pain in the side of many Big Ten teams this season.
Maryland (+6.5) vs. Nebraska
I don't quite understand this line; then again, I didn't understand why Washington was favored by this exact amount at Maryland last week, either, and that worked out for me. The fact that Maryland blew a 20-point lead this past week is why the Terps are underdogs this week, but that's actually working in our favor. If they had won this past week, I'd be worried about them getting a big head, but they didn't, and you know they are kicking themselves. Nebraska has played well this season. The 'Huskers beat a good Cincinnati team, and they played Michigan down to the wire, but they haven't done anything that convinces me they are significantly better than they were in the previous year. If they cover this week, it'll be a sign they are truly better, but I doubt that'll happen.
Texas (-1.5) vs. Oklahoma
The Longhorns have fallen victim to expectations this season, but that doesn't mean they are going to lay down the rest of the way. If they weren't so hyped up to start the season, two one-score losses against Ohio State and Florida wouldn't seem so bad. Yes, the offense has struggled, but the defense has played pretty well, and quite honestly, I'm expecting their best effort of the season this week. You know, just like the Gators this past week, they spent the entire week listening to how terrible they were, and they came out on fire against Texas. Now it's the Longhorns' turn to play above expectations. As for Oklahoma, we're unsure if John Mateer will return, and even if he does, his health status is also uncertain. The Sooners are ranked 6th in the country, but their best win to date was over Michigan at home, so we really don't know how good they are at this point, but we'll find out on Saturday.
Over (50.5) 
Purdue at 
Minnesota
Purdue and Illinois flew over the total this past week, and I'm hoping we'll see the same out of the Boilermakers this week. The reason I liked the over this past week was Purdue's inability to stop the pass. Usually, that wouldn't matter much against the Gophers, as they historically have been a run-first team under P.J. Fleck, but this team is built a little differently. They enter this week ranked 102nd in yards per game on the ground and 69th through the air, which is great this week because Purdue's pass defense ranks 104th in the country. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota is 10th in the nation against the run, which won't bother Purdue as the Boilers are 108th on the ground, so they might not even bother trying to run this week.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season 17-13-0
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Jeff's Picks
I thankfully bounced back after a dreadful Week 6 and came tantalizingly close to 4-1. Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and a gutsy Cincinnati call all came through for me, but a strong showing from Florida and lower scoring from Georgia and Alabama cost me my two losses. I have some totals this week that I am considering, and I'm hoping for slightly better luck in that category this time around.
Southern Mississippi (-3.5) @ Georgia Southern (Thursday)
Clay Helton's squad is reeling right now. They have a horrible run defense and will have to take on Braylon Braxton and Jeffry Pittman. Both of them are heavily underrated and have been a headache for the opposition all season. I expect Braxton and Pittman to run all over the Eagles, as the only thing these two teams have in common is a mascot. Southern Miss is much better than its 3-2 record might indicate.
Over 55.5 
Indiana @ 
Oregon
Two Heisman favorites are set to meet in Eugene in the biggest matchup of the week. Indiana has proven most of the critics wrong so far, but this will be the team's toughest test yet. It will also be a call to arms for Oregon, which is trying to repeat as Big Ten champions behind the arm of Dante Moore, who has exceeded all expectations this season. Success with this bet will depend on Fernando Mendoza's ability to score against an imposing Oregon defense, and while that could be a tall order, the game has all the markings of a high-scoring affair that could go back and forth for four quarters. I'm not fond of the spread in this one, but I'll gladly take a stab at this total, with a final in the 60s a distinct possibility.
Over 43.5 Texas vs Oklahoma
Although last season's Red River Rivalry failed to hit this total, it exceeded this number nine times previously, and I'm inclined to go with the prevailing trend. Although John Mateer is officially questionable and could sit out, Michael Hawkins had a great showing last week, and he should be able to handle the job again. As usual, Texas' offensive mettle relies on Arch Manning's resolve after an embarrassing loss to Florida, but a strong statement from Texas has to appear at some point. The Longhorns will rely on their defense, but Oklahoma should be able to overcome and push past this total.
[LOGO] Clemson (-14) @ Boston College
Boston College has often given the Tigers a hard time during their conference schedules in the past, but this is an especially bad version of the Eagles this year. They enter this game with a 1-4 record and are winless in the FBS. Clemson made quick work of North Carolina last week, and Cade Klubnik, Adam Randall and Antonio Williams are finally starting to establish a rhythm. I don't expect this game to be close, as the Tigers are too strong on both sides of the ball.
Tennessee (-12.5) @ Arkansas
I'd like this game a lot more if it were in Knoxville, but I don't think it really matters here. Bobby Petrino has inherited a team with several holes, and the offense is almost entirely dependent on a good outing from Taylen Green. He struggled mightily against Notre Dame last week and didn't do enough to close the deal against Memphis. I think Tennessee falls somewhere in between these two teams, but has the same kind of offensive firepower and defensive mettle that Notre Dame was able to achieve against the defense. Joey Aguilar should have a big game, and he'll help the Vols to at least a two-touchdown win margin.
Last Week: 3-2-0 This Season: 12-18-0
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