Michigan vs Texas: Predictions and Picks for the Citrus Bowl
The Michigan Wolverines (9-3) and the Texas Longhorns (9-3) will face off in Orlando on New Year's Eve for the 80th running of the Citrus Bowl, and we've got college football picks, predictions and best bets for the tilt. Both teams are licking their wounds after being left out of the College Football Playoff, and like many other programs, Michigan and Texas are dealing with their share of transfers, NFL opt-outs and injuries. We'll do a rundown of these absences, but first, we'll take a look at the Vegas numbers for the contest.
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Michigan vs Texas Betting Odds for Citrus Bowl
Spread: Texas -7.0 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Michigan +7.0 (BetMGM)
Total: Over 48.5 (BetMGM), Under 48.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas -285 (Fanatics Sportsbook), Michigan +250 (BetMGM)
The line for this game opened at 4.5, so early money for Texas has sent the line shooting upward. We've seen only minor adjustments in the team total, and the margins have gradually widened to one of the biggest gaps we've seen this bowl season.
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Michigan vs Texas Betting Picks for Citrus Bowl
Let's take a look at the players who will or could be absent for the game, and the potential impact.
Michigan
The Wolverines are expected to have more players out for injury, but these are the most impactful players. While Jordan Marshall will play and should keep the run game afloat, Moore's skills as a pass rusher is a massive loss for the Wolverines. Barham has also been a key component of the offense.
Texas
- RB Quintrevion Wisner
- RB CJ Baxter
- RB Jerrick Gibson
- WR DeAndre Moore
- S Michael Taaffe
- LB Anthony Hill
- LB Liona Lefau
- DB Malik Muhammad
- DB Jaylon Guilbeau
- EDGE Trey Moore
- EDGE Ethan Burke
Texas will be incredibly thin at running back. They'll be forced to rely on Christian Clark and James Simon, who haven't seen many snaps. The defensive losses are significant, as All-American safety Michael Taaffe will be out, and the linebacker corps will be decimated by the losses of Hill and LeFau.
So what does this all mean? Among these absences, there is one certainty, and that is at the quarterback position.
Michigan's Bryce Underwood and Texas' Arch Manning are both slated to play. The arrival of Kyle Whittingham has eased some of the turmoil surrounding the dismissal and arrest of Sherrone Moore, and early reports suggest that Whittingham convinced Underwood not to enter the portal.
Manning decided to stick around as well, but he's setting himself up to be the Number one pick in 2027 if he can show the kind of improvement he hopes for. If we look at quarterback play in a vacuum, the scales tip in Manning's favor. He'll likely throw the ball more due to the inexperience of his running back corps.
For Underwood, he'll rely on Jordan Marshall to establish the run game, and then he'll need to exploit the Texas absences and look for busted coverages in the secondary. The number of defensive absences tilts the pendulum in favor of Underwood, but does Texas' reliance on an inexperienced defense cancel out Underwood's general lack of potency as a passer? Probably not. Missing players definitely mean something, but if your program has sufficient depth, the absences aren't as big of an issue.
Still, Texas' lack of experience in the running game and a defense without several of its stars is tough to swallow. The absences present a great opportunity for Michigan, but I also have a hunch that the intangibles point to a potentially low total.
If I had to pick a team, I'd take Michigan and the points, but the best bet is probably the under. I'm going to offer up both bets as sound wagers.
Michigan vs Texas Expert Picks: Michigan +7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 48.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Michigan vs Texas Predictions for Citrus Bowl
Kyle Whittingham's hiring is already showing a morale shift for the Wolverines, and I think that wrinkle gives Michigan a momentum advantage over the Longhorns, who are still complaining about their exclusion from the College Football Playoff.
Texas will be forced to play a different game on both sides of the ball. The defense could show some bouts of confusion, and the play of Christian Clark and James Simon will determine how effectively the Texas offense operates. With Texas' best tacklers missing, the key stat in the conclusion will be Jordan Marshall's rushing total. If he goes for close to 100 yards, the Wolverines have likely notched a W.
Arch Manning is the other factor. Can he maximize his passing effectiveness with inexperienced running backs and a tough Michigan defensive front? Manning has shown great improvement this year, but leading a skeleton crew might be too tall a task.
Michigan 20 - Texas 17
Michigan vs Texas Player Props for Wednesday, December 31
Arch Manning, QB, Texas - Under 253.5 Passing Yards (Underdog)
Manning will get close to this number, but Michigan's defense should have enough answers for Michigan's passing game.
Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan Over 165.5 Passing Yards (Underdog)
Underwood beat this total seven times this season, and he had two of his best passing performances of the year before running into a wall against Ohio State. Texas' defense has to be downgraded for this game, and I think Underwood has the necessary skills to take advantage.
