Indiana vs Oregon CFP Best Bets for the Peach Bowl
We'll get the final piece to the National Title puzzle Friday evening from Atlanta, when 13-1 Oregon and 14-0 Indiana square off in a rematch from an October 11th regular-season meeting. We've got your college football picks, predictions and best bets for this CFP Semifinal matchup.
Both are off impressive quarterfinal wins, resulting in both teams improving to a 9-5 ATS mark. The Ducks' games have gone over the number seven times, while the Hoosiers have gone over the mark eight times.
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Indiana vs Oregon CFP Betting Odds for the Peach Bowl
Spread: Indiana -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Oregon +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 48.5 (BetMGM); Under 48.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Indiana -180 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Oregon +151 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Stagnant. That's the story here. There are a few four-point spreads at other books, and it's possible that's the trend we see throughout the day Friday. But this line opened at (-3.5) and hasn't flinched, so much so that the moneylines have stayed largely the same. Indiana opened at (-183) and Oregon (+152).
The total has moved all of a point since opening at 47.5. Since we don't have a lot to break down here, let's quickly revisit their in-season meeting. Indiana won 30-20 at Oregon as 6.5-point underdogs. What do you know, that's a 10-point swing in lines from that game to this one. The total was nearly spot on at 51.5.
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Indiana vs Oregon CFP Betting Picks for the Peach Bowl
If you're a supporter of the Ducks, you can point to the previous matchup being tied 20-20 in the fourth quarter. I'd unfortunately like to point out that their two touchdowns were on a 44-yard deep ball to Malik Benson and a pick-six interception return. They only had one real sustained drive leading to a field goal, as the second drive was eight plays and 22 yards. Conversely, all of Indiana's touchdown drives spanned at least nine plays and 75 yards.
I was thoroughly impressed with the Ducks' defense dismantling Texas Tech last week, and they'll surely have a different game plan to attack this go-around offensively. But I'm not certain it's going to matter. No one has run on Indiana all season except Old Dominion in Week 1; they've fixed that issue. And I don't trust Dante Moore enough to win this game on his own. He threw two interceptions against them previously, and had one last week against the Red Raiders. The Hoosiers sacked him a season-high six times and held him to a season-low 5.5 ypa.
Oregon won't be a pushover, and perhaps Indiana is due a loss in what seems to be a era of growing parity, but I can't get there with the Ducks outright winning. I don't hate an alt-line parlay or teaser in this situation. I just don't know which way I prefer to go, Oregon (+10.5) or Indiana (+3.5), with whatever under you prefer to get the odds you like. Only Ohio State and Penn State have kept it inside of this number, and the Hoosiers' date with destiny continues on.
Indiana vs Oregon CFP Peach Bowl Expert Pick: Indiana -3.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Oregon vs Indiana Predictions for the Peach Bowl
Indiana and Miami have proven to be the most physical teams across both lines throughout this playoff. One team is in, the other needs to hold serve. This can be perhaps where Oregon finds a slight edge in the rematch; they've been hit in the mouth by the Hoosiers before, but no one had faced Miami previously.
We've seen over the last two-plus weeks how hard it is to beat a team twice. Alabama couldn't do it to Georgia, Oklahoma couldn't do it to Alabama, and Georgia couldn't do it to Ole Miss. Or perhaps that's just an SEC thing and has no bearing whatsoever Friday night.
Oregon remains capable of winning, but I just find Indiana to have far more mojo. Fernando Mendoza will make fewer mistakes, Roman Hemby will grind out tough yards and find a rhythm thanks to volume, while Oregon's rotation of backs will fail to find the same groove. A four-quarter game that may not rival last night's drama, but only because it's lower scoring.
Indiana 24 - Oregon 20
Oregon vs Indiana CFP Semifinal Player Prop Picks
Roman Hemby, RB, Indiana over 1.5 receiving yards (Prize Picks, Underdog)
Hemby isn't heavily involved in the Hoosiers' passing attack, with only 14 catches all season. But he's failed to record one grab just four times, and gone under this mark in just one other game. We're talking about one catch here. Oregon gave him a 2-25 line in their earlier meeting, allowed six catches and 25 yards to Red Raider backs last week and five for 55 yards to JMU. I also really like over 59.5 rushing yards on Hemby strictly based on volume.
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon over 221.5 passing yards (Underdog)
I'm going back to the well from last week, as Moore was sailing over his passing yardage prop at halftime before barely completing a second-half pass. And yes, I'm taking Indiana because I don't believe in Moore winning this for the Ducks. But just like last week, Oregon is going to be in a pass-heavy game script with no ability to run. Here's to banking on Will Stein having time to manage the portal at Kentucky while also having a better gameplan for this passing game.
