NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Week 16 edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

Coming off of a couple forgettable weeks in a row, we posted a respectable 10-6 ATS record in Week 15, including hitting our best bet of the week with the Bears easily covering 7.5 at home against the Browns.

The Steelers (-3.0), Colts (+14.0) and Saints (+2.5) coming through were among the other highlights, though we missed badly on the Bengals to cover 2.5 at home against the Ravens, as well as the Cowboys to cover 5.5 against Minnesota on Sunday night.

Focusing in on Week 16, we're presented with what projects to be one of the most competitive slates of the season. As of publication, nine of 16 games are lined at 3.0 or less, and that doesn't even include Gardner Minshew going up against the Titans or the Jets-Saints showdown in New Orleans.

After closing with four double-digit favorites a week ago, only the Bills (-10.0 at CLE) and Texans (-14.0 vs. LV) are laying 10.0 or more points this week.

You can find my thoughts and score predictions on each of those games, and the entire NFL Week 16 slate, below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best calls of Week 15:

• Steelers -3.0 vs. Dolphins: Pittsburgh's offense needed a full half to warm up, but fading Tua Tagovailoa in cold-weather games continues to be an extremely profitable strategy.
• Colts +14.0 at Seahawks: We knew every double-digit favorite wasn't going to cover, and the Seahawks' offense continues to battle sluggish starts.

Worst calls of Week 15:

• Bengals +2.5 vs. Ravens: Frankly, I regret not backing off of this pick after Joe Burrow's comments heading into the game. Baltimore needed only 40 offensive plays to roll to a three-score win.
• Cardinals +10.0 at Texans: When this number hit double-digits, I felt like there was some value on Arizona. Roughly 45 seconds into the game, it was clear that there was not, in fact, value on Arizona.
• Predicting the Raiders would score 14 points

Last week: 10-6 ATS; 10-6 SU; best bet won (CHI -7.5)

On the season: 109-110-5 ATS; 143-81-1 SU; 7-8 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Spread picks for NFL Week 16

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -1.5

Total: 44.5

When these teams met back in Week 11, the Rams held on for a 21-19 victory as Jason Myers' last-second, 61-yard field goal came up short. It was one of the weirder games of the year for the Rams, who jumped out to a 14-3 lead before failing to score on seven of their final eight drives of the game. Seattle out-gained the Rams 414 to 249 and limited LA to 12 first downs, but four Sam Darnold interceptions ultimately sealed their fate.

Heading into the rematch, this time in Seattle, the Rams are coming off of back-to-back 40-plus-point games, while Seattle narrowly escaped what would've been a disastrous loss to the Colts, led by a 44-year-old man who had not played football in five years. While the Rams did take a bizarre loss to the Panthers in Week 13, it certainly feels as though they're playing at a higher level right now – especially on offense. Seattle has quietly struggled on that end in recent weeks and has fallen to 30th in the NFL in EPA per rush.

Working in the Seahawks' favor is the (expected) absence of Davante Adams, who left the Rams' Week 15 win over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Adams played in the first matchup against Seattle but was held to just one catch for one yard on eight targets. If Adams does, indeed, sit out, the Rams will obviously lean even more heavily on Puka Nacua, in addition to what's been a surprisingly productive tight end room.

Defensively, both units have been among the best in the NFL all season, though Seattle holds a slight edge in most advanced metrics, including EPA per play and success rate. However, the Rams have played a tougher schedule of opposing offenses.

My initial lean was on the Rams, but the Adams absence definitely matters, and Seattle's defense held up well against LA's 13-personnel packages in the first meeting. The Seahawks' lack of a running game does worry me -- especially without their starting left tackle -- but it's also highly unlikely (though possible!) that Darnold turns it over four times again.

The pick: Seahawks 23 -- Rams 21

Saturday Slate

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Spread: Eagles -6.5

Total: 44.5

It's tough to put too much stock into a win over the FCS Las Vegas Raiders, but credit goes to the Eagles for handling business in what may have been the fastest game in team history.

To say the Eagles dominated the Raiders would be an understatement, as Vegas managed just 75 total yards, 1.8 yards per play and never truly threatened to score. If we're picking nits, the Eagles' running game was mostly inefficient, but on balance it was exactly the bounceback game Jalen Hurts and the rest of the offense needed.

Now facing the Commanders for the first of two matchups in the final three weeks, it feels like Philly is back on track, but Washington – even without Jayden Daniels – should be a better measuring stick than Kenny Pickett. Even so, the Eagles' defense hasn't been the problem and should have plenty of advantages against Marcus Mariota and a limited group of weapons. Meanwhile, the Commanders' defense continues to establish itself as a bottom-five unit in the NFL, so Philly won't have to play a perfectly clean game to cover the 6.5.

The pick: Eagles 27 – Commanders 20

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Spread: Packers -1.5

Total: 46.5

With the possible exceptions of the Raiders and Jets (and maybe Panthers), no team had a worse Week 15 than the Packers. On top of blowing a two-score lead and wilting in the second half at Denver, Green Bay lost Micah Parsons to a torn ACL – a crushing blow that will likely knock the Packers out of Super Bowl contention.

First, though, Green Bay needs to sew up a Playoff spot, and following that loss to Denver, the Packers now find themselves all the way down in the 7 seed in the NFC, 1.5 games up on the Lions. The Packers do hold a pair of head-to-head wins over Detroit, but things could get dicey quickly for Green Bay, which hosts the Ravens in Week 17 before heading to Minnesota for the regular-season finale.

With all of that said, a win this week in Chicago would put the Packers back in the driver's seat in the NFC North. This is, of course, a rematch from two weeks ago when Green Bay held on for a 28-21 victory at Lambeau Field, with Keisean Nixon pulling down a game-clinching interception late in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay mostly controlled that game and played with a lead throughout, but the Bears built momentum in the second half and worked the ball into scoring territory on five of their final six drives. Without Parsons – coupled with the loss of Devonte Wyatt for the season – this time around, it will be difficult to trust the Packers' defense to play at close to the same level, especially given their liabilities at cornerback, which were on full display last week.

On the other side of the ball, the Packers could be without Christian Watson, who left last week's game in an ambulance but somehow avoided a major injury. In the first matchup, Watson caught four passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns – including a 41-yarder to make it a two-score game in the third quarter. There is some optimism that Watson could push through, but the outlook isn't so rosy for Evan Williams and Zach Tom, as of publication.

Green Bay is much better-positioned to compensate for the absence of Watson than it is Parsons, so I don't expect the Packers to have much trouble moving it on a vulnerable Bears defense.

If Jordan Love can play a clean game, the Packers can steal a key divisional win. The same goes for Caleb Williams, but I like the Bears to lean heavily on the run, control time of possession and win a close game at home, even without both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden.

The pick: Bears 24 – Packers 21

Sunday Early Slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: Bucs -3.0

Total: 45.0

We kick off the Sunday slate with the No One Wants to Win the NFC South Bowl between a pair of 7-7 teams. After jumping out to a 6-2 start, the Bucks have dropped five of their last six, including back-to-back inexcusable losses to the Saints and Falcons at home.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have now alternated wins and losses in eight straight games, compiling one of the strangest and most confusing resumes in recent history in the process. The Panthers' loss to the Saints last week marked their 12th straight SU loss as a favorite – easily the longest streak in NFL history.

On paper, I still consider the Bucs a significantly better team than Carolina, but Baker Mayfield's play has fallen off over the last several weeks, and the Bucs' secondary has somehow morphed into one of the least-dependable in the NFL. Suffice it to say, it's usually not a good sign when your opponent sets the franchise record for penalties and still manages to win a game on the road.

With both teams measuring very low on the Trust Meter right now, this feels like a toss-up game. I'll stick to my priors and take the Bucs to cover the field goal, but we'll go ahead and make this the Nick Whalen Stay-Away of the Week.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 – Panthers 20

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns

Spread: Bills -10.5

Total: 42.0

Shedeur Sanders has been a fun wrinkle to the Browns season, and has made them more watch-able, but they haven't exactly been more competitive. After falling to San Francisco and Tennessee, the Browns managed just three points in an ugly loss to the Bears on Sunday with Sanders tossing three interceptions.

Cleveland now returns home and could be catching the Bills in a mini-lull coming off of their biggest win of the season – and with the Eagles looming on the schedule in Week 17 – but it's difficult to trust the Browns to do much offensively. Buffalo can be exploited on the ground, but the Browns' offensive line has completely crumbled, and Quinshon Judkins is averaging 3.0 yards per carry over his last seven games. 

We won't be surprised if Buffalo gets off to another sluggish start, but over the course of four quarters we'll take the Bills to eventually pull away. Cleveland can cover by the hook, though.

The pick: Bills 27 – Browns 17

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Cowboys -2.5

Total: 49.5

Despite back-to-back ugly defensive performances against Detroit and Minnesota, the Cowboys are favored at home against a likely AFC playoff team. Of course, the Chargers are still banged up, but they've found ways to pull out impressive wins over Kansas City and Philly, forcing seven turnovers and holding those teams to 32 total points.

Shutting down the Cowboys' offense will be a much tougher task, but Dallas' defense has now re-collapsed after showing signs of life mid-season. We'll need to see more from the Chargers, offensively, but LA's defense – a top-7 unit in EPA per play, success rate an EPA per pass – could be the latest to make life difficult on Dak Prescott and Co.

This line is moving in favor of the Cowboys, but we'll grab points with the Chargers as a road dog.

The pick: Chargers 30 – Cowboys 28

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints

Spread: Saints -4.5

Total: 40.5

These are two teams we've struggled to figure out this season, but we finally faded the Jets – and rode with the Saints – at the right time in Week 15.

New Orleans has now logged impressive wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks behind improved play from Tyler Shough and a defense that's been one of the most undervalued units in the NFL this season. Entering Week 16, New Orleans ranks 10th in EPA per play and third (!!) in EPA per rush, while the Jets just surrendered 48 points and six touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence.

With Brady Cook set to make another start for the Jets, we'll roll with the Saints to win at home.

The pick: Saints 23 – Jets 17

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Total: 44.5

Coming off of a shutout win over Washington, and an impressive victory over Dallas on Sunday night, I'm a little surprised Minnesota isn't getting more respect – even on the road. The Vikings' defense remains a bankable unit, and while I still have many, many questions about J.J. McCarthy, he fared well in those two matchups against very gettable defenses.

The Giants quality as another one of those units, ranking bottom-five in the NFL in just about every key advanced defensive metric, including dead-last in EPA per rush and 30th in EPA per play. McCarthy is always capable of an implosion, however, and Jaxson Dart's mobility could present some issues.

Still, the Giants are the more-flawed team, so we'll side with Minnesota at the number. This is firmly in stay-away territory.

The pick: Vikings 23 – Giants 20

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Total: 37.5

The Chiefs are officially out of the playoff picture. That, in and of itself, is a jarring sentence to type, but it's even more jarring to type that with three weeks remaining. Kansas City's offense was once again a mess last week against the Chargers, managing just 13 points in an ugly loss after scoring only 10 points against Houston in Week 15.

In what is now a completely meaningless game in Nashville, it's tough to know what to expect from Kansas City with Gardner Minshew taking over for the injured Patrick Mahomes. In vintage Minshew fashion, he came on in relief of Mahomes on the Chiefs' final drive, picked up a couple of first downs, then threw an awful interception to officially close the book on KC's season. Still, Minshew is a capable backup with plenty of experience. And, frankly, Mahomes hasn't been playing at close to an elite level for most of the last two months.

It does appear as though the Chiefs will be without Rashee Rice (concussion), however, and the absence of a reliable running game will be an issue against a solid Titans run defense that was able to shut down Christian McCaffrey last week.

We'll take the Chiefs to show some pride and pick up a win on the road, but the Titans can cover the 3.5 and threaten to win outright.

The pick: Chiefs 20 – Titans 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Bengals -4.0

Total: 50.5

This line opened at Bengals -1.5, soared up to 5.5 and has now settled at 4.0 after the news that Miami will officially bench Tua Tagovailoa and roll with rookie Quinn Ewers this week. On one hand, Ewers has only played a handful of snaps in one game this season. On the other, Tua was arguably the worst regular starter in the NFL, so the bar is set pretty low.

Personally, I'm not sure Ewers will be much, if any, of a downgrade from Tua, and he gets a soft landing spot against what remains a terrible Bengals defense. From a total yardage perspective, Cincy appeared to hold up decently against the Ravens last week, but Baltimore ran only 40 offensive plays and had its second-best yards-per-play game of the season. 

Meanwhile, Miami has shown some improvement on the defensive end of late, but that all came crashing down on Monday night in Pittsburgh. After a slow start, the Steelers ripped off four straight touchdown drives to essentially put the game away midway through the third quarter.

De'Von Achane should have his way with the Bengals' defense, but Cincinnati – with Tee Higgins presumably back this week – still has the far superior offensive personnel. As long as we don't get another Joe Burrow disaster game, we'll ride with the Bengals to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Bengals 31 – Dolphins 24

Sunday Afternoon Slate

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Falcons -2.5

Total: 47.5

Sneaky-interesting game between a pair of eliminated teams in the NFC. With Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, the Cardinals have turned into a full-on air raid attack, throwing at easily the highest rate in the NFL over the last month-and-a-half. During that span, Brissett is attempting nearly 46 passes per game, while the Cardinals' running game has all but evaporated.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off of an impressive road win in Tampa Bay spearheaded by monster performances from Kirk Cousins – yes, Kirk Cousins – and Kyle Pitts. After facing the Rams and Texans over the last two weeks, the Cardinals should be able to find more success against the Falcons' defense, though Atlanta has more so struggled against the run than the pass. Quietly, Atlanta ranks third in sack rate and 13th in EPA per pass.

On the other side, this profiles as a plus matchup for the Falcons, as Arizona struggles to generate pressure and has fallen to 29th in defensive success rate. The Cardinals have allowed at least 40 points in four of their last six games, and no team has given up more rushing production over the last month.

We've lost a lot of money on Arizona this season – the Cardinals have one (1) win since Week 2 – and taking the Cards to cover last week ranks among our worst picks of the year. Trusting the Falcons as a road favorite is equally dubious, but we'll ride with Atlanta to pull out a road win behind what should be a monster day for Bijan Robinson.

The pick: Falcons 31 – Cardinals 27

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos -3.0

Total: 47.5

For the second straight week, I've had to ask myself: is Trevor Lawrence good? Did he just play the best game of his career? We do need to keep in mind that these last two Jaguars wins have come against the Colts – with Riley Leonard – and the Jets – with Brady Cook – but those are the kind of games the Jags of old would've found a way to lose.

Since his four-turnover performance against Arizona in Week 13, Lawrence has completed 53-of-89 passes for 803 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions, while tacking only 92 rushing yards and another score. Efficiency-wise, he could certainly be better, but this is arguably the best three-game stretch of Lawrence's career, and it's clear he's finally meshing with Liam Coen in a way he wasn't earlier this season.

Taking advantage of a soft stretch of schedule is part of the equation, however, and heading to Denver will be the Jags' toughest test since getting blown out by the Rams in Week 7. If Jacksonville is able to effectively run the ball – something they were not able to do against the Jets – this is a game they can steal on the road behind a defense that's climbed into the top-five in EPA per play and EPA per pass on the season.

For as well as Lawrence is playing right now, Bo Nix is also coming off of perhaps his best game as a pro in Denver's come-from-behind win over the Packers last week. Nix has battled on-and-off performances all season, but he was able to dice up the Packers' secondary behind an offensive line that mostly neutralized Green Bay's pass rush, even before Micah Parsons went out in the second half.

Ultimately, this game will come down to which still-shaky quarterback blinks first. Both defenses should be able to control the game, but I have more faith in the Broncos' pass rush getting to Trevor Lawrence than I do the Jags' getting to Nix.

The pick: Broncos 23 – Jaguars 17

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions

Spread: Lions -6.5

Total: 50.0

Big game for both teams as the Lions look to keep pace in the NFC Playoff race, while the Steelers look to maintain their lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. Realistically, the division may simply come down to Ravens-Steelers in Week 18, but if the Steelers can steal in a win in Detroit, they could bolster their 1.0-game lead with Baltimore hosting the Pats on Sunday night.

With that said, I don't love this matchup for the Pittsburgh going up against one of the highest-powered offenses in the NFL. Defensively, the Lions have issues, but Detroit was able to move the ball effectively on the Rams last week and should be able to take advantage of a Steelers defense that ranks 25th in EPA per rush and slightly below league-average against the pass. 

This should be a much better spot for the Lions' running game after Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery were held to just 72 yards on 20 carries in Week 15. Pittsburgh did hold up well against De'Von Achane and the Dolphins, but prior to that gave up 217 rushing yards to Baltimore and 249 to the Bills. 

I expect the Steelers to continue to find creative ways to generate offense, but in a game that could require them to score 30-plus, I don't trust them to keep up.

The pick: Lions 34 – Steelers 24

Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans

Spread: Texans -14.5

Total: 37.5

Much like Colts-Seahawks, this is the is it a little too obvious? game of the week. But unlike last week, we're not taking the points with the heavy road underdog.

Part of our read on the Colts was that, outside of Philip Rivers, Indy still has a really strong roster. That is simply not the case for the Raiders, who are coming off of one of the most-lopsided games in the NFL this season. In a 31-0 loss to the Eagles, Vegas managed only 75 total yards of offense – the fewest in any game this season – and 1.8 yards per play. The Raiders are now responsible for five of the 15 worst YPP games of the year.

It's possible the Texans could take their foot off the gas in the midst of a six-game winning streak, but they're still battling Jacksonville for the AFC South, so I don't see this as much of a letdown spot. Whether it's Geno Smith or another Kenny Pickett start, this is a nightmare spot for the Raiders' offense, which currently has a team total of 11.5. 

The pick: Texans 27 – Raiders 10

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Spread: Ravens -3.0

Total: 47.5

One of our biggest misses last week was taking the Bengals to cover 2.5 – and win outright – against Baltimore. While the Ravens started with a pair of punts, then an interception, they scored on their next three drives and added a late pick-six to cruise to a 24–0 win.

While the Bengals did, of course, handle the Ravens on Thanksgiving night, we probably should have known better, considering Baltimore moved the ball well in that first meeting but committed a litany of turnovers and gameplan errors. Either way, the Ravens picked up a much-needed win and got a stellar defensive performance from a unit that gave up 32 points and six red zone trips to Cincinnati two weeks ago.

On the other side, New England's 10-game winning streak came to an end last week after the Pats blew an early 21-0 lead at home to the Bills. There's no shame in losing to Josh Allen, but it was still a shocking collapse by the Pats, who forced three straight punts to open the game and were ripping off chunk plays at will. Credit to the Bills for picking themselves up and stringing together five straight touchdown drives while allowing just one score – a TreVeyon Henderson 65-yarder – on the Pats' final five possessions.

Coming out of that defeat, the Pats now find themselves in a spot they haven't been in since Week 4. Baltimore has the quarterback and running game to give the Pats trouble, but I'm still hesitant to fully buy in on the Ravens, who've faced a soft second-half schedule of opposing defenses and still struggled in a good chunk of those games.

This is a dicey spot with the public jumping on New England, while Baltimore is pulling in sharp money, but this is a spot where I'm inclined to go full Sheep Mode and ride with the Pats.

The pick: Patriots 27 – Ravens 24

Monday Night Football

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: 49ers -6.0

Total: 46.0

San Francisco once again handled business against an inferior opponent last week, winning and covering – thanks to a late field goal – against the Titans. The Niners are now 6-2-1 ATS as a favorite this season and should be in another advantageous spot against the Philip Rivers-led Colts.

However, Indy is coming off of an impressive, near-SU-victory in Seattle last week, holding the Seahawks without a touchdown and doing just enough offensively – against one of the best defenses in the league – to push the Seahawks to the brink. Obviously, Rivers' lack of mobility and arm strength severely limits the Colts' offense, but this is a much better matchup against a defense that ranks 25th in EPA per play and 31st in opponent success rate.

For Indy, the formula should be to again rely heavily on the run behind Jonathan Taylor, who carried 25 times last week. Over the last month, teams have been able to keep Taylor in check, but the Colts have also faced a brutal stretch of defenses in Kansas City, Houston, Jacksonville and Seattle. The Niners rank 21st against the rush and have given up 135+ yards to Tennessee and Cleveland over the last two weeks.

Ultimately, this game will come down to whether Indy's defense can show up against an efficient Niners' passing game that's rolling right now, but we'll cautiously grab points with the Colts under the belief that they can sustain drives and play keep-away from Brock Purdy and Co.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Colts 23