NFL Betting Roundtable: Super Bowl 60 Picks
Super Bowl Sunday is finally here. Our resident NFL experts have tapped in with their best NFL bets and props for Seahawks vs Patriots.
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Super Bowl Expert Picks
Eric Timm
As I laid out in my Super Bowl Best Bets article, I expect both coaches to rely on their run games to alleviate pressure on their inexperienced QBs and I also expect both coaches to count on their defenses to stop said run games. I think this will have a direct effect on the game early on as both teams settle in. As such, I like just about every first half under I can find, but for the purposes of this article, I'm going to focus on both QBs.
Sam Darnold's first quarter passing yards number is 48.5. In the regular season, Darnold averaged 49.3 first quarter yards passing. With the Gonzalez-JSN matchup throwing water on big plays, and a concentrated effort to run the ball and let Darnold ease into the game, I like the under here.
The same methodology can be applied to Drake Maye, whose first-quarter passing yards number is 46.5. Maye averaged just under 52 passing yards in his first quarters this season but Seattle represents one of the better defenses he has seen all year. At -110, I'm going to play on each and hope the game script goes according to plan.
Long Shot: I like to throw pizza money on a couple of long shot props and here's one that I think has particular teeth: Will there be OT? YES at +1000. First, the game script, which I've covered a bunch. Conservative, low scoring, keep it close. It doesn't get any closer than tied at the end of regulation. Second, the playoffs this year have been INSANE! The Wild Card Round had three games that went down to the last possession. Two of four Divisional Round games went to OT. And both Conference Championship games went to the wire. It seems theatrically appropriate that two completely unexpected teams go to OT to decide the biggest prize in the sport.
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Michael Rathburn
Kenneth Walker UNDER 72.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -110)
The Patriots' run defense transformed into an elite unit with Milton Williams (14 games), allowing only 76.2 yards per game, 3.5 yards per carry, and just 3 rushing touchdowns. Conversely, without him (5 games), they allowed 145.7 yards per game, 5 yards per carry, and 8 rushing touchdowns
Walker's props typically land in the 45-65 range so this is inflated based on his recent games of 62, 116, and 97. The odds should also be as close to EVEN money as you can get. Walker's rushing props range from 70.5 - 74.5 so look at options in that range and the odds.
Mike Barner
Mack Hollins 25+ receiving yards (-112 FanDuel) for 1 Unit
Hollins has quietly become an important part of the Patriots' offense. In his return from an abdominal injury, he caught both of his targets for 51 yards in the AFC Championship game against the Broncos. Dating back to the regular season, Hollins has posted at least 25 receiving yards in nine of his last 11 games.
Hollins only had a 13.5% target share for the Patriots during the regular season. However, he accounted for 19.3% of their air yards and had an average depth of target of 12.8 yards. It could only take a couple of receptions for him to hit this over.
Be sure to check the updated NFL picks and props for the latest odds and projections for your Super Bowl 60 prop bets.
