A packed Week 16 schedule leaves us with a lot of options for the Sunday FanDuel NFL DFS slate. Let's highlight some of the top players to consider when crafting your lineups.
The Games
A lot of the focus of NFL DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.
| Over-Under | Road Team | Road Team Total | Home Team | Home Team Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.5 | Buccaneers | 23.5 | Panthers | 21.5 |
| 41.5 | Bills | 26.5 | Browns | 15.5 |
| 49.5 | Chargers | 23.5 | Cowboys | 25.5 |
| 40.5 | Jets | 16.5 | Saints | 23.5 |
| 43.5 | Vikings | 22.5 | Giants | 20.5 |
| 37.5 | Chiefs | 19.5 | Titans | 16.5 |
| 47.5 | Bengals | 25.5 | Dolphins | 21.5 |
| 48 | Falcons | 25.5 | Cardinals | 23.5 |
| 46.5 | Jaguars | 21.5 | Broncos | 24.5 |
| 51.5 | Steelers | 22.5 | Lions | 29.5 |
| 37.5 | Raiders | 11.5 | Texans | 26.5 |
There are two games with totals below 40 points but three with at least 48; the favorites with the highest totals include the Lions, Texans and Bills.
Value Options
Jordan Mason, MIN at NYG ($6,000): Mason continues to split carries with Aaron Jones, receiving 35 rushing attempts over the last four games while Jones got 41. With his limited workload, Mason ran for just 170 yards and one touchdown during that span.
Although Mason only has one recent touchdown, he was given seven red-zone carries over the last four games versus just three for Jones. The red-zone carries are what makes Mason appealing for this matchup: in addition to allowing 5.89 yards per carry to running backs, the Giants have given up 13 rushing touchdowns.
Audric Estime, NO vs. NYJ ($4,900): Injuries are piling up at running back for the Saints. Alvin Kamara (knee) has missed the last three games and there have been no positive updates regarding his status against the Jets. Devin Neal (hamstring) has been filling in, but he is now out for the season. That leaves Estime and Evan Hull ($5,400) to lead the way.
Neither Estime nor Hull is likely to receive the bulk of the workload. That's why rolling with Estime at his cheaper salary might be more appealing. It's certainly a matchup to attack because the Jets have allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to running backs. Estime had three catches last week and appears to be in line to receive more passing game work than Hull, too.
Other Value Options
QB Tyler Shough, NO vs. NYJ ($6,800)
QB Kirk Cousins, ATL at ARI ($6,700)
RB Omarion Hampton, LAC at DAL ($6,800)
RB Aaron Jones Sr., MIN at NYG ($6,700)
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG vs. MIN ($6,300)
WR Keenan Allen, LAC at DAL ($6,100)
WR Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG vs. MIN ($6,000)
WR Xavier Worthy, KC at TEN ($5,600)
TE Darren Waller, MIA vs. CIN ($5,500)
TE Evan Engram, DEN vs. JAC ($4,800)
yeahStacks to Consider
Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jared Goff ($8,100) has back-to-back games with at least 300 passing yards, and he now has 29 touchdowns versus just five interceptions this season. His average target depth is only 6.7 yards, but his receivers help make up for it by averaging 6.4 yards after the catch. That includes his top target Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,200), who is averaging 5.0 yards after the catch and is targeted on 31.4 percent of Goff's passes.
The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game in the league, and their 182 receptions allowed to wide receivers is the second-most. Combine that with the Lions playing at home, and the duo of Goff and St. Brown could provide some gaudy production.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
The Vikings have had a favorable schedule for their offense recently, facing the Commanders (26.8 points allowed per game) and Cowboys (30.0) in the last two weeks. That helped J.J. McCarthy ($6,500) total six touchdowns in that span, and he now faces a Giants defense that's allowed 28.3 points per game this season and ranks inside the bottom-10 in the league in passing yards and rushing yards allowed per game. It doesn't feel great stacking Justin Jefferson ($8,400) with him based on Jefferson's hefty price and lack of recent production, but this matchup makes the strategy at least worth considering.
Other Stacks to Consider
Chargers – Justin Herbert ($8,000) + Ladd McConkey ($7,000)
Texans – C.J. Stroud ($7,200) + Nico Collins ($8,500)
Cardinals – Jacoby Brissett ($7,500) + Trey McBride ($8,200)
High-Price Heroes
De'Von Achane, MIA vs. CIN ($9,800): The Dolphins have made a change at quarterback, benching Tua Tagovailoa for Quinn Ewers, who attempted eight passes in a lopsided loss to the Browns in Week 7, completing five for 53 yards. This is a soft landing spot for him, considering the Bengals have allowed fifth-most passing yards per game.
This still has the makings of a run-heavy approach for the Dolphins' offense. The Bengals struggle in that area, allowing the most rushing yards per game in the league. Meanwhile, Achane already has three games with at least 21 carries and 120 rushing yards since Week 10, so the sky's the limit in this matchup.
Bo Nix, DEN vs. JAC ($7,600): Nix stepped up in a big way at home against the Packers last week, throwing for 302 yards and four touchdowns. He has two games with four touchdown passes this season and both came at home. In 15 career home games, he has thrown 33 touchdowns and averaged 251.9 passing yards. In 16 road games, he has 19 touchdowns and averaged 203.3 passing yards.
At home Sunday against the Jaguars, Nix faces a defense that has 18 interceptions but also allowed the 11th-most FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks. Add in his rushing upside, and Nix comes into this game with a high floor.
The Smash Spot
Bijan Robinson, ATL at ARI ($9,600): Robinson enters this game with some added rest after the Falcons played the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football last week. He was busy in the matchup, turning 19 rushing attempts and 11 targets into 175 total yards and a touchdown. That was the fifth straight game in which he recorded at least 92 total yards, and he had four touchdowns in that span.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are playing no defense as the season winds down, having allowed at least 40 points in four of their last six games.
